You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
With no market moving news from the weekend, along with the Japanese Golden Week holiday, markets should remain calm until Europe starts to move things around. We are carrying two themes with us from last week. The first is about US inflationary pressures as US company reports warned of rising prices after posting outstanding quarterly profits. This likely means that Core PCE will be a key event, and will skew expectations for Average Earnings (due on Friday with NFP). The second theme is the dismal UK Q1 GDP which has significantly altered BOE expectations.
It should be a big week as geopolitics, more US corporate earnings, central bank meetings and some key data compete for the roles of key driver of market trends. The RBA meets on Tuesday (no change expected), the FOMC meets on Wednesday (no change expected). US non-farm payrolls for April will be the key event and we finally have a focal point in the average earnings (expected +0.2% M/M and +2.8% Y/Y versus +0.3% and +2.7% in March).
Elsewhere, we get Canadian GDP, UK PMIs, China data.
Going into the week, I remain biased short on GBP, EUR & JPY. USD & CAD appear to be the strong candidates as of Friday’s close. Also, for the 3rd week in a row I remain biased long on FTSE.
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