You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
This week will be all about the US Tax Reform as the Senate returns from recess, and about FOMC expectations as the new Fed Chairman Powell & the exiting Chair Yellen will both speak. Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales will also be under scrutiny in the US. In Europe, the main issue will be coalition talks in Germany. Elsewhere, OPEC will meet, the RBNZ publishes it's FSR and Canada will issue GDP, Employment and Current Account numbers.
USD: the main focus this week will be the tax bill. Without serious progress, the dollar will likely drop further. Keep a lazy eye on Yellen & Powell also. The second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter & the FOMC's preferred inflation measure (PCE prices) are due.
GBP: nothing much to be aware of beyond Markit Manufacturing PMI. Keep an eye on the Irish government which could collapse ahead of Brexit talks.
EUR: coalition talks in Germany will probably dominate EU news. There is data out (third quarter GDP figures and Manufacturing PMIs will be released for several countries) but EU data hasn't been market moving recently. Markets will also focus on business surveys, CPI and unemployment.
CAD: Banks release Q4 and full fiscal year earnings starting next week; the Bank of Canada will release its semi-annual Financial System Review; beyond that we will see GDP figures, unemployment and current account data will be the highlights of the week. Thursday’s OPEC meeting will center around extending production cuts to the end of next year. Whether this will be confirmed at the meeting will drive the energy market tone in the near-term.
AsiaPac: China will release figures for official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Industrial profits and the Caixin manufacturing PMI will also be closely watched. In Australia, housing data and AIG Manufacturing Index will be in the spotlight. In New Zealand we get the RBNZ's Financial Stability Report - which might be gloomy.
Going into the week I remaain with my bullish bias on US equities & Crude Oil, and I'm also bullish the Euro but with political developments due, things could change quickly.
domenica 26 novembre 2017
domenica 19 novembre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 20.11.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Not much news over the weekend and as such, we should expect a calm open in Wellington tonight. Market participants will be watching the numbers out of Black Friday and Cyber Monday as they are often taken as harbingers of what the overall holiday shopping period will look like. Fed communications and ongoing tax reform negotiations will be in focus with only Nzd CPI & CAD Retail Sales as Tier 1 data prints.
USD: In the US, the FOMC minutes will certainly be scrutinized but don't expect any surprises. Other data on tap includes existing home sales, durable goods, Michigan consumer sentiment and flash PMI figures.
EUR: flash PMI readings, Ger IFO and final estimates for GDP growth will be watched but the main focus in Europe this week will be the ECB minutes.
GBP: the Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver the Autumn Budget. Interviewed on BBC, Hammond said "will seek to ease health service measures in a balanced and measured way", "must deliver 300k new homes per year", "Brexit date not set in stone".
CAD: crude oil will continue to drive CAD flows until the Retail Sales print.
AsiaPac: In Australia, the RBA will publish the minutes from its last meeting.
Going into the week I remain bearish on European indices, Aud & Nzd. I am turning bullish on Gold and Jpy.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Not much news over the weekend and as such, we should expect a calm open in Wellington tonight. Market participants will be watching the numbers out of Black Friday and Cyber Monday as they are often taken as harbingers of what the overall holiday shopping period will look like. Fed communications and ongoing tax reform negotiations will be in focus with only Nzd CPI & CAD Retail Sales as Tier 1 data prints.
USD: In the US, the FOMC minutes will certainly be scrutinized but don't expect any surprises. Other data on tap includes existing home sales, durable goods, Michigan consumer sentiment and flash PMI figures.
EUR: flash PMI readings, Ger IFO and final estimates for GDP growth will be watched but the main focus in Europe this week will be the ECB minutes.
GBP: the Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver the Autumn Budget. Interviewed on BBC, Hammond said "will seek to ease health service measures in a balanced and measured way", "must deliver 300k new homes per year", "Brexit date not set in stone".
CAD: crude oil will continue to drive CAD flows until the Retail Sales print.
AsiaPac: In Australia, the RBA will publish the minutes from its last meeting.
Going into the week I remain bearish on European indices, Aud & Nzd. I am turning bullish on Gold and Jpy.
domenica 12 novembre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 13.11.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It should be a quiet start to the week, perhaps with the exception of Crude Oil. The shakeup in Saudi Arabia and the potential escalation with Iran might grab some attention. Conflicts usually intensify when there are economic downturns and with oil prices having fallen below USD 50/bbl for over two years, revenues and trade in the region have decliend significantly and have exposed the lack of proper fiscal management in the region. Keep an eye on this going forward. Interesting week on the data front with influential releases from the US, UK, Australia & Canada, but also with central bank speak.
USD: this week will once again be about tax reform and any details thereof; but also Fedspeak (including the influential CB panel on Tuesday), and inflation, retail sales and industrial production for October. Minor releases are NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
GBP: inflation, retail sales, unemployment and wages will be under close scrutiny for guidance on Bank of England policy. Cable has been in a range for the past month and a half so logically traders are waiting to see what will break the range. Also watch out for Carney's speeches (Tue, Thurs).
EUR: Draghi's speeches on Tuesday and Friday will probably be the highlights of the week. Regarding data, the second GDP estimate and inflation data for October will be released.
CAD: the Loonie will most likely take it's cue from Crude Oil this week, at least until Canadian Inflation data hits.
AsiaPac: In Japan, markets will focus on Kuroda's speeches (Mon, Tue). Meanwhile in China, important data to be released include retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investments. In Australia, key data to watch for will be NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, employment data and wage price index.
After a dull week, with rangebound moves, the best play in FX is to wait until something inspires some direction. Elsewhere, the clearest thing seems to be Dax & Eurostoxx short bias.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It should be a quiet start to the week, perhaps with the exception of Crude Oil. The shakeup in Saudi Arabia and the potential escalation with Iran might grab some attention. Conflicts usually intensify when there are economic downturns and with oil prices having fallen below USD 50/bbl for over two years, revenues and trade in the region have decliend significantly and have exposed the lack of proper fiscal management in the region. Keep an eye on this going forward. Interesting week on the data front with influential releases from the US, UK, Australia & Canada, but also with central bank speak.
USD: this week will once again be about tax reform and any details thereof; but also Fedspeak (including the influential CB panel on Tuesday), and inflation, retail sales and industrial production for October. Minor releases are NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
GBP: inflation, retail sales, unemployment and wages will be under close scrutiny for guidance on Bank of England policy. Cable has been in a range for the past month and a half so logically traders are waiting to see what will break the range. Also watch out for Carney's speeches (Tue, Thurs).
EUR: Draghi's speeches on Tuesday and Friday will probably be the highlights of the week. Regarding data, the second GDP estimate and inflation data for October will be released.
CAD: the Loonie will most likely take it's cue from Crude Oil this week, at least until Canadian Inflation data hits.
AsiaPac: In Japan, markets will focus on Kuroda's speeches (Mon, Tue). Meanwhile in China, important data to be released include retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investments. In Australia, key data to watch for will be NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, employment data and wage price index.
After a dull week, with rangebound moves, the best play in FX is to wait until something inspires some direction. Elsewhere, the clearest thing seems to be Dax & Eurostoxx short bias.
domenica 5 novembre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 6.11.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It should be a quiet start when Asia opens early Monday and the only significant piece of news that came across my desk is about the purge against Saudi Arabia's political and business elite. This will likely impact Crude Oil. NFP didn’t alter Fed expectations and as such, USD sentiment remains bullish. RBA & RBNZ meetings will be the highlights of the week.
USD: boring week for data. On the political front, Trump's tax plan is -for now - likely to attract capital into US corporations but also likely to pressure the middle class even more. Tax cuts on corporations and elimination of deductibles for households means, to be blunt, buy US stocks.
EUR: mostly minor releases with EU PPI and retail sales while Germany will release industrial production, factory orders and trade data. Elections IN Sicily will be a tell-tail regarding next year's vote in Italy: will we see another country go anti-establishment and attempt to leave the EU?
UK: Industral production is the only thing on the calendar.
AsiaPac: busy week for China with trade balance, consumer and producer prices. In Australia, the RBA meets; across the ditch, the RBNZ meets.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities & Crude Oil and bearish on Aussie, Euro and Gbp mainly vs. USD.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It should be a quiet start when Asia opens early Monday and the only significant piece of news that came across my desk is about the purge against Saudi Arabia's political and business elite. This will likely impact Crude Oil. NFP didn’t alter Fed expectations and as such, USD sentiment remains bullish. RBA & RBNZ meetings will be the highlights of the week.
USD: boring week for data. On the political front, Trump's tax plan is -for now - likely to attract capital into US corporations but also likely to pressure the middle class even more. Tax cuts on corporations and elimination of deductibles for households means, to be blunt, buy US stocks.
EUR: mostly minor releases with EU PPI and retail sales while Germany will release industrial production, factory orders and trade data. Elections IN Sicily will be a tell-tail regarding next year's vote in Italy: will we see another country go anti-establishment and attempt to leave the EU?
UK: Industral production is the only thing on the calendar.
AsiaPac: busy week for China with trade balance, consumer and producer prices. In Australia, the RBA meets; across the ditch, the RBNZ meets.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities & Crude Oil and bearish on Aussie, Euro and Gbp mainly vs. USD.
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