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Here is this week's Game Plan:
Trade war concerns are back on the table now that FOMC and ECB are out of the way. Most participants still believe the negative news on the trade front presents buying opportunities - they expect a last minute withdrawl on behalf of Trump which should ease the tensions. China surprisingly included US energy exports in their retaliatory tariffs, which could have an impact on the US shale energy sector. Trump is on a slippery slope here, and if a trade war does escalate, expect significant “risk-off” moves.
Beyond trade wars, the Bank of England meets Thursday, but is expected to remain on hold. Draghi will speak in Sintra, Portugal, but shouldn't disclose anything new after Thursday's dovish taper. OPEC and other large producers start a two-day meeting on Friday where they are expected to agree to an increase in production.
Regarding regular macro data, this week only sees NZD GDP and Cad Retail Sales & CPI.
Going into the week, Aud & Cad are weak vs. USD, Jpy, Gbp. This is driven by trade war fears and is the reason why Eur isn't as popular a short. The US tech sector (Nasdaq) remains resilient despite everything and is biased long. Crude Oil is biased short.
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