Weekly Game Plan 9.4.18

 Apologies for the extended silence. Back to our normal programming! You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The weekend press was populated by analysis of trade war ramifications between the US and China. It's not really fresh news so it should be a fairly quiet start in Wellington. We got some hawkish commentary from Fed's Evans on Saturday, but he said nothing different than Powell and the USD hasn't been receiving any love.

This week will be all about NAFTA and US/China tensions. If Trump proceeds with tariffs on additional US 100 BLN worth of Chinese imports to the US, the Chinese response will be rapid and equally high. Just remember that in a trade war, it will be the exporting countries that suffer and Canada & the EU are much more dependant on exports than China or the US. So in a trade war, the actual losers are not US or China.

Beyond the geopolitical issues, US earnings season for Q1 begins next week and expectations are sky-high due to the impact of the US corporate tax cuts...so naturally the risk is for a disappointment which could put more pressure on indices.

Data wise we only have US CPI and China data this week.

Going into the week I like GBP strength vs. AUD & EUR; I also like Aud weakness vs. Cad strength. US equities are bearish as is Crude Oil.  However, things might rapidly change depending on this week's drivers so stay nimble.