You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The news flow concerning the coronavirus pandemic is fluid, along with policy actions, and as such markets will likely remain prone to large swings in either direction, although a risk-off bias remains. Central banks are trying to ease tensions in the credit markets, while politicians are attempting to aid their economies (which they have closed down in order to contain the virus spread).
What will eventually turn the tide? A vaccine, or some cure for the covid for sure! But until then, and until there is more certainty and confidence on when the crisis will fade and how the global economy will look once it does, the pattern of deep sell offs of risk and vicious technical corrections will continue.
Keep positions small and manage your trades actively during this time.
Themes for the week:
While 2-way trading is key in these conditions, I maintain a broad bearish bias on indices for now, and also on Crude. I stil like USD strength vs. Eur and Gbp especially, but there are curious counter-trend moves in Cad vs. Chf and Jpy. Once again, another week full of opportunities. Just remember to keep your position sizes small, and cast a wide net.
What will eventually turn the tide? A vaccine, or some cure for the covid for sure! But until then, and until there is more certainty and confidence on when the crisis will fade and how the global economy will look once it does, the pattern of deep sell offs of risk and vicious technical corrections will continue.
Keep positions small and manage your trades actively during this time.
Themes for the week:
- Credit market stress and USD demand: desperate companies and banks around the world have been stumping up big premia in recent days in their rush to buy greenbacks -- for trade, debt repayments, or just to hold. Central banks are trying to ease the tension, but keep an eye on credit.
- Covid Spread: markets were spooked once again on Friday as lockdowns started to be implemented in the US. The spread and the death toll of the Covid will continue to attract attention.
- PMIs: these timely indicators will reveal current sentiment in Europe and the UK. This is forward-looking data and the markets will pay close attention. We will now see how much bad news the market has discounted vs. data.
- EM stress: the strong dollar, a dire global economic outlook, tumbling oil prices thanks to waning demand and a Russia/Saudi Arabia production spat as well as rising borrowing costs are taking a huge toll on Emerging Markets.
- EU PMIs (quite important, should be dismal)
- UK PMIs (should also be dismal)
- US PMI (Idem)
- GER IFO (Idem)
- UK CPI (prices could jump as PMIs were showing increases)
- BOE Decision and statement
- US unemployment claims (could skyrocket..)
- US PCE
While 2-way trading is key in these conditions, I maintain a broad bearish bias on indices for now, and also on Crude. I stil like USD strength vs. Eur and Gbp especially, but there are curious counter-trend moves in Cad vs. Chf and Jpy. Once again, another week full of opportunities. Just remember to keep your position sizes small, and cast a wide net.
