You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Last week ended with a rally in the US Dollar driven by higher yields as some large position adjustments made by funds ahead of month-end and a growing consensus that inflation pressures in the US will eventually force yields higher. This week should start off with a tad of optimism after North Korea said on Saturday it would immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, scrap its nuclear test site and instead pursue economic growth and peace, ahead of planned summits with South Korea and the United States.
However, a more cautious mood may prevail after the initial boost, since declining global PMIs are starting to show up in some analyst reports. Moreover, there are a number of risks that market participants have at the top of mind: soggy data out of Europe, trade protectionism, China uncertainty, a volatile/unpredictable White House and the FED which might hike into an economic downturn.
Key earnings reports from US tech giants including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft should also influence the markets. THus far, despite a great earnings season, the Dow hasn't done much at all, which isn't a good sign and adds to the cautious sentiment that is building.
As far as macro data goes, this week we get the ECB and BOJ meetings, AU CPI, NZ Trade Data, US & UK GDP.
Going into the week I will be looking for further USD strength vs. AUD, NZD and GBP. FTSE looks poised for further gains as does Crude Oil.
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