You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help.
Here is this week's Game Plan
Latest batch of economic data, including ISMs and NFP, suggested that US economy is in healthy shape. The US Dollar was the leader last week, and will likely continue to be in the spotlight. The main driver this week will continue to be the coronavirus. The spread of the virus and the measures taken to contain it will likely be closely monitored by markets, as the short-term impact on global growth might be significant.
Themes for the Week:
The coronavirus coming in & out of focus is keeping things volatile in risk-assets, but given the favourable macro environment (and the coming stimulus from PBOC), I continue to be bullish on Dow, ASX, China equities and will look at exaggerated fear from the coronavirus as opportunities to buy dips.
The same reasoning goes for copper & crude, which are currently taking on water and are bearish in the short-term, but will likely rebound when concerns fade.
In FX, I like USD strength against almost anything.
Themes for the Week:
- Coronavirus: Recent days have seen an unremitting flow of dire headlines as supply chains from New Zealand to the United States felt the impact of a paralysed China. Toyota and Honda are suspending production in China, Hyundai has halted work in South Korea, airlines are grounding flights and reducing staff, and central banks are easing policy.
- Powell Testimony: the text has already been released. Given Powell and his Fed crew have been consistent in recent messaging that there is no hurry to resume rate cuts (or hikes) and that they see the economy in "a good place" one topic that might generate fireworks in his appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday is "repo". Other Fed speakers will include San Fran’s Daly and Philly’s Harker (Monday), Daly (again) with St. Louis President Bullard and Minneapolis President Kashkari (Tuesday), Harker again on Thursday, and then Cleveland President Mester on Friday.
- RBNZ, Riksbank decisions, both expected to remain on hold.
- CNY CPI
- UK GDP Q/Q
- RBNZ Decision
- Powell Testimony
- US CPI
- US Retail Sales
The coronavirus coming in & out of focus is keeping things volatile in risk-assets, but given the favourable macro environment (and the coming stimulus from PBOC), I continue to be bullish on Dow, ASX, China equities and will look at exaggerated fear from the coronavirus as opportunities to buy dips.
The same reasoning goes for copper & crude, which are currently taking on water and are bearish in the short-term, but will likely rebound when concerns fade.
In FX, I like USD strength against almost anything.
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento