You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
With no influential developments over the weekend, we should see a quiet start to trading this week. Main focus will be on central banks with the Fed, BOE and BOJ holding policy meetings and the usual NFP-Friday. In other news the market awaits Trump's decision on who will be the next Fed Chair since Yellen is out of the race.
USD: It will be a busy week in the US with FOMC, NFP, wage growth, trade balance, PCE price index, factory orders, construction spending and ISM PMIs.
GBP: the Bank of England will also be deciding on monetary policy and be sure to reserve your spot for our webinar on the day. We also get the 3 PMI readings during the week.
EUR: continental Europe will see it's third-quarter GDP estimates and flash inflation alongside German retail trade and unemployment.
CAD: after the BOC's decision last week, we will get speeches by Poloz, employment, trade balance and monthly GDP figures.
AsiaPac: In Japan, the Bank of Japan will meet and release its quarterly outlook report, but no changes in the monetary policy are expected. In Australia, the most important release will be retail sales. New Zealand will have it's quarterly unemployment data. From China we'll get the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. The Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs will also be watched.
Being end of month/start of new month, this week may be challenging for swing strategies and shorter-term models might be more adequate. I remain bullish on Dow; I'm also bullish on Crude Oil; I'm bearish on Euro, Cad & Aussie.
domenica 29 ottobre 2017
domenica 22 ottobre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 23.10.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Friday closed with solid USD strength following the Senate approval of a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year – that is seen as clearing the way for Republicans to pursue a tax-cut package. This week the market will be hoping for further evidence that Republicans will fast-track tax reform. On top of this, speculation on the next Fed Chairman will also be doing the rounds with Powell, Taylor as main candidates.
The political crisis in Spain continues to escalate as Rajoy announced on Saturday he would invoke special constitutional powers to fire the regional government and force a new election to counter the region's move towards independence. Catalan President Puigdemont called Rajoy's moves the "worst attacks against the people of Catalonia" since Spain's military dictatorship. The Euro hasn't responded to the political crisis yet, but capital has started to leave Europe.
PM Abe is en-route to secure his "supermajority" again in Japanese elections. This could provoke a knee-jerk reaction to sell JPY due to one of the cornerstones of “Abenomics” is a weak currency.
USD: In the US, the most important release will be the advance estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter.
EUR: the ECB decision is the main focus this week, beyond flash PMI data.
GBP: in the UK, investors will be closely watching the preliminary estimate of GDP growth.
CAD: the Bank of Canada policy decision is the main event, along with the accompanying press conference.
AsiaPac: in Australia, consumer price inflation, producer inflation and foreign trade prices will be in the spotlight. New Zealand releases the trade balance numbers instead.
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow and bearish on the US10YR bond. In FX, I'm bearish NZD, JPY and CAD vs USD.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Friday closed with solid USD strength following the Senate approval of a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year – that is seen as clearing the way for Republicans to pursue a tax-cut package. This week the market will be hoping for further evidence that Republicans will fast-track tax reform. On top of this, speculation on the next Fed Chairman will also be doing the rounds with Powell, Taylor as main candidates.
The political crisis in Spain continues to escalate as Rajoy announced on Saturday he would invoke special constitutional powers to fire the regional government and force a new election to counter the region's move towards independence. Catalan President Puigdemont called Rajoy's moves the "worst attacks against the people of Catalonia" since Spain's military dictatorship. The Euro hasn't responded to the political crisis yet, but capital has started to leave Europe.
PM Abe is en-route to secure his "supermajority" again in Japanese elections. This could provoke a knee-jerk reaction to sell JPY due to one of the cornerstones of “Abenomics” is a weak currency.
USD: In the US, the most important release will be the advance estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter.
EUR: the ECB decision is the main focus this week, beyond flash PMI data.
GBP: in the UK, investors will be closely watching the preliminary estimate of GDP growth.
CAD: the Bank of Canada policy decision is the main event, along with the accompanying press conference.
AsiaPac: in Australia, consumer price inflation, producer inflation and foreign trade prices will be in the spotlight. New Zealand releases the trade balance numbers instead.
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow and bearish on the US10YR bond. In FX, I'm bearish NZD, JPY and CAD vs USD.
domenica 15 ottobre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 16.10.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Over the weekend, FED's Yellen sketched a bright outlook for the U.S. economy and for inflation prospects. A bit less enthusiasm from BOJ's Kuroda who believes markets are underestimating geopolitical risk. He also said the BOJ's inflation target is still far from being achieved.
Meanwhile, in Spain, Rajoy has given Puigdemont until tomorrow to clearly state whether he has declared independence from Spain. Recall that Puigdemont had suspended the independence process, wanting to discuss with Rajoy - but was ignored. It's not Puigdemont that's in a bad position: it's Rajoy because unilaterally ceising control of Catalonia will demonstrate to the whole world that Spain has returned to a dictatorship.
Across the Channel, a powerful cross-party group of MPs is drawing up plans that would make it impossible for Theresa May to allow Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal in 2019.
USD: dull calendar for the US this week, so focus will likely be elsewhere. In China, the focus will be on China's National Party Congress and GDP growth, inflation, industrial production and retail trade figures. Investors will also be waiting for: UK retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages; Eurozone inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data and results of general election in Japan.
EUR: the main focus in Europe this week will be Ger ZEW. Beyond that, keep an eye on Spanish politics, Brexit talks and banking sector woes. Much is still "background" sentiment for now, but there are many straws that could break the camel's back so to speak.
GBP: investors will be closely watching retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages in an attempt to guesstimate the next move at the BOE. We will also have a speech by Carney (Wed).
CAD: we will have to wait until Friday to get retail sales and inflation data.
AsiaPac: In China, the focus will be the 19th national congress of the Communist Party and the release of GDP. Other key data include consumer and producer prices, industrial production, retail trade and fixed asset investment. Japan will come into focus as the general election will take place at the end of the week. In Australia, RBA meeting minutes and employment data will be in the spotlight. NZD will release the Quarterly CPI print.
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow. I'm now bullish on Aud vs. USD, EUR and potentially GBP depending on the Brexit negotiations.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Over the weekend, FED's Yellen sketched a bright outlook for the U.S. economy and for inflation prospects. A bit less enthusiasm from BOJ's Kuroda who believes markets are underestimating geopolitical risk. He also said the BOJ's inflation target is still far from being achieved.
Meanwhile, in Spain, Rajoy has given Puigdemont until tomorrow to clearly state whether he has declared independence from Spain. Recall that Puigdemont had suspended the independence process, wanting to discuss with Rajoy - but was ignored. It's not Puigdemont that's in a bad position: it's Rajoy because unilaterally ceising control of Catalonia will demonstrate to the whole world that Spain has returned to a dictatorship.
Across the Channel, a powerful cross-party group of MPs is drawing up plans that would make it impossible for Theresa May to allow Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal in 2019.
USD: dull calendar for the US this week, so focus will likely be elsewhere. In China, the focus will be on China's National Party Congress and GDP growth, inflation, industrial production and retail trade figures. Investors will also be waiting for: UK retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages; Eurozone inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data and results of general election in Japan.
EUR: the main focus in Europe this week will be Ger ZEW. Beyond that, keep an eye on Spanish politics, Brexit talks and banking sector woes. Much is still "background" sentiment for now, but there are many straws that could break the camel's back so to speak.
GBP: investors will be closely watching retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages in an attempt to guesstimate the next move at the BOE. We will also have a speech by Carney (Wed).
CAD: we will have to wait until Friday to get retail sales and inflation data.
AsiaPac: In China, the focus will be the 19th national congress of the Communist Party and the release of GDP. Other key data include consumer and producer prices, industrial production, retail trade and fixed asset investment. Japan will come into focus as the general election will take place at the end of the week. In Australia, RBA meeting minutes and employment data will be in the spotlight. NZD will release the Quarterly CPI print.
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow. I'm now bullish on Aud vs. USD, EUR and potentially GBP depending on the Brexit negotiations.
domenica 8 ottobre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 9.10.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Some political news from the weekend that will be in focus when the markets open:
This week will mostly be about FOMC minutes and fedspeak following the surge in average hourly earnings in the latest NFP report. Other market moving events will be Draghi's speech on Thursday and US Retail Sales/CPI duo on Friday.
USD: the main event will be FOMC minutes, which are expected to provide further details of the central bank's plan to unwind its asset purchases. But watch out for Retail Sales and CPI as well on Friday, which will be interesting to watch as a confirmation of the jump in wages.
EUR: beyond Draghi's speech on Thursday, nothing else is worth mentioning.
GBP: markets will focus on industrial production, construction and trade data.
AsiaPac: China opens for business after being absent for a week and will provide Caixin services PMI, trade and foreign investment.
In Australia, the RBA will publish its Financial Stability Review. NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence are tier 2 events that will offer more insight into how the Australian economy is holding up.
Going into the week I will remain bullish on US equities, bearish on GBP & NZD vs. USD.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Some political news from the weekend that will be in focus when the markets open:
- Tensions in Catalonia are on the rise and political leaders in Barcelona and Madrid remain in a deadlock. The Euro hasn't suffered much pressure yet, but this is a theme to keep tabs on.
- After counting the 17% “special votes” in NZD, the incumbent National party has lost two seats to Labour and the Greens. Peters (NZ First) has said he will make a decision which party to back to form a coalition government by October 12th.
- Late on Friday there were jitters about a possible NKorea missle test over the weekend which caused some safe-haven purchasing. Nothing happened as of yet, so the markets are likely to undo those positions.
- UK PM May's position is weakening by the day. Reports say that her Brexit plans have been rejected by France & Germany.
This week will mostly be about FOMC minutes and fedspeak following the surge in average hourly earnings in the latest NFP report. Other market moving events will be Draghi's speech on Thursday and US Retail Sales/CPI duo on Friday.
USD: the main event will be FOMC minutes, which are expected to provide further details of the central bank's plan to unwind its asset purchases. But watch out for Retail Sales and CPI as well on Friday, which will be interesting to watch as a confirmation of the jump in wages.
EUR: beyond Draghi's speech on Thursday, nothing else is worth mentioning.
GBP: markets will focus on industrial production, construction and trade data.
AsiaPac: China opens for business after being absent for a week and will provide Caixin services PMI, trade and foreign investment.
In Australia, the RBA will publish its Financial Stability Review. NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence are tier 2 events that will offer more insight into how the Australian economy is holding up.
Going into the week I will remain bullish on US equities, bearish on GBP & NZD vs. USD.
domenica 1 ottobre 2017
Weekly Game Plan 2.10.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Welcome to the start of Q4 trading. This week will probably be better traded with short-term models as geo-politics and key data will keep volatility high. Markets will need to digest Rajoy's reaction to the referndum result in Catalonia; and markets will also be on the lookout for details of Trump's tax plans. Meanwhile on Saturday, China's Manuf. PMI data was unambiguously strong as large manufacturers raised production. The main scheduled market movers in the week ahead will be the RBA decision, ECB Minutes, and NFP.
USD: busy week ahead that culminates with NFP-Friday. Ahead of the big event we get trade balance, factory orders. construction spending, ISM PMIs.
GBP: In the UK we get the PMI figures which will be market-moving. UK PM May is under pressure and is losing confidence as a leader, ahead of the Conservative Party conference this week.
EUR: we need to wait & see how the Euro will digest the referendum outcome in Spain. Main market moving events will be ECB meeting minutes and final PMI data for the Eurozone & Germany. Markets will also focus on the Eurozone unemployment and retail trade; and Germany factory orders.
CAD: couple of decent events for the Loonie as well: employment and trade balance.
AsiaPac: for Japan, analysts are eyeing Tankan's quarterly business condition results. Australia has a busy week with the RBA policy decision, AIG Services Index and retail sales. Meanwhile in China, markets will be closed to celebrate the National Day Golden Week.
Going into the week, things aren't exactly clear. From a monthly perspective,it would seem that further losses for Cad, Aud & Jpy are possible, against a more positive outlook for the USD. So I'll maintain that bias with caution this week.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Welcome to the start of Q4 trading. This week will probably be better traded with short-term models as geo-politics and key data will keep volatility high. Markets will need to digest Rajoy's reaction to the referndum result in Catalonia; and markets will also be on the lookout for details of Trump's tax plans. Meanwhile on Saturday, China's Manuf. PMI data was unambiguously strong as large manufacturers raised production. The main scheduled market movers in the week ahead will be the RBA decision, ECB Minutes, and NFP.
USD: busy week ahead that culminates with NFP-Friday. Ahead of the big event we get trade balance, factory orders. construction spending, ISM PMIs.
GBP: In the UK we get the PMI figures which will be market-moving. UK PM May is under pressure and is losing confidence as a leader, ahead of the Conservative Party conference this week.
EUR: we need to wait & see how the Euro will digest the referendum outcome in Spain. Main market moving events will be ECB meeting minutes and final PMI data for the Eurozone & Germany. Markets will also focus on the Eurozone unemployment and retail trade; and Germany factory orders.
CAD: couple of decent events for the Loonie as well: employment and trade balance.
AsiaPac: for Japan, analysts are eyeing Tankan's quarterly business condition results. Australia has a busy week with the RBA policy decision, AIG Services Index and retail sales. Meanwhile in China, markets will be closed to celebrate the National Day Golden Week.
Going into the week, things aren't exactly clear. From a monthly perspective,it would seem that further losses for Cad, Aud & Jpy are possible, against a more positive outlook for the USD. So I'll maintain that bias with caution this week.
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