Weekly Game Plan 29 Apr 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

There wasn’t any news out over the weekend so it should be another quiet start to the week. Remember that Japan is away for the Golden Week, and many countries will also be away on May 1st.  That said, it will be a busy week with the FOMC & BOE meetings, NonFarm Payrolls and other EU data due. We closed Friday with relatively strong equity markets and a mixed reaction from the USD Q1 GDP.

Themes for the Week:

• FOMC: the market is not expecting any change in policy or statement. Patience and the dovish/accommodative tone are the consensus, but given recent data alongside strong equities and steady to easing financial conditions, we might get a somewhat more upbeat tone.
• The Bank of England also meets this week, but it is expected to be a non-event.
• EU earnings: quarterly earnings were supposed to be the worst in Europe in almost three years, but with a third of results in, things are looking a little rosier. Financials have delivered the biggest surprises, according to analysis by Barclays.
• US/China trade talks resume.
• USD: strength is seen in the USD after decent data recently, and EM currencies like ARS, TRY, BRL are once again suffering. The stronger the USD gets, the more pressure will be exherted on EM debt and trade.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• Spanish Election Effects
• BOE's Carney speaks + BOE Decision
• CNH Manuf. PMI & Caixin PMI
• GER CPI
• EUR Flash GDP & CPI
• CAD GDP
• BOC's Poloz Speech
• NZD Unemployment Change
• FOMC Decision
• NFP

On the Radar:

Evidently I remain biased long on the Dax and the SPX. I also favour further USD and JPY strength vs. EUR, GBP and CAD primarily.

Weekly Game Plan 15 Apr 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no news over the weekend, markets will likely pick up from where they left off last week. The main theme on Friday was easing global growth fears after better China data and better earnings from JP Morgan. Remember that it is also a holiday-shortened week with most traders away on Good Friday and Easter Monday.

Themes for the Week:

Risk-On: markets are welcoming positive signs that the China economy has bottomed and is growing again. China activity is the single biggest factor in the pricing of commodities and  Emerging Market sentiment. China data will be watched closely this week. Beyond China, the other major factor to watch is US earnings. Expectations are low, and JPM already beat expectations, with a decent risk-rally ensuing.

Brexit fatigue: the ongoing Brexit/UK political fiasco will be of more interest to political scientists than the market. Most contacts have simply lost interest. We have a bundle of UK data this week which may be more influential now that Brexit is delayed.
Data in the Week Ahead:

• BOC Business Outlook Survey
• RBA Minutes
• UK Employment
• NZD CPI
• CHN GDP
• UK CPI
• CAD CPI
• OPEC MEETING
• AU Employment
• UK Retail Sales
• US Retail Sales

On the Radar:

The only things on my radar going into the week are Equities (Long) and AudJpy/NzdJpy (long). They are the clearest opportunities for now, given current sentiment.

Weekly Game Plan 8 Apr 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Over the weekend, PM May has moved further away from the original promise to “deliver what the population has requested” and has now said there is a “greater risk of no Brexit the longer it takes to find compromise”. Needless to say that both May and Corbyn are encountering more and more internal resistance and there is no guarantee that the EU will play ball. The EU Council will hold an emergency meeting on Brexit this week.

On a more positive note, China’s CCTV reported “new progress” made between US and China in the round of trade talks that wrapped up on Friday in Washington. Risk assets may continue to be supported into the week on this.

Themes for the Week:

• Brexit uncertainty: the saga continues with much confusion. Headlines will be influential, and the EU Council will hold an emergency meeting on Brexit this week. (Wednesday).
• Risk-on: assets rallied through the week in part due to US-China trade deal optimism, but no firm date has been set for the much-anticipated Trump-Xi Summit. The US Jobs numbers were also decent and could add to the positive tone.
• Fed Minutes: the recent statement veered on the dovish side, so the market will be looking for more details on Fed balance sheet reduction plans, inflation projections and future rate path. Fedspeak and US data will also be worked into the picture.
• ECB time: the ECB took markets by surprize last time, with the dovish stance. This week no change is expected in either rates, statement or TLTRO details. Could be a non-event unless the statement turns even more sour.
• US earnings:  focus will be on reports from major US banks including Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. The bar has been set quite low this time.

Data in the week ahead:

• UK GDP
• ECB Rates Decision
• US CPI
• FOMC Minutes
• OPEC Meeting

On the Radar:

Going into the week I remain bullish on equities and Crude Oil in line with the risk-on sentiment. I’m also bullish USD on the back of NFP, and will look to NZDUSD and EURUSD shorts, as well as USDJPY longs. As a cross, NZDCAD shorts still look interesting.