Trading Signals from a Hedge Fund Manager

Dear Coin flippers,

I'm happy to announce that one of the initiatives we're been working on over at FXRenew is finally here: a copy-trading platform, through which our resident hedge fund trader (Mr. 888) is directing the show.

Here is the platform login: http://signals.fxrenew.com/auth.php

Why are we doing this?

Not all trading styles are adequate for proper signal creation. Mr. 888 is a rather short term trader, and we have discontinued old-fashioned signals in favour of a direct copy-trading service.The new auto-signals solution we have chosen will allow you to replicate the trades in the Fund directly into your account as they are placed. For example, if 888 goes long a currency pair, then the same trade would be placed in your account. When he exits, the trade in your account would be closed.

The 888 Fund is fully transparent, so not only do you get to read about what he is doing in the daily report, but you can see independently verified real time performance statistics inside the auto-signals portal.

We are now opening up the fund to early adopters via a “soft launch”.  The technology solution is very stable and has been in use for a number of years (and we know the owner of the company providing the solution), so we are very confident in it’s stability and reliability. In saying that we do want to thoroughly make sure all the boxes have been ticked before we properly launch the fund to the public.

So, what we would like to do is offer an introductory rate of $60 AUD per month to use the service to FX Renew Members Only. There is a per user technology charge for the service that we have to pay so we do need to charge a nominal fee at this point in time to cover costs. The full rate, once we go live, will be within the $150-200 AUD a month range.

The $60 a month rate will be locked in for life, so if you join early and help us get the nuts and bolts worked out, you get to keep the low rate, even after we go live as a thank you. I believe this offers great value given 888’s 20+ years experience in banks and hedge funds.

A few details:

- The fund targets 300 pips a month, and uses a fixed lot size of 10,000 (about 50 pips a month gets you to break even after costs).

- 888’s trading style is discretionary and uses a mix of fundamentals and technical inputs.

- It is scale-able, so you can adjust your position size to make it larger or smaller, depending on your needs. Of course this changes the return equation.

- To access the fund all you need is a C-trader or MT4 account. This can be with any broker, though we do recommend a Pepperstone razor account to best match the funds performance.

- You can stop and start trading at any time.

- There are a variety of additional risk management parameters you can set in the account.

- The technology provider offer live help-desk support inside the portal if you have an issue getting set-up.

- You need your computer running to use the solution, but there is a VPS option provided as an additional fee which operates 24/7 (more details in the portal).

- You can start with as low as $1000, but we recommend $5000 or $10,000. There is more information on this in the 888 Fund FAQ, which can be found in the portal.

To login to the portal and check out the performance stats is FREE. You only pay if you decide you want to follow the trading in the Fund.

Needless to say, I'm quite excited about this launch. If you have any questions, get in touch.

justin@fxrenew.com   jupafx@gmail.com

Weekly Game Plan - 24.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

The fears of China's clowdown, the oil supply glut and aggressive Fed rate hikes that were driving down emerging markets, US high yield and USD-oil pegs seem to be reversing. Th calendar is quite full this week so going into detail:

US: the FOMC (Wed) is expected to stand pat and sound slighty dovish after nixed/worse US data.  Q1 GDP will also be highly watched and is likely to be weak. On Friday we'll aslo see Chicago PMI (expected to slip to 52.5 from 53.6). 

UK: UK GDP (Wed) is expected slower, but in the UK, everything continues to be driven by the upcoming EU in/out referendum. On Thursday, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne is questioned by the House of Commons Treasury Committee about the cost/benefit of EU membership.

NZD: The RBNZ meets on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Both Australia and New Zealand are closed on Monday.

EU: Monday we will have IFO We will be seeing Q1 GDP (Fri) which will be quite influential alongside the CPI print.

Cad & Aud: GDP will also be the highlight in Canada, while CPI will be the focus in Australia.

Going into the week I favour Jpy & Nzd weakness vs. Gbp and Cad strength. Euro is marginally weak as well, so EurGbp and EurCad also look interesting.

Weekly Game Plan - 17.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities 

Risk appetite still positive, supported by recovery in the US and China and easy policy conditions. We should also watch the outcome of the Doha meeting for implications on Crude, Commodity Currencies (namely Cad) and risk appetite (since equities have been recently tracking Crude).

US: A quiet week for US data. We do have Fedspeak on Monday with the dovish voter Dudley, moderate Kashkari and dovish voter Rosengren later.  Don't forget the US NY Presidential Primaries on Tuesday.

EU: Main event this week is the ECB (Thur) which is set to leave policy unchanged but with dovish remarks by Draghi in the presser. The ZEW survey (Tue) to show further weakness. Flash PMIs (Fri) instead are expected to be steady/slightly positive. 

UK: Chancellor Osborne will be quizzed by the Treasury Select Committee on the cost of a Brexit (Tue) while Carney speaks at the Economic Affairs Committee. Employment data (Wed) will be key and a 15k fall in the claimant count is expected, while the ILO unemployment rate should drop to 5.0% from 5.1%. Average earnings are expected to be up by 2.3% from 2.1% prior. Retail Sales (Thur) are expected +0.1% m/m after the -0.4% prior.

AUD & NZD: The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting are on Tuesday, while later in the day Governor Stevens will be jawboning in New York. New Zealand has the first release of the week with Q1 CPI (Mon), seen up 0.3% q/q, 0.6% y/y. There is also a dairy auction on Tuesday.

CAD: Core CPI (Fri) is expected to slow to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% prior while headline should drop to 1.0% from 1.4%. February retail sales are also expected to drop. BoC’s Poloz and Wilkins are scheduled to testify before the House of Commons on Tuesday.

One of the first tasks tomorrow will be to look for the news from Doha. The likelihood of a cut is low, but that would definitely push Crude higher, and drag Comm-Dolls with it. Vice-versa, the lack of any progress might turn the recent dip into a reversal. 

Dax is consolidating near recent highs in search of a breakout, as is the Dow. But they both hinge on risk-appetite which will be impacted by the Doha round. Comm-Dolls are strong (especially Aud and Cad) but also need to incorporate the new information from Doha. The Euro remains the weakest currency going into the week. 

Weekly Game Plan - 10.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

Risk appetite:  China's CPI (Mon), Trade Balance (Tue), GDP-Industrial Production-Retail Sales (Fri) will play an important role in shaping the outlook for commodity currencies and risk appetite this week. Exports are expected to rebound sharply but GDP growth will most likely slow. Chinese data also matters to the U.S. because the Fed's primary concern right now is global uncertainty. The resulting sentiment is easy to read: good numbers will drive risk appetite higher and rebound the Jpys, Crude, and Comm dolls; bad numbers will add more pressure. IMF Economic forecast updates (Tue) will also contribute to the risk-appetite equation.

US: Retail sales (Wed) and industrial production (Fri) are expected to show modest growth. CPI (Thur) is also expected to reach the highest level since mid-2012. US data has been mixed recently, but a good print especially in CPI can fuel USD strength.

UK: Bank of England should maintain rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.50% and GBP375bn, respectively, with voting decisions to be unanimous, i.e. 9-0. CPI, on the other hand, is expected to rise modestly. GBP is under pressure and there aren't any real winds of change.

CAD: BoC (Wed) should leave rates on hold. The stabilisation in Crude Oil, a key sector for Canada, has reduced some of the pressure on the BoC to consider further policy easing despite mixed data output. 

AUD:  home loans and lending finance (Mon) are expected to tick up,  whereas employment data (Thur) could rise 6.2k and unemployment rate rising to 5.9%. Finally, the RBA releases its Financial Stability Review on Friday and focus is on the RBA’s assessment of the housing market. It mentioned pockets of stress in its last missive, and those pockets have likely worsened since. A more cautious tone would feed into a broader narrative consistent with more eventual easing.

Energy: The oil producers’ meeting to discuss an output freeze on 17th April looms as a key date for the oil price outlook. In the meantime, the coming week’s updates of oil supply and demand forecasts from the IEA, OPEC and the US government will impact on prices.

Going into the week, I still favour shorts on Gbp vs. Cad, Jpy and Eur. Aud is also weakening vs. Nzd and Jpy; UsdCad remains bearish as Crude climbs back to recent highs; Copper remains a sell on rallies.

Weekly Game Plan - 3.4.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

- FED dot-plot still creating exchange rate volatility. Fedspeak will be in focus this week with Minutes of US Fed’s March policy meeting (Wed) and a round table with Fed Chair Yellen and previous Fed Chairs (Thu).

- March service sector data (US ISM, EU Services & UK PMI on Tue, CHN Caixin on Wed) generally expected to show stronger activity whereas the UK Construction PMI (Mon) & manufacturing PMI (Fri) probably worsened.

- GBP continues to weaken as polls indicate that the Brexit referendum (June 23) will be close. If UK voters opt to leave the EU, it will be seen as a significant negative for the UK (most of their goods and services exports are sold to the EU).

- RBA meets this week and will most likely remain still given we're not too distant from the 0.7-0.75 comfort zone. All in all, bullish AUD position can be considered given that recent economic conditions seem relatively stable compared to the rest of the world.

I continue to remain bearish USD vs. Eur, Aud, Nzd & Jpy although positive vibes from global risk appetite make Jpy longs more insidious. I'm also bearish GBP vs. Aud, Nzd, Eur.

Skimming across other markets, Copper & Crude are starting to attract bearish attention while US indices remain well bid.