Weekly Game Plan 1.5.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

During the weekend, China PMI data for came in on the low side of expectations. Also, EU leaders continue to play hardball with Britain. Markets have largely ignored rising tension in NoKorea for now, but the tension is more internal to NoKorea than external. The threats against the US are simply not realistic if only based on the continuous missile test failures. Remember also that Japan will be quieter this week due to Golden Week Holidays.

USD: busy week in the US. US PCE Price Index (Fed’s inflation gauge), ISM Manuf. and construction spending (Mon); ADP and ISM non-manuf (Wed), Trade data and Durable Goods (Thur). Markets will tune in for FOMC (Wed) but with no press conference or economic updates, it will probably be a dull one. NFP will be issued (Fri) and of course the focal point is AHE. Beyond that, watch out for any news on potential delays of Trump’s tax reform and/or infrastructure plan, and also S&P companies’ earnings.

EUR: busy week in the EU as well with  manuf. PMI and Unemployment (Tue), GDP (Wed), The last Televised French Presidential Debate (Wed), EU Services PMI (Thur).

GBP: 3 key UK data releases this week: PMI surveys (Tue-Thu).

CAD: BOC’s Poloz will discuss NAFTA and broader trade policy risks in Mexico City (Thur), but there’s also TSX earnings to be aware of, and unemployment (Fri).

Asia: RBA meets (Tue) and no change is expected. However watch the accompanying statement for clues on housing, labour market and inflation. 

China will issue Caixin PMIs (Tue, Thur).


Going into the week I remain bullish on the Nasdaq in particular (Dax is runner-up) and bearish Silver. GBP remains the leader in FX, whilst NZD & CAD remain the laggards.  Watch Jpy as well, as it currently sits at a crossroads and might very well weaken more into the week. 


Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan - 24.4.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

French election turnout has been strong (70% at 17.00 CET) which, according to previous speculation, would favour Macron. Initial exit polls put LePen at 25% and Macron at 22%. This was largely expected so the markets will be rather relax if this is confirmed. All bank reports expect Macron to win over LePen on May 7th. Expect Euro strength (vs. Jpy in particular) & Cac40 strength. In other news, big week ahead with 190 US companies reporting earnings, BOJ and ECB (no change expected but BOJ might taper).

USD: quiet start to the week for US data. FED’s Kashkari will speak on Monday; US Building Permits (Wed) will be followed by Durable Goods, US trades, Pending Home Sales and weekly jobless claims (Thur) but the key US data will be Friday’s Q1 advance GDP, along with Chicago PMI.

EUR: German IFO (Mon) followed by EZ sentiment data (Thur) and inflation data (Fri).

GBP: only data print is on Friday with Q1 prelim GDP.

CAD: after softer CPI data on Friday, and the large drop in Crude, the Loonie will take it’s cue from Retail Sales and Crude Oil Inventories (Wed), and GDP (Fri).

Asia: Aussie & Kiwi markets will be closed for ANZAC day so movement to recommence on Wednesday with Aus Q1 CPI. Below target inflation has been a major concern for the RBA and the focus will be on the underlying CPI data. RBA’s Lowe will be on the wires Thursday. Other Aus data will be Export and Import prices (Thur), Private Sector and Housing Credit (Fri).

BoJ (Thurs) will release it’s monetary policy statement and press conference. There is speculation about a stealth taper going on. No official move is expected but keep ears open.

Going into the week I remain bullish on GBP and bearish on CAD. GbpCad, GbpAud are all standout candidates as are CadJpy short, Crude short, FTSE short. Given what we know thus far about the French exit polls, Euro may become a strong candidate, as will Cac40.


Good Luck!

Back in the saddle tomorrow

Have been away for the weekend - back in the saddle tomorrow.

I decided to make a couple of changes on the blog as well and become vocal about a couple of initiatives I have been contributing to:

WEFOREST

LAKEWOOD MISSIONS

Giving back, in the form you most enjoy, is a crucial part of life.

Weekly Game Plan - 10.4.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Not much concrete information from Trump/Xi summit: just an agreement to work together to narrow disagreements and find common ground for cooperation. More importantly, US Q1 earning season kicks off in the week ahead and could put the post-US election Trump rally to the test. Also, a US navy strike group is heading towards he Korean peninsula. FED’S Dudley was quite hawkish Friday and assisted the reversal in USTs.

USD: Regarding NFP, consensus is that the report wasn’t bad enough to change Fed expectations and could confirm to some Fed members that the US is moving very close to full employment. Fed expectations will be in focus when Yellen speaks (Mon), then we have Kashkari (Tue). Then we have PPI and UoM sentiment (Thur); CPI & Retail sales (Fri).

EUR: Light calendar this week. GER ZEW (Tue), Ger CPI (Thur) so expect polls/news regarding French elections to be more influential.

GBP: Influential data prints out with CPI (Tue) and Unemployment (Wed)

CAD: Key week for the Loonie with the BOC decision, mon.pol. report & presser (Wed), Crude Inventories (Wed), Manuf. Sales (Thur). Regarding the BoC, the risks lean toward a clearer dovish bias.

Asia: Watch out for China CPI (Wed), Trade balance (Thur)

Busier week for Aussie as well: NAB business confidence (Tue), Aud Unemployment (Thur), RBA financial stability review (Thur),

Going into the week I remain bullish on the USD given the reversal in Yields. As such, USD strength vs. GBP, AUD, EUR are likely candidates. But Cad, into last week’s close, was also showing strength and as such, CAD strength vs. GBP, AUD, NZD is also on the list. In other markets, Crude Oil continues it’s ascent which might prove more difficult with USD strength. Cac40 & FTSE still look bullish also.


Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan 3.4.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Going into the week, markets might have to digest the worse Caixin PMI data (issued Saturday) from China. There was also an article from the WSJ saying the FED is readying plans to reduce QE after two more hikes in 2017. NFP is the main focus this week; RBA also due; Trump/Xi Jinping meeting expected to be tense.

USD: Plenty of events due: FOMC Minutes (Wed), NFP (Friday), Trump/Xi Jinping meeting (Thur/Fri). Also ISM Manuf. (Mon), Trade data (Tue), ADP (Wed), ISM Non-Manuf (Wed). Five Fed speakers will comment: Dudley (twice), Tarullo, Harker, Williams.

EUR: Manuf. PMI (Mon), Retail Sales (Tue), Services PMI (Wed), Ger Ind. Prod. (Fri). ECB speakes include Coeure and Bundesbank's Beermann & Thiele (Mon), Mario Draghi (Tue), Draghi, Constancio and Coeure (Thur), Draghi & Praet (Fri).

GBP: Manuf. PMI (Mon), Services PMI (Tue), Ind. Prod. & Traed data (Fri). BOE Speakers include
Vlieghe (Wed) & Carney (Fri).

CAD: BOC survey (Mon), Trade Balance (Tue).

Asia: Japanese Tankan for Q1 will be released on Monday.

Busier week for Aussie as well: AUD Retail Sales, Building Approvals, AIG Manuf. (Mon), RBA decision & Trade data (Tue).

Going into the week I remain bearish on the Euro across the board; I like Gbp strength vs. Eur & Nzd in particular; Silver, Dax & Crude all ended last week on the front foot and may continue this week.


Good Luck!