Weekly Game Plan 4 Nov 19

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Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start to the week with Tokyo on holiday and no market moving news out over the weekend. Last week ended with a risk-on tone after the  "Goldilocks" NFP report...which overshadowed the worse  ISM manufacturing data. Equities closed at the highs, US yields rose but FX was rather muted and the USD eased. The Loonie was the worst performer after a dovish BOC opened the door to a rate cut. In contrast, the Aussie was the best performer after rate cut expectations were diminished.

Themes for the Week:

• US/China Trade War: the US-China trade talks appear to be going well enough to maintain optimism a phase one deal will be agreed to. Just watch out for any tape bombs...
• RBA: the market is giving virtually no chance of another cut so the focus will be on the statement.
• BOE: markets are expecting another non-event as we all await the December election turnout.

Data in the week ahead:

• AU Retail Sales
• RBA Decision
• NZ Employment Q/Q
• BOE Decision
• CAD Employment
• China Trade Balance

On the Radar

Going into this week (a quiet from from a news perspective) I continue to favour longs on Nasdaq, SP500, Dax even...and Crude if we break last week's highs. In FX, I like AUD & NZD longs against USD and Cad. We seem to have broad USD weakness so perhaps Eur longs and Gbp longs might be viable as well.