You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
With no market moving news from the weekend, along with the Japanese Golden Week holiday, markets should remain calm until Europe starts to move things around. We are carrying two themes with us from last week. The first is about US inflationary pressures as US company reports warned of rising prices after posting outstanding quarterly profits. This likely means that Core PCE will be a key event, and will skew expectations for Average Earnings (due on Friday with NFP). The second theme is the dismal UK Q1 GDP which has significantly altered BOE expectations.
It should be a big week as geopolitics, more US corporate earnings, central bank meetings and some key data compete for the roles of key driver of market trends. The RBA meets on Tuesday (no change expected), the FOMC meets on Wednesday (no change expected). US non-farm payrolls for April will be the key event and we finally have a focal point in the average earnings (expected +0.2% M/M and +2.8% Y/Y versus +0.3% and +2.7% in March).
Elsewhere, we get Canadian GDP, UK PMIs, China data.
Going into the week, I remain biased short on GBP, EUR & JPY. USD & CAD appear to be the strong candidates as of Friday’s close. Also, for the 3rd week in a row I remain biased long on FTSE.
lunedì 30 aprile 2018
domenica 22 aprile 2018
Weekly Game Plan 23.4.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Last week ended with a rally in the US Dollar driven by higher yields as some large position adjustments made by funds ahead of month-end and a growing consensus that inflation pressures in the US will eventually force yields higher. This week should start off with a tad of optimism after North Korea said on Saturday it would immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, scrap its nuclear test site and instead pursue economic growth and peace, ahead of planned summits with South Korea and the United States.
However, a more cautious mood may prevail after the initial boost, since declining global PMIs are starting to show up in some analyst reports. Moreover, there are a number of risks that market participants have at the top of mind: soggy data out of Europe, trade protectionism, China uncertainty, a volatile/unpredictable White House and the FED which might hike into an economic downturn.
Key earnings reports from US tech giants including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft should also influence the markets. THus far, despite a great earnings season, the Dow hasn't done much at all, which isn't a good sign and adds to the cautious sentiment that is building.
As far as macro data goes, this week we get the ECB and BOJ meetings, AU CPI, NZ Trade Data, US & UK GDP.
Going into the week I will be looking for further USD strength vs. AUD, NZD and GBP. FTSE looks poised for further gains as does Crude Oil.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Last week ended with a rally in the US Dollar driven by higher yields as some large position adjustments made by funds ahead of month-end and a growing consensus that inflation pressures in the US will eventually force yields higher. This week should start off with a tad of optimism after North Korea said on Saturday it would immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, scrap its nuclear test site and instead pursue economic growth and peace, ahead of planned summits with South Korea and the United States.
However, a more cautious mood may prevail after the initial boost, since declining global PMIs are starting to show up in some analyst reports. Moreover, there are a number of risks that market participants have at the top of mind: soggy data out of Europe, trade protectionism, China uncertainty, a volatile/unpredictable White House and the FED which might hike into an economic downturn.
Key earnings reports from US tech giants including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft should also influence the markets. THus far, despite a great earnings season, the Dow hasn't done much at all, which isn't a good sign and adds to the cautious sentiment that is building.
As far as macro data goes, this week we get the ECB and BOJ meetings, AU CPI, NZ Trade Data, US & UK GDP.
Going into the week I will be looking for further USD strength vs. AUD, NZD and GBP. FTSE looks poised for further gains as does Crude Oil.
domenica 15 aprile 2018
Weekly Game Plan 16.4.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
This week might start with additional volatility, as the market digests the news of US, UK and French missile attacks on plants in Syria suspected of producing chemicals used in warfare. The real issue is whether Russia will retaliate in any way, and what strategy (if any) Trump has for this contingency. This may overshadow the US/China trade tensions unless/until more gas is thrown on that fire.
US earnings will also be in focus with the bar set high, as companies benefit from the corporate tax breaks. Around 12% of the S&P 500 will be reporting this week. Instead, on the data front, we get employment data in Australia, NZD CPI, China data; UK employment, inflation and retail sales; US Retail Sales, Cad Retail Sales, CPI & Bank of Canada decision are the North American highlights.
The Loonie was the top performer last week in the FX market and remains at the top of the list this week. Crude Oil and FTSE are other markets that appear poised for further gains, but we need to see where the markets sit after the weekend news is digested.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
This week might start with additional volatility, as the market digests the news of US, UK and French missile attacks on plants in Syria suspected of producing chemicals used in warfare. The real issue is whether Russia will retaliate in any way, and what strategy (if any) Trump has for this contingency. This may overshadow the US/China trade tensions unless/until more gas is thrown on that fire.
US earnings will also be in focus with the bar set high, as companies benefit from the corporate tax breaks. Around 12% of the S&P 500 will be reporting this week. Instead, on the data front, we get employment data in Australia, NZD CPI, China data; UK employment, inflation and retail sales; US Retail Sales, Cad Retail Sales, CPI & Bank of Canada decision are the North American highlights.
The Loonie was the top performer last week in the FX market and remains at the top of the list this week. Crude Oil and FTSE are other markets that appear poised for further gains, but we need to see where the markets sit after the weekend news is digested.
domenica 8 aprile 2018
Weekly Game Plan 9.4.18
Apologies for the extended silence. Back to our normal programming! You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The weekend press was populated by analysis of trade war ramifications between the US and China. It's not really fresh news so it should be a fairly quiet start in Wellington. We got some hawkish commentary from Fed's Evans on Saturday, but he said nothing different than Powell and the USD hasn't been receiving any love.
This week will be all about NAFTA and US/China tensions. If Trump proceeds with tariffs on additional US 100 BLN worth of Chinese imports to the US, the Chinese response will be rapid and equally high. Just remember that in a trade war, it will be the exporting countries that suffer and Canada & the EU are much more dependant on exports than China or the US. So in a trade war, the actual losers are not US or China.
Beyond the geopolitical issues, US earnings season for Q1 begins next week and expectations are sky-high due to the impact of the US corporate tax cuts...so naturally the risk is for a disappointment which could put more pressure on indices.
Data wise we only have US CPI and China data this week.
Going into the week I like GBP strength vs. AUD & EUR; I also like Aud weakness vs. Cad strength. US equities are bearish as is Crude Oil. However, things might rapidly change depending on this week's drivers so stay nimble.
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