Short Coaching Video Series

I've started to post short coaching videos on the FXRenew blog that I hope will help you mature as traders and individuals.  Here are the links to the first two:

How to Build a Functional Daily Routine

How to Overcome Hard Times in Your Trading

You can expect a video each Saturday. If you enjoy them, feel free to sign up and receive updates.

Have a great weekend!

Weekly Game Plan 16 Sep 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The first thing that will be on everyone's mind tonight at the open will be the attack on the Saudi Arabia Oil fields. This will be bullish for oil, bearish for equities and global growth. In other news, UK PM Boris Johnson said huge progress had been made on resolving the Northern Irish backstop sticking point in Brexit talks.

Themes for the week:

• Crude Oil: the attack on Saudi Arabia will disrupt oil production in the near term. Expect a large gap up in Crude, and other energy prices. Also, higher inflation (from oil prices) might inflate global growth issues (since higher prices are a drag on consumption & savings) and send indices lower. Expect Cad to outperform.
• FED: the market is expecting a 0.25% cut already, so the more important parts will be the dot-plot (will there be enough voters to hypothesize a third cut by the end of 2019?) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (will the Fed be data-dependant - the hawkish case - or will the Fed be preemptive - dovish case?).
• BOJ:  the markets are expecting the BOJ to keep their powder dry, but equally there is a consensus that more easing is due this year. So the BOJ could actually surprize markets on Thursday if it wants to.
• BOE: the Bank of England also meets on Thursday, but it should be a non-event, as the Brexit drama will keep the MPC sidelined.
• Brexit: the situation remains fluid but BoJo spoke about significant progress regarding the Irish backstop, which could further enhance the odds of a deal with the EU.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• China Industrial Production, Retail Sales
• RBA Minutes
• GER ZEW
• UK CPI
• CAD CPI
• FOMC
• NZD GDP
• AU Employment Change
• BOJ
• UK Retail Sales
• BOE
• CAD Retail Sales

On the Radar:

Things will be much different when we approach the markets tomorrow, after the weekend developments. Last week we closed with risk-on, strong equity markets and a weak JPY; instead this week may open with the opposite: risk-off, strong crude oil prices, weak equity markets, strong CAD and stronger Jpy.  The only continuation may be seen in GBP and Euro (on the long side) going into the week.

Weekly Game Plan 9 Sep 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Last week closed with a muted reaction to NFPs and the speech from Powell. The US payroll report was mixed with the headline jobs number coming in slightly worse than expected, while the average hourly earnings was slightly better. Investor sentiment was boosted by news that US/China will talk in October, as well as the move by the PBOC on Friday to cut the RRR by 50 BPs to all banks provided an added boost to EM assets and currencies.

Over the weekend China's exports unexpectedly fell 1% and copper imports also fell in August. So there may be a bit less optimism when markets open tonight.

In the week ahead, we will have more volatility on the Pound, but the big event will be the ECB decision.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• Brexit:  The UK political scene remains fluid and uncertain. The markets are trading as usual: no Brexit/delay = pro Pound; hard Brexit/BoJo having his way = negative Pound. It does seem difficult that a Brexit can be avoided...but in politics anything can happen.
• ECB: The market is expecting the ECB to cut the lending rate by 0.1% while also announcing a resumption of their asset purchase programme (APP) and a tiered reserve system. The question becomes: will Draghi exceed (as usual) or will the governing council remain more conservative?
• US/China trade debate: always relevant, but nothing new is to be expected this week.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• UK GDP
• UK Employment
• ECB Decision
• US CPI
• US Retail Sales

One the Radar:

Last week's closing information was all about risk-on and as such going into the week, Dow & Dax longs look good, as well as Aud & Cad strength vs. Eur and Jpy. GBP will remain headline-driven.