Weekly Game Plan - 25.9.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

Extremely busy week ahead. To note, there is an informal meeting of OPEC ministers and other oil-exporting countries on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (Mon to Wed). Media reports suggest that the positions of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia are drawing closer to the prospect of accommodation.

USD: focus on the first of 3 presidential debates on Monday 26th at 9 PM EST between Clinton and Trump. The more Trump gains consensus, the weaker the USD should go. Moreover, the closer the race is, the more uncertain it becomes and that spills into USD weakness. Then we have 10 (!) FED official jawboning and pay particular attention to Evans, Harker, Kaplan and Kashkari. Durable goods (Wed) are expected much lower than previous and Personal Spending is also not expected higher. Unclear how much weight the 3rd reading of GDP will have - not much if you ask me.

EUR: Draghi will be on the air frequently during the week and we should watch for any hints at policy easing (or lack thereof). Ger IFO (Mon), Ger CPI (Thur) and EU CPI (Fri) will be watched and further disappointment in inflation is expected.

CAD: Finished last week in bad shape. This week Poloz will be speaking (Monday night) and we will see the first swing at Q3 GDP on Friday.

JPN & CHN: PMI figures could stumble a little (Fri). But interest will also be on the BoJ minutes (Fri).

Going into the week I will be looking for more weakness in Gbp, Nzd & Cad vs. Jpy strength and Eur Resilience. This picture may need re-assessing depending on US output.

Weekly Game Plan - 18.9.16

Weekly Game Plan - 11.9.16

Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities

- US policymakers are quite positive in their assessment of the economy and that is how we closed on Friday. 

- This week remember that on Friday EU leaders meet without the UK.

- Watch out for the OPEC Oil Market Report (Mon), and the IEA Report (Tue).

GBP: BoE is npt expected to change anything this week, but it will be an intense week for the Pound. The labour marketdata (Wed) is expected robust. We also have inflation (Tue) expected higher, although retail sales (Thu) may disappoint based on BRC data. 

USD:  Fedspeak will continue this week  but of more interest is a plethora of data:  retail sales (Thu) and CPI inflation (Fri). The former in particular will be watched for signs that consumer spending will continue to drive growth. 

CNY: industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment (all Tue) will give further indications of whether the slowdown in China’s economy is bottoming out.

AUD: also in focus. Employment data is on tap, along with speeches from a number of Australian policymakers. The market expects a relatively robust gain of 15K new jobs on top of the 27K new jobs generated in July,  but according to the latest PMI readings, employment conditions are actually worse. Earlier in the week we get the regular surveys from NAB on Tuesday and WestPac on Wednesday, while RBA speakers scheduled are Kent on Tuesday, Debelle and Richards on Wednesday.

My initial watchlist for the week is made up of Nasdaq (short), GbpAud (long) and EurAud (Long).

Weekly Game Plan - 4.9.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities

Reminder: Monday is a holiday for the US but given market moving events, the European session should be active.

USD: Monday is a public holiday in the US. Fed speakers Williams (Wed) and Rosengren (Fri) will feature in a relatively quiet week. The ISM non-manufacturing index for August is due on Tuesday.

GBP: services PMI survey (Mon) will potentially be the most influential data point this week. We also have UK industrial production (Wed) and construction output (Fri). More up-to-date evidence for August will come from the British Retail Consortium (Tue). On Wednesday, the Bank of England's Mark Carney, Jon Cunliffe, Kristin Forbes and Ian McCafferty are due to participate in a hearing of the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

EUR: The ECB Meeting (Thur) will attract the most attention but before that, the tone will be set by Services Pmi (Mon), GER Factory Orders (Tue), GER Ind. Prod. (Wed).Recent data has been poor and the market is expecting a dovish bias.

CAD: busy week for the Loonie. We have the BoC decision & Ivey PMI (Wed) along with  unemployment (Fri). Cad has been taking its cue from oil but this week Canadian fundamentals will play a bigger role and unfortunately seem weaker since the last BoC meeting so chances are the central bank will be dovish and could even talk about the need for more easing. 

CNY: China inflation (Fri) is expected to stay subdued around 1.8% y/y, still a long way from the target of 3%. Producer price inflation (PPI) is likely to continue higher as deflation eases further on the back of the increase in commodity prices. Chinese trade data (Thur) are less influential. Caixing PMI (Mon) will also be watched.

AUD: China data will influence AUD but we also have domestic drivers. Job Advertisements (Mon) will take the back seat to teh RBA meeting (Tue) where no change is expected.

Here are the best looking charts going into the week:

Dax Daily

Copper Daily