Weekly Game Plan 28.5.18

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The week will start off slowly with Memorial day in the US and a bank holiday in the UK. In essence, the week will start on Tuesday so don't be too eager to place bets on Monday.

Going into the week, news from Russia/Saudi Arabia will be key for Oil prices. Oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia and Russia mused about increasing supply by a million barrels per day. The other clear driver will be trade war fears, as Trump turned his cannons on other nations by threatening a 25% tariff on auto imports. North Korea is also back on the radar after Trump swiftly cancelled the June 12th leaders’ summit. Italian political uncertainty may continue to pressure the Euro. Last but not least, Fed rate hike expectations ebbed,  as  participants generally agreed that a “gradual approach” to policy normalization is still appropriate.

We also have the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads (Thurs-Sat) where protectionism is likely to take center stage.

On the data front, Non-Farm Payrolls will be the spotlight item on the calendar, but ahead of that we get the Bank of Canada Rates decision, US GDP revisions and CAD GDP.


Going into the week, I will be bearish on Crude Oil and bearish on CAD-EUR-GBP vs. Jpy & Usd. Nasdaq is biased long, but it has been tricky last week. Perhaps it will behave better this week?

Weekly Game Plan 21.5.18

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no market moving developments over the weekend, the Wellington open should be fairly calm outside of NZD Retail Sales (more on that below). Also, remember that Monday will be a Bank holiday in Europe and Canada. The only piece of news worthy of note is the apparent agreement that China will increase it's purchases of US goods, although the 200 Bln figure touted by Trump has not been officially confirmed. However, it would seem like a step forward and defuse some tension.

So while developments in trade policy such as current US-China negotiations and NAFTA negotiations require perpetual monitoring, center stage this week will be taken by FOMC minutes with participants  scrutinising risks to inflation and to a faster or slower pace of rate hikes.

The UK action starts with CPI for April on Wednesday, then moves on to retail sales the next day and ends with possible revisions to Q1 GDP growth on Friday. Don't dismiss Carney's 3 speeches this week either or the inflation hearings on Tuesday.

In Europe, keep an eye out for rogue headlines from the Italian political scene, which has become a focal point and is putting pressure on the Euro.

The only serious data from AsiaPac is NZD Retail Sales, which is a tough call but may effectively disappoint this time round.


Going into the week I maintain a long bias on FTSE, a short bias on EUR, GBP, Jpy vs Aud & Usd.

Weekly Game Plan 14.5.18

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no market moving news issued over the weekend, the start of the week in Wellington should be peaceful. Geopolitical concerns faded last week, as did US inflation expectations. NAFTA, US/China relations, Italian Politics, Iran...there is much to be done still but nobody is holding their breath.

In the coming week, Fedspeak will be influential. On the data front we get US Retail Sales, UK Employment, AU Employment & wages.


Going into the week I am maintaining my long stance on FTSE, and in FX there isn't much clarity at the moment but it does seem that AUD is gaining traction vs. NZD and GBP. I would expect further developments during the week.

Weekly Game Plan 7.5.18

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

There wasn’t any market moving news of note on the weekend – so it should be a quiet start when the Sydney market opens on Monday. Risk assets and equities might continue their ascent this week after NFP challenged the Fed's inflation expectations. However, US CPI could be a game-changer if it comes in stronger than expected. Another risk to the positive market environment comes from US & China not making much headway in trade talks 

Bank of England and RBNZ will be the focal points this week. The market is expecting a dovish tone from Carney, and has more of a curious stance towards RBNZ Governor Orr. There is a risk of hawkish commentary from Orr.

Outside of Central Banks,  the main event will be US CPI. We also get AU Retail Sales, NZD Inflation Expectations, FED's Powell speaking, Cad Employment and a late Friday Speech from Draghi.

 Going into the week I remain bearish on GBP & EUR vs. AUD & CAD. I remain bullish on FTSE for the 4th week in a row and also bullish on Dax. I am bullish on Crude Oil also.