Weekly Game Plan - 12.12.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 5.12.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 28.11.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 21.11.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan 14.11.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 7.11.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 31.10.16

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Where to Find my Weekly Analysis

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces  like this piece which was also featured in Van Tharp's Newsletter:

Revisiting Tom Basso: How Important Is Your Entry?

Here is this week's Weekly Game Plan:

Weekly Game Plan - 25.9.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

Extremely busy week ahead. To note, there is an informal meeting of OPEC ministers and other oil-exporting countries on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (Mon to Wed). Media reports suggest that the positions of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia are drawing closer to the prospect of accommodation.

USD: focus on the first of 3 presidential debates on Monday 26th at 9 PM EST between Clinton and Trump. The more Trump gains consensus, the weaker the USD should go. Moreover, the closer the race is, the more uncertain it becomes and that spills into USD weakness. Then we have 10 (!) FED official jawboning and pay particular attention to Evans, Harker, Kaplan and Kashkari. Durable goods (Wed) are expected much lower than previous and Personal Spending is also not expected higher. Unclear how much weight the 3rd reading of GDP will have - not much if you ask me.

EUR: Draghi will be on the air frequently during the week and we should watch for any hints at policy easing (or lack thereof). Ger IFO (Mon), Ger CPI (Thur) and EU CPI (Fri) will be watched and further disappointment in inflation is expected.

CAD: Finished last week in bad shape. This week Poloz will be speaking (Monday night) and we will see the first swing at Q3 GDP on Friday.

JPN & CHN: PMI figures could stumble a little (Fri). But interest will also be on the BoJ minutes (Fri).

Going into the week I will be looking for more weakness in Gbp, Nzd & Cad vs. Jpy strength and Eur Resilience. This picture may need re-assessing depending on US output.

Weekly Game Plan - 18.9.16

Weekly Game Plan - 11.9.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

- US policymakers are quite positive in their assessment of the economy and that is how we closed on Friday. 

- This week remember that on Friday EU leaders meet without the UK.

- Watch out for the OPEC Oil Market Report (Mon), and the IEA Report (Tue).

GBP: BoE is npt expected to change anything this week, but it will be an intense week for the Pound. The labour marketdata (Wed) is expected robust. We also have inflation (Tue) expected higher, although retail sales (Thu) may disappoint based on BRC data. 

USD:  Fedspeak will continue this week  but of more interest is a plethora of data:  retail sales (Thu) and CPI inflation (Fri). The former in particular will be watched for signs that consumer spending will continue to drive growth. 

CNY: industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment (all Tue) will give further indications of whether the slowdown in China’s economy is bottoming out.

AUD: also in focus. Employment data is on tap, along with speeches from a number of Australian policymakers. The market expects a relatively robust gain of 15K new jobs on top of the 27K new jobs generated in July,  but according to the latest PMI readings, employment conditions are actually worse. Earlier in the week we get the regular surveys from NAB on Tuesday and WestPac on Wednesday, while RBA speakers scheduled are Kent on Tuesday, Debelle and Richards on Wednesday.

My initial watchlist for the week is made up of Nasdaq (short), GbpAud (long) and EurAud (Long).

Weekly Game Plan - 4.9.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities

Reminder: Monday is a holiday for the US but given market moving events, the European session should be active.

USD: Monday is a public holiday in the US. Fed speakers Williams (Wed) and Rosengren (Fri) will feature in a relatively quiet week. The ISM non-manufacturing index for August is due on Tuesday.

GBP: services PMI survey (Mon) will potentially be the most influential data point this week. We also have UK industrial production (Wed) and construction output (Fri). More up-to-date evidence for August will come from the British Retail Consortium (Tue). On Wednesday, the Bank of England's Mark Carney, Jon Cunliffe, Kristin Forbes and Ian McCafferty are due to participate in a hearing of the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

EUR: The ECB Meeting (Thur) will attract the most attention but before that, the tone will be set by Services Pmi (Mon), GER Factory Orders (Tue), GER Ind. Prod. (Wed).Recent data has been poor and the market is expecting a dovish bias.

CAD: busy week for the Loonie. We have the BoC decision & Ivey PMI (Wed) along with  unemployment (Fri). Cad has been taking its cue from oil but this week Canadian fundamentals will play a bigger role and unfortunately seem weaker since the last BoC meeting so chances are the central bank will be dovish and could even talk about the need for more easing. 

CNY: China inflation (Fri) is expected to stay subdued around 1.8% y/y, still a long way from the target of 3%. Producer price inflation (PPI) is likely to continue higher as deflation eases further on the back of the increase in commodity prices. Chinese trade data (Thur) are less influential. Caixing PMI (Mon) will also be watched.

AUD: China data will influence AUD but we also have domestic drivers. Job Advertisements (Mon) will take the back seat to teh RBA meeting (Tue) where no change is expected.

Here are the best looking charts going into the week:

Dax Daily

Copper Daily

Weekly Game Plan - 28.8.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities

Reminder: Monday the 29th is a UK bank holiday - expect little to no movement in FX. Also, some contacts are reporting that many players were back for Yellen and will be in the office this week planning for positions for Sept. Based on recent Jackson Hole comments, it seems that unless this week's NFP is dismal, there's scope for a 0.25% hike in September. 

Kuroda is instead taking the BoJ on the opposite path, and may aid UsdJpy rise http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-27/kuroda-says-boj-won-t-hesitate-to-act-decisively-again-if-needed

USD: busy week ahead, including NFP (Fri), consumer spending (Mon), construction (Thu) and international trade (Fri), along with ISM manuf (Thu). The week also brings several public appearances by FOMC members: Rosengren (Wed), Lacker (Fri). Any comments about monetary policy will be followed closely up to the FOMC meeting in mid-September.

GBP: The coming week will see the Lloyds Business Barometer and GfK consumer confidence (both Wed), the manufacturing PMI (Thu) and construction PMI (Fri). Market participants will be observing just how much Brexit influenced the economy - and so far data has held up well.

EUR:  ‘Flash’ CPI data for August (Wed) will provide an update on the extent to which inflation in the Eurozone. Before that (Tue) we have German CPI.

Comm-Dolls: AUD has a busy calendar: QII private capex numbers (Thur), monthly building approvals (Tue), retail sales (Thur) and RBA private sector credit (Wed) will afford market watchers snapshots of the economic growth pulse early in QIII. For NZD we have ANZ Business Outlook & Credit Growth (Wed) as well as Terms of Trade (Thur).

CHN: Finally both official and unofficial August PMI data in China (Thu) will be watched closely for signs that economic growth is stabilising. As almost all of the data in July surprised on the downside, markets will be looking for more reassurance from the latest set of indicators.

I don't expect the market to be back into full gear until next week, and it's effectively slim pickings still. So Aud weakness looks like one of the more evident things out there, along with USD strength. Watchlist has AudUsd/GbpAud and UsdJpy as initial candidates. 

AudUsd Daily Chart

UsdJpy Daily Chart

Weekly Game Plan 21.8.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

USD: Jackson Hole will be the main event this week. The 3-day meeting starts on Thursday, but FED's Yellen will be the main focus on Friday. The market is discounting a 22% probability of a hike in September. If Yellen is going to raise rates, she will definitely drop hints on Friday although recent data basically rules out a September (and even November) hike.

EUR: basically the only other data of interest beyond Jackson Hole. We have Flash PMIs (Tue), Ger IFO (Thur) which are expected positive.

Going into the week, it looks like Gbp and Usd weakness along with Euro and Jpy strength are the most evident plays out there. Crude is evidently strong (but expect a pullback) and equities are consolidating at/near highs.

Weekly Game Plan - 14.8.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

Recall that the summer doldrums are in full fledge. I still do not expect much volatility this week.

GBP: we will see the first ‘hard’ post-Brexit readings. Retail sales (Thu), Public finance data (Fri), inflation data (Tue), Employment data (Wed) which might be the least interesting data print as it's the less timely.

USD: FOMC’s Minutes (Wed) might be less interesting as they preceed the conflicting signals given by the soft Q2 GDP, and the strength in employment. Fedspeak might be more infulential, with Dudley, Lockhart, Bullard and Williams. US CPI (Tue) are likely to see some headline drag from lower oil.

EUR: Beyond German ZEW there's nothing worth noting.

JPY: Q2 GDP (Mon) are backward looking and can't shed any light on prospects for further BoJ easing in September.

Comm-Dolls: for the AUD we have RBA August Board minutes (Tue),Wages Price Index (Wed) and, importantly, the August employment data (Thur). What might also be interesting is to read Governor Stevens Speech http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-gov-2016-08-10.html.  CAD has Retail Sales and CPI (Fri).

Going into the week, Crude remains strong and might keep equity markets buoyant and also support Cad. Gbp weakness remains pronounced and GbpCad/GbpJpy might provide further downside. UsdCad is also under scrutiny as we have broken 1.3000. 

Weekly Game Plan - 7.8.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

The markets are now in holiday-mode so volatility is expected to fall and opportunities will become less abundant. 

USD: The only really significant release in the coming week will be July retail sales (Fri) and coupled with the holidays, I don't expect much action at all.

GBP: we have some data out, but the most important release is the NIESR GDP estimate for July (Tue) which usually is a good indicator for actual GDP growth and the expectations are for a lower print. Ind. prod. (Tue) and construction output (Fri) are expected robust, but they are pre-Brexit indicators.  

CHN: The coming week will see a Chinese data-dump: international trade (Mon), inflation (Tue) and industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment (Fri). The consensus expectation is that the economy may be finding a bottom. This may provide opportunities on the indices and Jpy crosses.

EUR: Very thin calendar. Nothing influential.

Comm-Dolls: RBNZ meeting will be the highlight of the week. There is risk of a hawkish cut (similar to the RBA in the past week) as the market has not decided on a 0.5% cut or simply a 0.25% cut. But a hawkish cut is to be expected given the underlying economic strength, persistent concerns on housing and recent buoyancy in milk prices. In Australia, confidence and lending data are among the highlights but Governor Stevens will also be making an address to the Anika Foundation.

Going into the week, indices remain bullish and Crude is supportive. I also continue to favour Gbp shorts vs. Nzd and Aud and will continue to monitor Nzd into - and out of - the RBNZ announcement as it should be the highlight of the week.

Weekly Game Plan - 31.7.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

Going into the week, Chinese PMIs (late Sunday, early Monday) will likely dictate risk appetite in early trade.

USD: it's NFP week and the market is expecting a more conservative 175K (Fri). Alongside that, US ISM (Mon, Wed) will be key for US rate hike expectations after the worse GDP print and are alsoe expected slightly worse than previous. It will take some evident positive surprizes to shake off the current negative vibes on the USD.

GBP: big week with the BoE's much expected decision (Thur).  The market is looking for a cut of 0.25% to 0.25% and increase the QE target by £50bn by renewing its programme of Gilt purchases over a four-month period. Expect a split vote within the MPC. 7-2 or 8-1 are likely. Ahead of the vote, we have UK PMIs (Mon, Tue, Wed) which are expected to remain stable with only Construction Pmi expected lower.

EUR: "Final" PMIs this week will likely be non-influential as we've already seen the "flash" estimates. Euro likely to be a passenger this week.

JPY: More volatility might be seen after last week's BoJ disappointment, as we should see the actual size of the stimulUs package this week. Beyond that, watch risk appetite.

Comm-Dolls: the RBA policy announcement (Tue) and Statement on Monetary Policy (Fri) are the main focus. The market expects the RBA to cut 0.25% but it's language may not be all that dovish given that data has not been terrible recently.  For Canada, Merchandise trade and Employment (Fri) will be the focus. A modest improvement in employment & trade are expected.

Going into the week, I will be looking for further USD and GBP weakness vs JPY and NZD, and also more downside in Crude and potentially some upside in bullion as the USD falls.

Weekly Game Plan - 24.7.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

The G20 ended with a sour tone. Brexit has added more than a touch of uncertainty and the IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts. Overall not a positive start to the trading week.

USD: All eyes will be on the FOMC (Wed) although no move and a cautious tone are expected. The recent data has been better however, and this week's Q2 GDP (Fri) is expected to confirm solid growth. Durable Goods (Wed) are expected soft, yet slightly better than previous.

EUR: Busy week ahead. IFO (Mon) will most likely set the tone for expectations on Q2 GDP (Fri) as both are expected lower. CPI (Fri) is expected stable along with Unemployment (Fri). German Employment (Thur) is expected to weaken slightly and CPI is expected robust.

GBP: Q2 GDP (Wed) is likely to be strong as Brexit hit only the end of the business quarter. So there might be some room for volatility,  but again we're looking at old data. GFK consumer confidence (Fri) will likely show more information on consumer sentiment post-Brexit.

JPY: Another likely protagonist this week as the BoJ is expected to ease policy (Fri) but there will be a data dump at the same time which will have to be taken into consideration. To be honest, a BoJ underwhelm might be in the cards.

Comm-Dolls: Australia will issue CPI (Wed) which is expected stronger than previous, but not strong enough to take an August rate cut off the table.  Canada will issue GDP (Fri) expected lower. New Zealand has June trade data on Monday, building permits on Thursday and NBNZ business confidence on Friday but none of these data points are likely to generate much interest.

Going into the week, US indices are still quite bullish, Crude is weak. In FX, USD still shines and the weakest ccys out there are still Euro, Gbp and Cad. Jpy might surprize on Friday - be nimble.

Weekly Game Plan 17.7.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Earnings will be a major highlight of the coming week. In fact it’s the first of three heavy weeks during the peak of the Q2 earnings season that brings out 96 reports, followed by 194 the week after and 114 the week after that before the momentum then wanes.

Also, don't forget the RBNZ ‘special’ statement where it most likely will not simply reiterate the status quo (or make hawkish adjustments), so this should shade expectations to the downside approaching the event.

USD: quiet week ahead.

GBP: first thing, watch BoE's hawkish Weale (Mon) to see if he contraddicts anything Haldane said on Friday. CPI (Tue) is expected to rise on the recent decline in GBP. Retail  sales (Thur) encompasses post-referendum data and is expected lower. Also, there will be a one-off UK Markit ‘flash’ PMI survey (Fri) which may confirm a negative impact on confidence in manufacturing and services.

EUR: big week ahead. The focus will be on the ECB (Thur) with no change expected but with all ears on Draghi's assessment of Brexit impact and the Italian Banking sector. Before that we have Ger ZEW (Tue), EU Consumer Confidence (Wed) and then EU flash PMI (Fri) with confidence levels expected to decline.

Comm-Dolls:  The July RBA Board meeting minutes are due but nothing new is expected.  The New Zealand CPI is expected to show feeble NZ price pressures, rising by 0.5% to be up a negligible annual 0.5%. Thre will also be a GDT Auction (Tue) where a modest bounce is expected. For CAD, we have retail sales & CPI on Friday, both expected weaker but it will take more than that the change the BoC's mind on the "robustness" of the economy. So Crude will probably impact Cad more than data.

Going into the week I'll be looking for Euro, Nzd and Gbp weakness vs. Cad and USD initially. Equities still seem buoyant, as do bullion.

Weekly Game Plan - 10.7.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

The first thing to note is that the Monday post-NFP is usually quite a dull day. So don't be eager to jump in. Equities are buoyant after NFP failed to show any decent wage inflation (lower for longer sentiment). Metals are still bid as a safe haven. Crude still weak.

EUR: There are no major Eurozone economic reports scheduled for release in the coming week leaving the focus on the EU Finance Ministers meeting in Brussels (Mon), Italian bank stocks and risk appetite. Overall, the tone is slightly negative.

GBP: BoE (Thur) expected to be dovish but not cut rates until the Inflation Report in August. The market is pricing in a 0.25% rate cut already, but from what Carney has said, it's more logical to see an August cut. So we should also look at the voting stance and evaluate the unanimity or lack thereof. Carney will appear in Parliament (Tue) as well. As far as data goes, BRC (Tue) and RICS House Price Survey (Thur) might attract some attention as they are now reflecting post-Brexit sentiment. Construction output (Fri) instead is still pre-Brexit data. 

USD: Retail Sales (Fri) expected strong and CPI (Fri) expected positive but weaker than previous. We have a good amount of Fedspeak this week: Fed's George (Mon), Mester-Tarullo-Bullard-Kashkari (Tue), Mester-Kaplan-Harker (Wed), Lockhart & George (Thur),  Kashkari & Bullard (Fri). The market will pay attention to the Fedspeak after the recent employment data, to understand how likely a rate hike is and when it is most likely to happen. Tone seems positive overall.

Comm-Dolls:  Aussie & Kiwi remain strong on quest for Yield & Quality. On Monday & Thursday RBA's Ellis will be giving speeches on Financial Stability - which might be influential post-Brexit; on Thursday we have Australia unemployment data expected positive but not as good as last month's as the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.8% from 5.7%. For Cad, BoC meets on Wednesday and will be of interest after the recent poor jobs report, WildFires in Alberta and the market is expecting dovish remarks from Poloz but no rate cut. Nzd has a light calendar but we will hear from RBNZ's McDermott on Wednesday.

CHN: Sunday we will see CPI and PPI which will have to be incorporated into Monday's sentiment. Wednesday we see the Trade Balance; Friday we see Industrial Production, Retail Sales, GDP and Fixed Asset Investments. All the Chinese data will likely influence risk appetite and also Aud and Nzd.

Going into the week, it could be a potentially busy week with US indices clearly bullish, Crude weak, Bullion bid. Aud, Nzd & Jpy strength can be matched with Gbp, Eur and Cad weakness. So risk will likely be well diversified this week.

Weekly Game Plan - 3.7.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities

Reminder: Wall Street closed Monday for Independence Day. 

Global equities strong amongst "lower for longer" sentiment. Precious metals higher amongst risk aversion & central bank action. Crude helped by marginally weaker USD.

US: It's NFP week, and the market is expecting a better print, in the 150K range. Average Earnings are also expected higher by 0.2% driving annual growth rate to 2,7% even though unemployment might rise a tad. Before NFP we have a speech by Fed's Dudley (Tue), who'se comments will be important and should be representative of the top ranking members of the Fed. FOMC Minutes (Tue) will be less influential as they are pre-Brexit. Base case is that rate hikes are off the table for 2016. ISM Non-Manuf. (Wed) expected firm. Overall, the market is already discounting no hikes this year and until we start seeing data from the post-Brexit vote, not much should change.

EUR: More than the Services PMI (Wed) what might be interesting is the Sentix Confidence index (Mon) which will take into account post-Brexit vote sentiment. The market is expecting quite the deterioration (5 vs 9.9 previous). All other data this week (retail sales on Tue, Factory Orders Wed and Ind. Prod. on Thurs) are from before the vote so less influential. 

GBP: Services PMI (Tue) would usually be influential but with the vast majority of the survey responses being pre-Brexit, it's unlikely to provide much forward-looking insight. UK data on industrial production (Thu) and external trade (Fri) are even less timely.

Comm-Dolls: election should not influence Aud much but look to verify ruling coalition still in power after Sunday's vote. RBA (Tue) expected to stand pat, acknowledging impressive Q1 GDP but incorporating Brexit risk. On the data front, building approvals (Mon) expected to fall,  retail sales ( Tue) expected to rise as well as trade data. Finally,  RBA's Debelle on Wednesday will attend a Thomson Reuters event to examine the FX Code of Conduct.

NZD traders have a GDT dairy auction to watch on Tuesday.

Cad unemployment is out alongside NFP while the  trade balance (Wed) is set to see the deficit widen sharply due to a hit on energy exports from the Alberta wildfires. 

CNY: data over the past week has remained mixed. This week we have Caixin PMI (Tue) to skew risk appetite even thoguh the focus is likely to remain on trends in the Yuan. 

Jpy: a speech from Kuroda (Thu) might surprize the markets if he (finally) brings fourth hints on stimulus, to weaken the Jpy. 

So going into the week, I will be looking for more Gbp weakness vs. Aud and Nzd mainly; but also AudJpy or NzdJpy longs depending on any surprizes from Kuroda. And eyes on USD after Dudley. US equities still bullish, metals also strong.

Weekly Game Plan - 26.6.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Any data this week will take back seat to risk appetite based on Brexit tone.  The result of the general election in Spain on Sunday and the EU leaders’ summit on Tuesday and Wednesday offer two near-term flashpoints: if the Podemos party does well in Sunday’s election it could be the start of a general wave of "separatist contagion" in the EU. Furthermore, German, French and Italian leaders meet in Berlin on Monday. BoE Governor Carney is due to speak at an ECB forum in Portugal on Monday while Draghi, Yellen & Carney will be attending a panel in Portugal on Wednesday.

UK: The only thing I have to say about UK data this week (and potentially in the coming weeks) is that negative data will exacerbate the downwards bias for Gbp since Brexit is currently seen upon as negative.

EU: we have data this week but the impact is complicated by the results of the referendum in the UK. German and Eurozone sentiment surveys (Wed) are expected to remain more or less stable along with the PMIs on Friday. Flash Ger June inflation is expected higher and EU HICP is also due higher. German labour market data is on Thursday, expected to see a further 5k fall in unemployment with the rate stable at 6.1%. Thursday we will also see the ECB June meeting minutes. Eurozone unemployment is on Friday, expected to fall to 10.1% in May from 10.2%. Overall positive expectations on the data front but risk-appetite and potential for "contagion" will likely dominate the agenda.

Jpy: there is an increasing feeling of looming intervention if UsdJpy falls below 100 and EurJpy below 110. If CPI on Friday fails to impress, and more stimulus seems necessary, that might also give more of an excuse to the MoF to proceeed.

Comm-Dolls: no real data out except Cad GDP (Thur) which is backward looking and will not incorporate the effects from Alberta Wildfires. So instead, traders will watch China's PMI data on Friday.

We are likely due for volatile times. I'd expect more downside on Gbp and Euro, matched with strength in Jpy & USD.  Indices will also be volatile and overall look negative going into the week.

Weekly Game Plan - 19.6.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

The latest Brexit polls will need to be factored in upon market open: BMG on Saturday put the Remain camp in a slight advantage but it's still close: http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/remain-campaign-pulls-ahead-of-brexit-in-eu-referendum-poll-1-4158264 while the Observer/Opinium poll has both sides at 44% and a 10% undecided http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/18/eu-referendum-britain-voting-campaign-jo-cox.  As a final note to incorporate into tomorrow's trading, Cameron will be on BBC TV `Question Time' Programme at 18.45 GMT today.

You can look at it however you want: it's going to be a close call. 

Also, with a quiet week on the data front, there is little to deflect attention away from the referendum. As we have seen in the past couple of weeks, the referndum and hence GBP are impacting all markets. So whatever you trade this week will hinge upon GBP's temper. Trade small, don't be a hero, survive to fight another day.

USD: with no meaningful data out, eyes will be on Yellen at the semi-annual testimony to the House (Tue) & the Senate (Wed) where she is expected too confirm the more cautious approach seen last week, and leave options open on data and global events.

EUR: busier week in the EU. German ZEW (Tue) expected higher at 10 from 6.4, current conditions at 55 from 53.1. EU equivalents also expected higher. The flash PMIs from across the Eurozone (Thur) are also expected sturdy. Finally the Ger Ifo (Fri) is expected higher.  So overall, the market is poised positively on the Euro, despite the fact that the Euro will suffer if we get a Brexit. If not, all the more reason to push higher.

JPY: the market is expecting an intervention post-Brexit/Bremain so the BoJ jawboning this week might prove to be influential. Kuroda speaks on Monday, Kiuchi on Thursday and Nakaso on Friday.

GBP: It's all about the referendum. The vote closes at 21.00gmt on Thursday with preliminary estimates expected from 23.00 gmt. The final declaration is expected at around 07.00gmt on Friday. The only data releases are May PSNB and June CBI industrial trends (Tue) and will be quite meaningless until the market's focus returns to fundamentals post-referendum. I personally find it hard to believe a Brexit will happen although the sole fact that the vote is this close means that we'll be living in a different world going forward.

Comm-Dolls: for Aussie, we have RBA's Debelle and Heath (Tue) along with the RBA minutes. We will hear from Ellis and Debelle again on Thursday.  Q1 house price index is expected to increase QoQ.  There is no major data due in New Zealand, while Canada just has April retail sales so focus will mostly be on the usual US oil inventory data. 

Going into this week, since Brexit/Bremain is the only game in town, my focus will be on sentiment towards polls and the vote. Bremain is generally positive so I would favour Crude/YM longs along with Gbp, Nzd or Aud longs vs. Jpy. Brexit is generally negative so I would favour Dax shorts along with Gbp weakness vs. USD.  

But sitting on the sidelines isn't a bad choice either.

Weekly Game Plan - 12.6.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Don't forget to factor in the outcome of Cameron interviewed by BBC's Andrew Marr (09:00 PM GMT tonight). Sentiment will likely be driven by this tomorrow morning.

USD: busy week ahead. FOMC (Wed) is the main focus but no change is most likely. Yellen to hint at a "live" meeting in July. Retail sales (Tue)  probably the most watched and expected positive although much smaller than previous (+0.3% vs. 1.3% prev). Empire State  (Wed) expected higher to -5.0 from -9.0, while PPI is expected unchanged; finally  industrial production is expected lower than previous. Philly Fed (Thur) is expected higher but  CPI (Thur) is expected slightly lower m/m but unchanged y/y. Housing starts and permits (Fri) should show a mixed end to the week. Seeing as how it's FOMC week, the market will want to see positive data and any negative data will most likely generate more impact. 

EUR: no real news. Industrial production and final CPI not influential. There is some ECB jawboning but Draghi will be speaking only on Friday afternoon, when most players are gone for the week. 

JPY: BoJ widely expected to stand pat. However, the presser will no doubt be watched and the language assessed. Industrial production (Tue)  the only data due and previously was at 0.3% m/m.

GBP: busy week ahead, for data and speakers. First for the Bremain/Brexit debate, there are scheduled talks. Wednesday at 18:45 GMT Michael Gove will be on BBC TV `Question Time' Program on EU Vote. On Thursdsay, Mark Carney and George Osborne speak at Mansion House. With Brexit risk, the BoE (Thur) will definitely stand pat. Beyond that, CPI (Tue) expected up 0.3% m/m, pushing the y/y to 0.4%. Employment data (Wed) likely to see the claimant count up by 3k with the claimant count rate down. Average weekly earnings are set to disappoint again, slowing to 1.7%.Retail sales (Thur) expected to drop. On balance, dovish expectations for GBP data this week, which will however be overshadowed by polls and Brexit/Bremain debate.

AUD & NZD: AUD Employment data (Thur) is the main release in Australia, total employment expected to post a strong +26.2k. The unemployment rate is however expected to rise to 5.8%. RBA Assistant Governor Debelle is due to speak on Tuesday. NAB's May business surveys are also on Tuesday and WestPac consumer confidence on Wednesday. For NZD, there is a GDT Dairy Auction (Tue), current account data (Wed), Q1 GDP (Thur) expected lower than previous.

CNH: China is due to publish industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales next week. The market is looking for overall strength in the numbers. 

Going into the week, cautious Gbp shorts look most evident but also the riskiest choice. European & Japanese equities look weak which could add pressure on Jpy crosses. Crude also looks like it is turning bearish and Kiwi still holding up. However FOMC will likely mix up the cards so I would prefer to stay on the crosses until after the event, avoiding direct USD exposure.

Weekly Game Plan - 5.6.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities

BoC's Poloz still cautious on Canadian Economy over the weekend: http://in.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-idINKCN0YQ0P4

USD: Quiet week ahead. Highlight likley Yellen's speech Monday (17.30 GMT), with Rosengren also speaking from Helsinki. No useful data for the US this week.

EUR: Quiet week for the EU as well.  Ger factory orders (Mon) are expected lower, but Industrial Prod. (Tue) is expected higher. EU final GDP (Tue) not likely to surprize, and Ger CPI (Fri) also unlikely to surprize. Overall, dull week expected.

GBP:  Industrial prod. & Manuf. Prod. (Wed) expected marginally higher as well as trade data (Thur). Construction output (Fri) expected higher as well. So on balance, a positive tilt in expectations for Gbp. However, Brexit/Bremain risk is still the main driver so first & foremost watch Prime Minister David Cameron and UKIP leader Nigel Farage answer questions from the audience on an ITV EU referendum programme (Tue). On Thursday, ITV stages an EU referendum debate between leading politicians from both ‘remain’ and ‘leave’.

Comm-Dolls: major action this week will be on the Comm-Dolls. The RBA (Tue) is the main event in Australia, with no change & a mildly dovish tone expected. Then we have AU lending (Wed) expected higher.  RBNZ (Thur) also expected to leave policy unchanged. As for Canada, employment data (Fri) is the key release with limited impact from Alberta Wildfires expected. Ivey PMI (Tue) the other focus, along with BoC's financial system review & Poloz speech (Thur). 

CHN: comm-dolls and risk appetite will be impacted by CHN Trade data (Wed) and CPI (Thur)

Going into the week I'll be focused on Aud & Nzd strength vs. USD and Gbp weakness. I'll also look to match risk on/off attitude with the recent JPY strength and play UsdJpy or GbpJpy shorts. Finally, I'll be monitoring Cad for potential developments as  data emerges during the week.

Weekly Game Plan - 29.5.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

Reminder: trading will commence again on Tuesday since US and UK markets are on holiday Monday. With illiquid markets, it's usually better to keep powder dry. 

US: focus will of course be on NFP, which is expected to print slightly weak (150-160 K) but not enough to discourage the FED. More importantly, AHE should remain on track with a +0.2% and unemployment should drop to 4.9%. Other data during the week includes: personal income & spending (Tue) expected to rise; Chicago PMI (Tue) is expected to rise; ISM manufacturing index (Wed) is expected  to fall slightly;  construction spending (Wed) should rise; ADP (Thur) is expected strong at 180k; ISM non-manufacturing index (Fri) to fall slightly and  factory orders are also expected lower. So on balance, the outlook is actually negative for the USD.

EU: Busy week ahead. We have EU sentiment indicators (Mon) are expected to rise. German CPI is also due, expected higher at 0.2%. German unemployment (Tue) is expected to show a drop of 2K which would keep the Unemployment rate steady at 6.2%. EU unemployment rate (Tue) is expected to fall to 10.1% but the flash estimate of EU HICP is expected to falll, while core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%y/y. PMI surveys (Wed) are expected to remain firm. But the major event of the week will be the ECB (Thur) although no change is expected. Final service/composite PMIs (Fri) should also show consistent growth. On balance, the outlook is positive for the EUR.

UK:  Manufacturing PMI (Wed) is expected below 50 but slightly higher than previous; Construction PMI (Thur) is expected to fall and Services PMI (Fri) expected to rise slightly but EU referendum uncertainty will still overshadow these releases. On balance, volatile and unclear week on GBP.

Comm-Dolls: Australia has a busy week. Company Operating Profit & Inventories (Mon); Current Account (Tue) and building approvals (Tue) are expected better than previous; AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index (Wed) and GDP are also due and might show some weakness; retail sales (Thur) might show lower growth than the previous print; AIG Performance of Services Index (Fri) is the last data point for the week. On balance, the outlook seems slightly bearish on the AUD.

A key focus (for Cad above all) will be the OPEC meeting in Vienna (Thu). Discussions will center on be on a potential response to recent supply disruptions, including Canadian wildfires and militant attacks in Nigeria. In particular, markets will be watching for any signs of an increase in Saudi Arabian production levels but most likely, OPEC's current strategy will be maintained for now,

CHN:  markets are expecting a marginal fall in the official Chinese manufacturing PMI (Wed) and similarly in the Caixin manufacturing PMI (Wed) which might influence risk appetite negatively.

Going into the week I will be looking for longs on US indices in line with recent risk appetite; in FX however I will be cautious on current trends based on the amount of space covered already this month. In particular on Aussie and Jpys. So whilst AudUsd short/GbpAud longs remain good looking candidates, I will be cautious. Same goes for GbpJpy longs and EurUsd shorts.

 

Weekly Game Plan - 22.5.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Not much to say regarding the G7 meeting thus far. A tad of debate between Lew and Aso on the BoJ's activity but other policymakers have been quite diplomatic.

Articles of interest:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-japan-idUSKCN0YC03O

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-japan-summary-idUSKCN0YC04Y?mod=related&channelName=ousivMolt

US: less exciting week for the greenback. Fedspeak will likely be the main focus with Janet Yellen speaking at Harvard at 10.30ET Friday, and plenty of Fed speakers during the week. Q1 GDP (Fri) is likely to be revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%, but all the attention is already on the expected pick-up in Q2. Sentiment seems to be neutral from an expectations perspective, with a positive backdrop from last week.

EU: Busy week ahead. PMIs (Mon) expected to edge higher. The Ger ZEW survey (Tue) should also show improvements.  The IFO (Wed) is also expected to improve. So there is a definite positive bias on the Euro going into the week. It may be better played on the crosses rather than vs. USD.

GBP: Bremain made Sterling the star of last week; Bremain/Brexit continues to be the main driver. BoE's Carney will testify before the TSC (Tue) and could also steer public opinion.  Then it's the second estimate of Q1 GDP (Thur) expected to be revised lower.

Comm-Dolls: AUD still poised for losses while RBA keeps the market on edge. Main focus this week will be Capex (Thur) which is expected to fall, alongside speeches by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and Assistant Governor Debelle. CAD might continue to suffer from the Alberta wild fire fall out.

Going into the week I'll be looking for Cad and Aud shorts vs Usd, Gbp and - depending on data - Euro.  I'll be watching Gbp polls for clues on Gpb strength/weakness. Risk assets unclear thus far. Better to wait for more information.

Weekly Game Plan - 15.5.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Risk appetite into the week might be negatively influenced by disappointing Chinese data ( http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-activity-idUSKCN0Y506N ) issues over the weekend. Dax would be my preferred vehicle for trading (short) into this theme. 

US: It’s a busy data week in the US. FOMC will be the highlight but a June hike is not in the cards. However, if the FOMC shows the committee less divided than the market expects, we could also get a USD pounce. Fedspeak will also be influential this week. Datawise, we have Empire State (Mon) expected to fall, NAHB homebuilder’s index  (expected to rise) but it's really the CPI (Tue) that will be watched closely and is expected to rise. Tuesday also bring housing starts and permits (+4.7% and +8.7% expected, respectively).  Philly fed (Thur) also expected higher. So on balance, this week, the market is poised for positive US data output.

EU : Light calendar with  account of the April ECB meeting (minutes, basically) out on Thursday.

JPN:  advance Q1 GDP (Wed) is the focus and the market is poised for a bearish outcome. This would add pressure to MoF/BoJ.  

UK: busy week ahead with CPI (Tue) expected slightly lower. More important is Employment data (Wed) expected to see a 5k increase in the claimant count, the ILO unemployment rate unchanged at 5.1%, and average weekly earnings growth slowing  to 1.6% from 1.8% in 3m y/y terms.  Retail sales (Thur) are expected rise. So on balance, a slightly negative expectation for Gbp.

Comm-Dolls: The minutes of the RBA (Tue) are unlikely to tell us anything we did not either hear at the time or read in the Monetary Policy Statement. Q1’s wage cost index  (Wed) is expected to drop slightly, but employment data is expected to show a more modest rise of 4.2k after a  26.1k last time, though the unemployment rate is expected to go back up to 5.8% from 5.7%.

Loonie traders only have Retail Sales (Fri) to look forward to. Crude oil will decide the Cad's fate the rest of the week. 

NZD traders only have Tuesday’s GDT dairy auction to watch.

So going into the week I'll be looking to play the bearish Gbp and bearish Aud themes, vs. USD strength and also Jpy strength (if we get some risk-off form China data).

Weekly Game Plan - 8.5.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Seems to be a quiet week with the exception of the Bank of England so I'll be on the lookout for potential emerging dynamics.  Chinese data will be taken into account early in the week, and Trade Data so far has disappointed. 

US: NFP missed expectations but AHE held up and the USD kept it's strength into the weekend. This is interesting and shows some kind of underlying strength. We have a quiet week ahead for the USD until Retail Sales on Friday (expected to rebound higher). Fed Presidents Evans and Kashkari (Mon) and Mester, Rosengren and George (Thu) will most likely support the idea of a June hike.

GBP: The BoE (Thurs) is the highlight on the calendar this week but the chances of any change are pretty much zero. Even though these very same conditions (weakening data, easing by other CB's) would have turned the tide yeras ago, the Bank will likely argue that referendum uncertainties are in play in the numbers and anything other than 9-0 for the status quo would be a major surprise.  We also have Ind. Prod. (Wed) expected +0.2% m/m for the headline and y/y to -1.0% from -0.5%. Manufacturing is expected +0.3% m/m (after -1.1%) with y/y at -1.9% from -1.8%. April’s RICS house price balance is on Thursday, March construction output on Friday.

EUR:  quiet calendar in EU this week, with a revision to first quarter GDP growth, revisions to April CPI estimates, and March industrial production growth as highlights.

Comm-Dolls: There is not much news on Australia, New Zealand or Canada this week but the Chinese trade data over the weekend will be an early focus especially for Australia, while China’s inflation data is also scheduled on Tuesday.  The BoC’s Wilkins is due to speak on Wednesday, the RBA’s Edey on Thursday.

Going into the week Aud still looks like the weakest of the pack and Jpy is the strongest. So I'll be looking for AudJpy shorts, AudUsd shorts, EurAud Longs. UsdCad Longs, CadJpy shorts. Gbp might pop up later in the week.

Weekly Game Plan - 1.5.2016

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Japan is closed Tue-Wed-Thurs so watch the Jpy on Monday and Friday. NFP is the big focus at the end of the week, though average hourly earnings likely to be the main interest once again. Unless we get incredibly strong headline (> 250K), above trend earnings and high CPI readings, nothing can justify a June Hike and the USD won't get any mercy.

Chinese data was slightly worse than expected this weekend, although still in expansion territory. So that will have to be discounted as the week opens.

US: The week starts with ISM manuf. (Mon) expected 51.5 from 51.8. March construction data is also due. The trade deficit (Wed) is expected down to USD40.3bn from USD47.1bn and a 1.2% fall in Q1 non-farm productivity with a 4% rise in unit labour costs. ISM non-manuf is expected 55.5 from 54.5, and March factory orders are seen +0.6%. NFP (Fri) is the main event of the week and +210k is expected, with unemployment down to 4.9% from 5.0%. However, the main focus is likely to be on average hourly earnings expected +0.3% m/m. 

Fed speakers are back out in force this week so stay tuned.

AUD: RBA (Tue) is expected to keep rates at 2% while maintaining its modest easing bias. The Statement on Monetary Policy is due on Friday. AUD traders will also be looking out for official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs from China on Tuesday. The Federal Budget for fiscal 2016/17 will also be announced. Retail Sales and trade balance (Thur) also a focus. 

NZD: Unemployment data (Tue) will be the foal point along with the usual GDT  auction.

GBP: PMIs are the focus. Manufacturing on Tuesday, construction on Wednesday, services on Thursday with a general weakening expected. 

JPY: Monday and Friday are the only trading days for Jpy. Watch out for any MoF/BoJ intervention in low liquidity times. Also, on Friday watch out as the Nikkei catches up to other equity markets.

CAD: employment data is released alongside NFP, with a 5k fall expected to lift unemployment to 7.2% from 7.1%. March trade data is on Wednesday, building permits are on Thursday.We also have BoC speakers:  Poloz on Tuesday, Schembri on Friday.

Going into the week, I continue to favour short AudJpy & Usd/Jpy, long EurAud and EurUsd. 

Trading Signals from a Hedge Fund Manager

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So, what we would like to do is offer an introductory rate of $60 AUD per month to use the service to FX Renew Members Only. There is a per user technology charge for the service that we have to pay so we do need to charge a nominal fee at this point in time to cover costs. The full rate, once we go live, will be within the $150-200 AUD a month range.

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Weekly Game Plan - 24.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

The fears of China's clowdown, the oil supply glut and aggressive Fed rate hikes that were driving down emerging markets, US high yield and USD-oil pegs seem to be reversing. Th calendar is quite full this week so going into detail:

US: the FOMC (Wed) is expected to stand pat and sound slighty dovish after nixed/worse US data.  Q1 GDP will also be highly watched and is likely to be weak. On Friday we'll aslo see Chicago PMI (expected to slip to 52.5 from 53.6). 

UK: UK GDP (Wed) is expected slower, but in the UK, everything continues to be driven by the upcoming EU in/out referendum. On Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is questioned by the House of Commons Treasury Committee about the cost/benefit of EU membership.

NZD: The RBNZ meets on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Both Australia and New Zealand are closed on Monday.

EU: Monday we will have IFO We will be seeing Q1 GDP (Fri) which will be quite influential alongside the CPI print.

Cad & Aud: GDP will also be the highlight in Canada, while CPI will be the focus in Australia.

Going into the week I favour Jpy & Nzd weakness vs. Gbp and Cad strength. Euro is marginally weak as well, so EurGbp and EurCad also look interesting.

Weekly Game Plan - 17.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities 

Risk appetite still positive, supported by recovery in the US and China and easy policy conditions. We should also watch the outcome of the Doha meeting for implications on Crude, Commodity Currencies (namely Cad) and risk appetite (since equities have been recently tracking Crude).

US: A quiet week for US data. We do have Fedspeak on Monday with the dovish voter Dudley, moderate Kashkari and dovish voter Rosengren later.  Don't forget the US NY Presidential Primaries on Tuesday.

EU: Main event this week is the ECB (Thur) which is set to leave policy unchanged but with dovish remarks by Draghi in the presser. The ZEW survey (Tue) to show further weakness. Flash PMIs (Fri) instead are expected to be steady/slightly positive. 

UK: Chancellor Osborne will be quizzed by the Treasury Select Committee on the cost of a Brexit (Tue) while Carney speaks at the Economic Affairs Committee. Employment data (Wed) will be key and a 15k fall in the claimant count is expected, while the ILO unemployment rate should drop to 5.0% from 5.1%. Average earnings are expected to be up by 2.3% from 2.1% prior. Retail Sales (Thur) are expected +0.1% m/m after the -0.4% prior.

AUD & NZD: The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting are on Tuesday, while later in the day Governor Stevens will be jawboning in New York. New Zealand has the first release of the week with Q1 CPI (Mon), seen up 0.3% q/q, 0.6% y/y. There is also a dairy auction on Tuesday.

CAD: Core CPI (Fri) is expected to slow to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% prior while headline should drop to 1.0% from 1.4%. February retail sales are also expected to drop. BoC’s Poloz and Wilkins are scheduled to testify before the House of Commons on Tuesday.

One of the first tasks tomorrow will be to look for the news from Doha. The likelihood of a cut is low, but that would definitely push Crude higher, and drag Comm-Dolls with it. Vice-versa, the lack of any progress might turn the recent dip into a reversal. 

Dax is consolidating near recent highs in search of a breakout, as is the Dow. But they both hinge on risk-appetite which will be impacted by the Doha round. Comm-Dolls are strong (especially Aud and Cad) but also need to incorporate the new information from Doha. The Euro remains the weakest currency going into the week.