Weekly Game Plan 18.2.19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Firstly, remember that Monday is a holiday in North America. Over the weejend, Trump received an update on trade talks with China which were "very productive." Talks will continue in the coming week in Washington. Also, UK PM May is to hold Brexit talks with EC President Juncker this week.
Themes for the Week Ahead:

• Risk Appetite: last week's risk rally was based on US/China trade talks and the dovish shift in the FED and other central banks. These factors will remain at top of mind this week, since US/China trade talks continue and the Fed will release the Minutes from their recent meeting.  However, the mood will sour quickly if the Minutes and/or Trade Talks show anything different from expectations.
• Earnings, Slowdown, Recession?  Analysts are still looking for a deeper correction in stocks and have taken their cue from Ed Yardeni's Boom/Bust indicator which is pointing at lower stock prices in the short term. 
• More on Growth:  U.S. and euro zone "flash" PMI data is released this week as the market focuses more and more on growth issues worldwide.
• Turmoil in Spain: PM Sanchez has called snap elections for April 28 and opinion polls show no single party would win enough votes to govern. Coalition scenarios point to lengthy negotiations between various parties - potentially including the far-right Vox.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• RBA Minutes
• UK Employment
• EU ZEW and IFO
• FOMC Minutes
• AU Employment
• CAD Retail Sales

On the Radar:
I still have a long bias on equities, although we are approaching key levels on US indices. I also have a long bias on Crude Oil. In FX, the Euro remains rather week and the best option is EurNzd short for now. If the risk-on theme continues, NzdJpy will be a decent candidate.

Weekly Game Plan 11.2.19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The FX market is struggling to find a trend and with no news out over the weekend, we might have a quiet start to the week unless China returns from the holidays and creates a risk-off environment after Trump said he won't be meeting Xi before the March 1st deadline.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• US/China trade debate: Trump & Xi won't be meeting ahead of the March 1st deadline and that should be a negative for risk assets (commodities, EM, China & china proxies like Aud). However, high level trade talks between the two countries resume this week and the markets will be playing very close to any developments or lack thereof.
• RBNZ: the bank is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75% and echo the dovish tilt that Fed, RBA and ECB already touted. Also, the NZ jobs data came in weaker than expected.
• Brexit: the markets' conviction that a no-deal Brexit will be avoided may be starting to fade. Feb. 13 will see PM May in the British parliament again but what can really change? What amendments can be made that will satisfy Europe? I still believe no-deal is the default option.
• US Government Shutdown: it didn't perturb markets before, and it probably won't perturb them again if the US government shuts down again.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• US CPI and Retail Sales
• EU Q4 Flash GDP
• German GDP
• UK  Q4 Prelim-GDP
• China CPI and trade data

On the radar:

There are a few caveats to this watchlist, but broadly speaking I like Eur, Aud, Nzd weakness vs. USD and JPY. I also have a short stance on the Dax.

Weekly Game Plan 4.2.19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Over the weekend, China PMIs came out softer than expected but with China closed for the Lunar New Year we might not get much of a reaction. But it's certainly not a great sign, given the market's focus on growth measures after the FOMC came out and admitted conditions are tense. Risk sentiment could be impacted by the data especially after US/China trade talks didn't really produce tangible results and the March 1 deadline for further tariff increases draws near.
Themes for the Week:

• Bank Of England: the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold amidst Brexit uncertainty, and perhaps start discussing contingency plans for a Hard Brexit.
• RBA decision: the markets are pricing in a rate cut by the end of 2019 but 1/3 of analysts still believe the next move will be up. I'd side with the markets' expectations here. So we might get some dovishness from Lowe. We also get Lowe on Wednesday and the RBA SOMP will be released on Friday.
• Wall Street will continue to focus on US earnings with close to 20% of the S&P 500 reporting in the week ahead – with Alphabet, Twitter and Disney the names in the spotlight.
• Fedspeak: the markets will also be eager to hear any further detail from Powell  & Co. regarding their assessment of current conditions.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• Trump delivers his State of the Union speech before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night at 9pmET
• Canada Employment (Wilkins noted that the BoC expects a rebound in economic growth in Q2 and faster wage gains)
• UK PMIs (should be more influential now that the market is focused on growth measures)
• AU Retail Sales
• NZD Employment

On the Radar:
Into last week's close, US stocks started to look more attractive although we are approaching influential resistance above. Timid longs in Dow could be attempted. Crude Oil also closed strongly last week on the Venezuela issues and remains volatile but biased up. In FX, CAD is the leader and I like it vs. Eur, Jpy and Usd.  Aud will be interesting after the RBA, and the Pound after the BOE.