EU Open Report - 19.06.2015

Good Morning & TGI-F! Attitudes on Greece seem to be shifting: Greece is being seen as an ongoing threat for EUR weakness. The perception among many is that EUR could rise after first seeing a knee-jerk dip (on a default and/or Grexit); some parties instead still speculate that any kind of agreement between Greece and its creditors would be positive (since we've constantly been in a stalemate). So, focus now shifts to the leaders meeting on Monday, as well as to headlines on the Greek banking system. The main expectation for proceedings continues to be "nothing done", so any development (positive or negative) will be market moving.

As expected, the Boj left everything unchanged. Today we have the BOJ presser and UsdJpy continues to trade soft. This may limit the need for the BoJ to further jawbone the exchange rate down. The BoJ looks unlikely to encourage additional JPY weakening and fundamentals increasingly argue for a stronger JPY.

1. Who Said What

- BoJ stands pat,  keeps upbeat view of economy, policy meetings to be cut to 8 from current 14 next year, economic outlook report to be issued 4 times annually instead of current 2, minutes of meeting to be released earlier, to include more details of Policy Board members thinking.

- ECB not sure if Greeks will be able to open on Monday – Reuters.

- NZD FinMin English – Low 0.60s long-run average for NzdUsd, plenty of room to lower rates – Bloomberg.

2. Asian Equity & FX Roundup

Asian stocks traded mostly high after a positive Wall Street close, with ASX up 1.3%, Nikkei up 0.74% but the Shanghai composite has entered a technical correction as it has posted the worst week since 2009, down 2.1% today as well.

Not too much movement in the Jpys despite the BoJ decision. Euro complex also soggy. Gbp dormand overnight but remains the best looking FX pair to buy. Nzd remains the best looking FX pair to sell. Aud a little choppy. Usd generally weaker.

3. Calendar (CET time)

Above and beyond the event risk, remember that it's also quadruple witching today, so thigns could be a little more volatile than usual.

Good Luck & have a top weekend!