You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The week might start with some GBP strength since BOE Dep Gov Ramsden said in an interview with the UK Times that the BOE may need to raise interest rates again sooner than he previously thought, if wage growth picks up early this year. This is significant because Ramsden was one of two MPC members who voted against the BOE hike in November.
Beyond this, markets will be focused on the new Fed President Powell’s testimony before the House on Tuesday. As usual, he will have to walk a tightrope balancing his words carefully in order to not spook markets and enhance volatility again.
On the data front, there is much tier-2 data out this week but no tier-1 releases. With US inflation at the forefront of market, the core PCE Price Index might gain more attention than usual this week. In Asia, China PMIs might be more influential in this context.
Going into the week I remain bullish on Jpy vs. Eur & Nzd in particular. Nzd closed the week in a weak stance so GbpNzd longs may be in the cards as well. In other markets, I have a bearish bias on Silver this week and a renewed bullish stance on the Dow.
domenica 25 febbraio 2018
domenica 18 febbraio 2018
Weekly Game Plan 19.2.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
On Friday, the US Commerce Department recommended that President Trump impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China and other countries. Whether this will take place or not is yet to be seen, but evidently China's Commerce Ministry said they would take necessary steps to protect their interests if the final decision affects China.
With that said, the Wellington open should be fairly quiet. Tomorrow is a US holiday and some of the Asian markets will remain closed early in the week due to Lunar New Year. The indictments resulting from the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the US 2016 election caused a few market ripples on Friday, but there wasn’t anything new revealed that could jeopardize Trump's status.
Data-wise, in the US there are some Fed officials speaking over the week on growth outlook. In Europe there is a moderate data calendar in the coming week. There are updates on various business confidence and activity measures, the services PMIs and inflation. In the UK things are more interesting, with updates on employment and wages. Australia has the RBA minutes and updates on construction and wages measures. Canada releases it’s most recent CPI and Retail Sales Data.
Don't miss our Webinar on Friday entitled "Navigating Event Risk: Canadian CPI & Italian Elections"
Going into the week, I like Copper longs, and tentative/cautious longs on Dow. Within FX, NZD seems to be the leader as of Friday's close, whereas Euro and Cad are weakening.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
On Friday, the US Commerce Department recommended that President Trump impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China and other countries. Whether this will take place or not is yet to be seen, but evidently China's Commerce Ministry said they would take necessary steps to protect their interests if the final decision affects China.
With that said, the Wellington open should be fairly quiet. Tomorrow is a US holiday and some of the Asian markets will remain closed early in the week due to Lunar New Year. The indictments resulting from the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the US 2016 election caused a few market ripples on Friday, but there wasn’t anything new revealed that could jeopardize Trump's status.
Data-wise, in the US there are some Fed officials speaking over the week on growth outlook. In Europe there is a moderate data calendar in the coming week. There are updates on various business confidence and activity measures, the services PMIs and inflation. In the UK things are more interesting, with updates on employment and wages. Australia has the RBA minutes and updates on construction and wages measures. Canada releases it’s most recent CPI and Retail Sales Data.
Don't miss our Webinar on Friday entitled "Navigating Event Risk: Canadian CPI & Italian Elections"
Going into the week, I like Copper longs, and tentative/cautious longs on Dow. Within FX, NZD seems to be the leader as of Friday's close, whereas Euro and Cad are weakening.
domenica 4 febbraio 2018
Weekly Game Plan 5.2.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
* Have you Voiced your concerns about the recent propositions from ESMA? Tomorrow's the deadline, move quickly to save retail trading in Europe and the UK!
US politics might be back on center stage this week as the Nunes Memo has been released. The FBI and the Democrats fought this release (which Trump has instead pushed forward) because it confirms just how much power corrupts: the FBI and Department of Justice abused their surveillance authority to target Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. This is a criminal act and we can expect a long lasting case in court. The markets have yet to respond. Beyond this new development, the US debt ceiling will need to be addressed on Feb 8.
Central banks will be in focus with the RBA, RBNZ and Bank of England deciding on rates. The RBA will likely remain on hold; the RBNZ is expected to keep rates on hold after surprisingly weak inflation data but may comment about the level of the NZD; the Bank of England will also release their Quarterly Inflation Report and hold a press conference while Governor Carney publishes his open letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is above the 3.0% target. As for the the Fed, pay close attention to speeches from the NY Fed’s Dudley and SF Fed’s Williams.
Other key releases this week are: UK services PMI and Industrial Production; NZD employment change; Cad employment change; China Caixin services PMI, Trade data, CPI and PPI. Australia Retail Sales, Trade data and Housing Finance.
Going into the week I am bearish on US equities for the first time in months; I remain bearish the Aussie; I'm bearish on Silver; I remain bearish on US bonds.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
* Have you Voiced your concerns about the recent propositions from ESMA? Tomorrow's the deadline, move quickly to save retail trading in Europe and the UK!
US politics might be back on center stage this week as the Nunes Memo has been released. The FBI and the Democrats fought this release (which Trump has instead pushed forward) because it confirms just how much power corrupts: the FBI and Department of Justice abused their surveillance authority to target Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. This is a criminal act and we can expect a long lasting case in court. The markets have yet to respond. Beyond this new development, the US debt ceiling will need to be addressed on Feb 8.
Central banks will be in focus with the RBA, RBNZ and Bank of England deciding on rates. The RBA will likely remain on hold; the RBNZ is expected to keep rates on hold after surprisingly weak inflation data but may comment about the level of the NZD; the Bank of England will also release their Quarterly Inflation Report and hold a press conference while Governor Carney publishes his open letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is above the 3.0% target. As for the the Fed, pay close attention to speeches from the NY Fed’s Dudley and SF Fed’s Williams.
Other key releases this week are: UK services PMI and Industrial Production; NZD employment change; Cad employment change; China Caixin services PMI, Trade data, CPI and PPI. Australia Retail Sales, Trade data and Housing Finance.
Going into the week I am bearish on US equities for the first time in months; I remain bearish the Aussie; I'm bearish on Silver; I remain bearish on US bonds.
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