Weekly Game Plan 24 Feb 20

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan

Uncertainty on how the virus will impact global growth will continue to dominate investor sentiment in the week ahead.

China reported a sharp fall in new deaths and cases of the coronavirus on Saturday, but world health officials warned it was too early to make predictions about the outbreak as new infections continued to rise in other countries. The numbers surged elsewhere, though, with outbreaks worsening in South Korea, Iran, Italy and Lebanon.

Themes for the week:

• Coronavirus: traders are watching the spread in the virus around the world. Despite the slowdown in cases in China, around the world (Especially in South Korea and Italy) there has been an explosion in cases. The focus will return to the impact on global growth.
• USD: ISM and Markit PMIs have hit the USD. HOwever, the impact may be temporary.
• Emerging Markets: the IMF is busy helping Argentina, Lebanon, Egypt, Ukraine to fight their financial crisis. The more the USD rises, the worse things will get.

Data in the Week ahead:

• NZD Retail Sales
• GER IFO
• US GDP Q/Q
• CAD GDP m/m

On the Radar:

Going into the week I'm cautiously bearish on equities (Dow, Dax, Eustxx), I remain bullish on Gold especially (Silver to a lesser extent); I remain bearish on Aud, Nzd and Jpy but there isn't really anything strong to place them against...so I'll wait to see what happens to the USD (if it turns back up or not) and in the interim use CAD as second best.

Weekly Game Plan 17 Feb 20

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan

Remember that Canada and the US are out on Monday.
With no data or news from the weekend, it should be a quiet start to the week. Focus will then turn back to the coronavirus, and to the data dump this week, especially from the UK and EU given the Euro's recent drop.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• PBOC Stimulus:  with the Chinese economy slowing down due to the coronavirus, the PBOC will keep stimulus measures very much alive. Expect spending plans from the government as well.
• Recovery of not: as the growth in the coronavirus slows, risk-assets should recover swiftly. Crude Oil has already begun the ascent, and copper should follow. Stocks continue to soar.
• Euro fallout: political chaos in Germany, plus weak data, hedging pressures and falling exports to China have hit the Euro hard. More pain to come this week.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• RBA Minutes
• GER ZEW
• UK Employment Change
• AU Wage Price Index
• UK CPI
• CAD CPI
• FOMC Minutes
• AU Employment
• UK Retail Sales
• EU & UK PMIs
• Cad Retail Sales

On the Radar:

I continue to remain bullish on indices (with a tad of caution since last weeks' performance wasn't  stellar), I'm flipping to bullish on Crude Oil for the first time in weeks; I'm bearish on Euro and Chf vs USD & GBP

Weekly Game Plan 10 Feb 20

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan

Latest batch of economic data, including ISMs and NFP, suggested that US economy is in healthy shape. The US Dollar was the leader last week, and will likely continue to be in the spotlight. The main driver this week will continue to be the coronavirus.  The spread of the virus and the measures taken to contain it will likely be closely monitored by markets, as the short-term impact on global growth might be significant.

Themes for the Week:

• Coronavirus: Recent days have seen an unremitting flow of dire headlines as supply chains from New Zealand to the United States felt the impact of a paralysed China. Toyota and Honda are suspending production in China, Hyundai has halted work in South Korea, airlines are grounding flights and reducing staff, and central banks are easing policy.
• Powell Testimony: the text has already been released. Given Powell and his Fed crew have been consistent in recent messaging that there is no hurry to resume rate cuts (or hikes) and that they see the economy in "a good place" one topic that might generate fireworks in his appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday is "repo".  Other Fed speakers will include San Fran’s Daly and Philly’s Harker (Monday), Daly (again) with St. Louis President Bullard and Minneapolis President Kashkari (Tuesday), Harker again on Thursday, and then Cleveland President Mester on Friday.
• RBNZ, Riksbank decisions, both expected to remain on hold.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• CNY CPI
• UK GDP Q/Q
• RBNZ Decision
• Powell Testimony
• US CPI
• US Retail Sales

On the Radar:

The coronavirus coming in & out of focus is keeping things volatile in risk-assets, but given the favourable macro environment (and the coming stimulus from PBOC), I continue to be bullish on Dow, ASX, China equities and will look at exaggerated fear from the coronavirus as opportunities to buy dips.

The same reasoning goes for copper & crude, which are currently taking on water and are bearish in the short-term, but will likely rebound when concerns fade.

In FX, I like USD strength against almost anything.

Weekly Game Plan 3 Feb 20

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Fear of China’s coronavirus outbreak was the major theme in the global markets last week. As we speak, the number of confirmed cases is close to 12000. While the majority of the infected in China, the virus has spread to at least 23 countries already. The peak should be around Feb 10th, based on latest estimates. Global equities suffered while safe haven flows pushed bond yields sharply lower. Evidently, AUD,NZD,CAD were the weakest in FX while JPY, CHF and GBP were the strongest last week.


This virus is by no means as lethal as SARS, but it spreads much quicker and the economic impact will be more severe. That is the main preoccupation which is sending markets into risk-off mode. We have a decent week ahead with lots of news, a Central Bank decision and NFP to top it off.

Themes for the Week:

• CoronaVirus: Some 60 million people at the centre of the outbreak are living under virtual lockdown. A shock to China's economy this quarter, which then reverberates through global supply chains, is a foregone conclusion. It's just that no one can yet say how deep. Watch the Shanghai exchange when it opens up Monday...
• NFP: Friday's non-farm payroll data will show how the U.S. economy fared in the first month of the new decade. The report is expected to show a pickup from December, with a Reuters poll forecasting 156,000 were added, from 145,000 the month before.
• RBA Decision: no cut is the baseline scenario, but growth projections should be lowered. The market is expecting a dovish statement.
• Volatility is back: traders should get ready for more volatile markets, which is good for trading but seems to always catch the markets off guard.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• Caixin PMI
• US ISM Manuf & NMI
• RBA Decision
• NZD Employment Change
• ECB Lagarde Speech
• AU Retail Sales
• RBA Lowe speaks
• RBA Minutes
• NZD Inflation Expectations
• CAD Employment
• US NFP

On the Radar:
I still have ASX200, Dow, Dax biased short, Crude biased Short, Gold biased long. In FX, CHF,JPY, GBP strength vs. AUD,NZD,CAD weakness.