Weekly Game Plan - 29.1.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Reminder: this week is full of event risks including the FOMC meeting, top tier data, and earnings.  Due to the Chinese New Year, Monday is a Holiday in Singapore, China & Hong Kong.

USD:  FOMC meeting  (Wed) to be “boring” until Trump's policies become clearer. The markets will be looking towards the Minutes more than the acutal meeting (no hike is expected). Regarding data, we have NFP (Fri) of course, and before that look out for ISM Manufacturing (Wed), ISM Services (Fri) and Factory Orders (Fri) with less important Incomes, Consumer Spending and PCE deflator (Mon).

EUR: Ger CPI and Confidence measures will be the highlight on Monday, while EU CPI will be released on Tuesday alongside Ger Unemployment and EU GBP. 

GBP: The BOE (Thur) is expected to stand pat, but the Inflation Report should be more interesting and print a bullish picture, underpinned by more upbeat growth and unemployment forecasts. Consumer confidence (Tue) and business surveys – including the PMIs (Wed-Fri), top things off.

CAD:  Externalities will be more influential this week, if we exclude Q4 GDP (Tue) and a speech by Poloz the same day at the University of Alberta. It may carry dovish implications if he repeats that a cut is on the table.

Asia:  The main focus will be on BOJ (Tue) and some analysts say the BOJ might prepare markets for raising it's yield target. Beyond that, we have Chinese PMIs (Tue/Thur).

Once again we can expect a tricky week with all the risk events. Running positions might prove challenging. Into the week, equities remain evidently strong as does Copper. There seems to be value in the Kiwi, especiall vs. Euro, Jpy and Aud but it remains to be seen how much continuation we will see. 


Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan - 22.1.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Reminder: US politics, and in particular Trump's first executive orders, will overshadow economics this week so it might make sense to leave the USD alone this week. Earnings season will also be a major focus over the course of the week as 103 S&P500 firms release 

USD: Trump's first 100 days start this week so be cautious as headlines & policy will affect the USD. Data wise, Q4 GDP will be the main focus (Fri) along with Core PCE (also Fri). 

EUR: Dovish Draghi did little to keep the Euro suppressed. This week we will see PMIs (Tue) and GER IFO (Wed).

GBP: The U.K. Supreme Court delivers its verdict on Article 50 (Tue) and its almost certain that they will support Parliament and approve triggering article 50. This will set the tone for the Pound until GDP (Thur). 

CAD:  The Loonie is still bearing the effects of Bank of Canada's talk of a rate cut. But the market this week will also be focused on any implications of the US pulling out of NAFTA (if they do, and what the tone will be).

Asia:  The main focus will be on the implications of the US pulling out of NAFTA (if they do, and what the tone will be) but don't forget CPI is released from both Australia and New Zealand (Wed) but shouldn't alter either Central Bank's stance.

It's tricky going into the week as Trump's executive orders can throw a wrench in current trends. However, before that happens, Cad weakness is the most evident thing and it's a basket case vs. Gbp, Aud and Euro. 


Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan - 15.1.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Reminder: US markets are closed tomorrow for Martin Luther Kind Day. Instead, on Friday Donald Trump will take the Oath of Office and become the 45th President of the United States.
It is quite a busy week on the data front as well.

USD: Fed Chair Yellen speaks (Wed) and might throw a wrench in the Pro-USD sentiment by cautioning against excessive fiscal stimulus. We also have a good amount of FedSpeak during the week. Data risk will be concentrated on  CPI (Wed), which is expected to cross the 2% line. Also watch industrial production (Wed), Empire manufacturing (Tues), Philly Fed (Thur). Earnings season intensifies but much of the focus will remain on financials.

EUR: The ECB meets this week, but after extending the QE program to December 2017, no change is expected this time round. The sharp improvements in various growth and inflation indicators since then suggest that Draghi may adopt a more upbeat tone 

GBP: UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivers what is being billed as a major policy speech on Tuesday. BoE Governor Carney speaks on Monday on “Policy Issues Affecting the Bank of England.” While Carney may sound somewhat upbeat, the real focus will be on May's speech. We also have important data points: UK CPI (Tues), Employment Data (Wed) and Retail sales (Fri).

CAD:   Enter the BoC (Wed). This will be the full deal including the release of the Monetary Policy Report at the same time and a press conference hosted by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins at 11:15amET. No change is expected and recent data has been quite supportive. Data risk will include manufacturing sales (Thur), retail sales & CPI (Fri). On net, we expect a sizeable jump in headline CPI from 1.2% y/y toward the 2% +/- range. The new core inflation measures, however, are impossible to forecast in advance and, from what I understand, no one within consensus will be attempting to do so. 

Asia:  China releases Q4 GDP growth figures which are not expected to generate much volatility. Alongside that, we also have Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investments.
We also have AUD Employment data, expected to be decent (Thur) whilst NZD has a Dairy Auction (Tue) expected to show weakness.

It's tricky going into the week.  Gbp weakness is most evident against comm-dolls, but any Gbp bets are better left until after May sets the tone for the week. So whilst I do expect changes in the watchlist this week, my initial selection is Nasdaq longs & Copper longs, Gbp shorts vs Aud & Cad.


Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan - 9.1.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Welcome to the first “real” week of trading in 2017. 

USD: Earnings season and Fedspeak (Yellen and a spate of regional Presidents)  will be the main focus. On Friday we will get JP Morgan, BofA, BlackRock, Wells Fargo and PNC Financial’s Q4 and full-year results. But watch out also for the multinationals that might start to feel the pressure of a stronger USD. Beyond that, Retail Sales (also on Friday) will be closely watched. Before that, there are rumours of a “general news conference” from President-Elect Trump (Wed).

EUR: politics will be again on stage, as Italy’s Constitutional Court reviews a request to hold yet another referendum – this time on labour market reforms passed by former PM Renzi. The words “referendum” or “elections”, and “Europe” in the same sentence is beginning to spook market participants.  Beyond this, we’ll see Industrial Production figures, and  German Q4 Economic growth.

GBP: The market will most likely need to factor in PM May’s thoughts from Sunday’s interview. As Sky reports: Theresa May hints that Britain may leave the single market as part of Brexit saying the UK cannot hold on to "bits of membership". November industrial production and construction output (both Wed) will give further indications of the pace of Q4 GDP growth.

CAD:  Canadian data on Friday was quite good. Along with steady Crude Oil Prices, this week the Loonie might remain bid ahead of next week’s BoC meeting.

Asia: Chinese CPI  and PPI (Tue) will be under scrutiny this week, along with import/export data (Fri). 


My initial watchlist for this week includes: Cad longs vs. Jpy, Gbp, Nzd.  Potentially GbpUsd shorts, and longs in indices (Dow, Dax). 

Weekly Game Plan 2.1.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Hello to everyone and welcome to 2017, a new year full of opportunities.

This week’s Game Plan will be somewhat different. Usually the first week of trading into the new year is about “getting sea legs back”: market participants will be slowly testing the waters, and paying attention to emerging themes and the tone of the year. I don’t personally look too deep into the first week of trading, as things usually get more interesting after the first US Non-Farm Payrolls reports is out of the way.

So this week is more about waiting & watching. Also, Monday Jan 2nd is also a Bank Holiday in many countries – including the all-influential UK and US. So we are also dealing with a short week to begin with. So during the week, the game is to take note of the emerging fundamental pieces and observe the market’s tone – from a distance.

US: it’s all about President Elect Trump, and how powerful his first 100 days will be. The Greenback and US equities have a long way to go, if Trump is anything like Reagan. This week we’ll be seeing ISM manufacturing & non-manufacturing, FOMC minutes and NFP. These prints will likely set the stage for the coming week and first move in 2017. The picture still seems rosy for the USD.

EUR: regional PMIs are issued, along with German Unemployment, CPI, Factory Orders and Retail Sales. We also have the ECB minutes. The main themes for Europe in 2017 continue to be political uncertainty & Italy’s Banking Crisis. There is still a downbeat tone for the Euro into 2017.

GBP: The main theme going into 2017 is still Brexit. Will it happen? When will it happen? This week’s data prints include Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI – but sentiment is still downbeat on GBP going into 2017.

CAD: the only comm-doll to have some decent event risk this week with Employment & Trade Balance due, along with Crude Oil Inventories.  The Loonie is also between Scilla & Charybdis in 2017 with Crude Oil production cuts looming and NAFTA trade agreement changes.

There is also Chinese data output this week to stir things up.

It’s a privilege to be back with all our Trading Tribe Members & all other followers!  Keep your trading Simple & Subtle in 2017!