Crude continues to dictate direction, despite a dovish FOMC. If equities are holding up and "all seems well" with the world, it's only because Crude is knocking on weekly highs as opposed to weekly lows. This despite a downgraded current assessment of the US economy along with upgraded concerns on international & financial developments.
In other news, RBNZ delivered an equally dovish tone by saying "Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year". However the market was expecting a dovish slant, so we'll need further deterioration in China & in dairy prices to really pressure kiwi.
Looking forward: tomorrow we'll see the BoJ and the market is pricing in something of a 30% chance of further easing in tomorrow's announcement (in the form of JGB and ETF purchases, not outright rate cuts). How to read this? Any change in current policy will be viewed as a surprize and warrants Jpy weakness. EurJpy & CadJpy might be the best choices (long of course) if that situation materializes.
Today we'll get UK Q4 GDP and Gbp is still one of the weaker currencies out there. The market is expecting bad news, so it might take some effort to push lower, even though that's still the general slant.
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