Seasons Greetings

Seasons Greetings!

Another year of trading is coming to an end, and 2018 is knocking on the door. Markets are now into position-squaring mode and in our own trading we should be acting accordingly - reducing activity and not forcing trades. 

It's important not to act like the "miracle clients" in gyms: those people that enroll between April & May and by the end of June expect to have lost 10kgs, put on muscle and be ready to hit the beaches. Any sustainable endeavour is about consistency and longevity - a long run focus.  

I would like to add a few thoughts that stem from the work we've done at FXRenew this year. Our community has continued to grow this year and that's a direct result of feedback and contributions via email and in the Trading Tribe chatroom.

As a result, we have studied, tested and implemented 2 new trading models this year:

• End of Day Signals
• Newsflow Signals

which have been rolling along nicely thus far and which allow for much better diversification from a portfolio perspective. We're had good feedback so far, and it's always rewarding to see appreciation for our efforts. 

I will continue to help traders to the best of my ability in 2018 through our Signal Programs, our Education pathways, our Blog posts, Webinars and random rants!

A few blog posts that you may want to ready/study over the holidays:

Into the Abyss and Back Again: Lessons From Our Maximum Drawdown
A Lesson in Consistency and Profitability Through 36 Trades
What We Learned About Trade Management After 4 Simulations On 200 Trades

Basic Economics for Traders: How Policymakers Influence The Economy
Basic Economics for Traders: Forecasting with Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Trading With The Business Cycle
What Ray Dalio Can Teach Us About Economic Success

Enjoy the Holiday Season, and see you back here for Jan 8th 2018!

Weekly Game Plan 11.12.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With limited news over the weekend, expect a calm start to and eventful week. Given the time of year, markets might consolidate ahead the FOMC. The rate hike has already been discounted so the USD's fate rests upon the statement, dot-plot, forecasts and Yellen presser.  ECB & BOE are also due this week, but analysts do not expect either to deviate from current script. Beyond CB meetings we also see US CPI & Retail Sales; UK CPI, UK employment and Retail Sales; Australian Employment. 

USD:  busy week in the US as the Federal Reserve will meet and release its quarterly economic projections. We will be hosting the last Live Webinar of the year during the event. Beyond that, he most important releases will be: inflation rate; retail trade; industrial output; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; producer prices; the government's budget statement.

GBP: busy week across the pond as well. The Bank of England will also be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Beyond that,  inflation data, retail sales, unemployment and wages will also be watched.

EUR: the ECB will also meet, with markets anticipating no changes. Markit PMIs will be released for the Eurozone, Germany and France.  Germany ZEW Economic sentiment index will likely attract more attention.

AsiaPac: In Japan, the Tankan is the highlight. China, will release retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment. During the weekend, China inflation data for November came in slightly below expectations. In Australia, the most important releases will be the NAB business confidence & employment data.


Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities, bearish but cautious on bullion, bearish on Aud and Jpy.

Weekly Game Plan 4.12.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

If you were confused by the volatility late into Friday's session, know that it was just another round of fake news by ABC. And more importantly, US Senate Republicans narrowly passed tax reform early Saturday by a narrow 51/49 margin. Marketswill likely react positively to the huge corporate tax cut from 35% to 20%, which will increase the attractiveness of US companies. Treasury yields will likely rise in the short-term at least and the USD would likely benefit from rising US yields.

Australian assets might also get a positive inflow as former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce wins by-election in coalition boost. Exit polls show “largest swing to government in the history of Australia by-elections" according to the PM.

RBA and BOC decisions are due and we might get some hawkish comments from the latter. The week ends with Non Farm Payrolls.

USD: In the US, the most important releases will be NFP, trade balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. But the market will be swayed much more by the political developments (tax bill, debt ceiling).

GBP: The UK will issue foreign trade, industrial production, construction output, Markit PMIs. Brexit talks seem to be proceeding well and can always throw a wrench into proceedings.

EUR: in continental Europe, final GDP growth estimates will be released alongside final services PMI for the Eurozone. Germany will release industrial production, factory orders and trade balance.

CAD: the BOC interest rate decision and foreign trade will be in focus after a strong jobs report last Friday.

AsiaPac: China will release figures for trade balance, consumer and producer prices, and Caixin Services PMI. In Australia, the RBA meets but we also have GDP, trade balance,  retail trade, AIG Services Index and AIG Construction Index.


Going into the week I remain bullish on US stocks, bearish on EU stocks, bullish on Crude and bearish on Silver. It seems bullion, equities, bonds and crude are reacting in sync whereas FX remains muted.  In FX space, I favour CAD longs and possibly AUD longs - while the USD still has to show us where it wants to go.

Weekly Game Plan 27.11.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

This week will be all about the US Tax Reform as the Senate returns from recess, and about FOMC expectations as the new Fed Chairman Powell & the exiting Chair Yellen will both speak. Black Friday-Cyber Monday sales will also be under scrutiny in the US. In Europe, the main issue will be coalition talks in Germany. Elsewhere, OPEC will meet, the RBNZ publishes it's FSR and Canada will issue GDP, Employment and Current Account numbers.

USD: the main focus this week will be the tax bill. Without serious progress, the dollar will likely drop further. Keep a lazy eye on Yellen & Powell also. The second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter & the FOMC's preferred inflation measure (PCE prices) are due.

GBP:  nothing much to be aware of beyond Markit Manufacturing PMI. Keep an eye on the Irish government which could collapse ahead of Brexit talks.

EUR: coalition talks in Germany will probably dominate EU news. There is data out (third quarter GDP figures and Manufacturing PMIs will be released for several countries) but EU data hasn't been market moving recently. Markets will also focus on business surveys, CPI  and unemployment.

CAD: Banks release Q4 and full fiscal year earnings starting next week; the Bank of Canada will release its semi-annual Financial System Review; beyond that we will see GDP figures, unemployment and current account data will be the highlights of the week.  Thursday’s OPEC meeting will center around extending production cuts to the end of next year. Whether this will be confirmed at the meeting will drive the energy market tone in the near-term.

AsiaPac: China will release figures for official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Industrial profits and the Caixin manufacturing PMI will also be closely watched. In Australia, housing data and AIG Manufacturing Index will be in the spotlight. In New Zealand we get the RBNZ's  Financial Stability Report - which might be gloomy.


Going into the week I remaain with my bullish bias on US equities & Crude Oil, and I'm also bullish the Euro but with political developments due, things could change quickly. 

Weekly Game Plan 20.11.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Not much news over the weekend and as such, we should expect a calm open in Wellington tonight. Market  participants will be watching the numbers out of  Black Friday and Cyber Monday as they are often taken as harbingers of what the overall holiday shopping period will look like. Fed communications and ongoing tax reform negotiations will be in focus with only Nzd CPI & CAD Retail Sales as Tier 1 data prints.

USD: In the US, the FOMC minutes will certainly be scrutinized but don't expect any surprises. Other data on tap includes existing home sales, durable goods, Michigan consumer sentiment and flash PMI figures.

EUR:  flash PMI readings, Ger IFO and final estimates for GDP growth will be watched but the main focus in Europe this week will be the ECB minutes.

GBP: the Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver the Autumn Budget. Interviewed on BBC, Hammond said "will seek to ease health service measures in a balanced and measured way", "must deliver 300k new homes per year", "Brexit date not set in stone".

CAD: crude oil will continue to drive CAD flows until the Retail Sales print.

AsiaPac:   In Australia, the RBA will publish the minutes from its last meeting.


Going into the week I remain bearish on European indices, Aud & Nzd. I am turning bullish on Gold and Jpy.

Weekly Game Plan 13.11.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start to the week, perhaps with the exception of Crude Oil. The shakeup in Saudi Arabia and the potential escalation with Iran might grab some attention. Conflicts usually intensify when there are economic downturns and with oil prices having fallen below USD 50/bbl for over two years, revenues and trade in the region have decliend significantly and have exposed the lack of proper fiscal management in the region. Keep an eye on this going forward. Interesting week on the data front with influential releases from the US, UK, Australia & Canada, but also with central bank speak.

USD: this week will once again be about tax reform and any details thereof; but also Fedspeak (including the influential CB panel on Tuesday), and inflation, retail sales and industrial production for October. Minor releases are NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

GBP:  inflation, retail sales, unemployment and wages will be under close scrutiny for guidance on Bank of England policy. Cable has been in a range for the past month and a half so logically traders are waiting to see what will break the range. Also watch out for Carney's speeches (Tue, Thurs).

EUR: Draghi's speeches on Tuesday and Friday will probably be the highlights of the week. Regarding data, the second GDP estimate and inflation data for October will be released.

CAD: the Loonie will most likely take it's cue from Crude Oil this week, at least until Canadian Inflation data hits.

AsiaPac: In Japan, markets will focus on Kuroda's speeches (Mon, Tue). Meanwhile in China, important data to be released include retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investments. In Australia, key data to watch for will be NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, employment data and wage price index.


After a dull week, with rangebound moves, the best play in FX is to wait until something inspires some direction. Elsewhere, the clearest thing seems to be Dax & Eurostoxx short bias.

Weekly Game Plan 6.11.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start when Asia opens early Monday and the only significant piece of news that came across my desk is about the purge against Saudi Arabia's political and business elite. This will likely impact Crude Oil. NFP didn’t alter Fed expectations and as such, USD sentiment remains bullish. RBA & RBNZ meetings will be the highlights of the week.

USD: boring week for data. On the political front, Trump's tax plan is -for now - likely to attract capital into US corporations but also likely to pressure the middle class even more. Tax cuts on corporations and elimination of deductibles for households means, to be blunt, buy US stocks.

EUR: mostly minor releases with EU PPI and retail sales while Germany will release industrial production, factory orders and trade data. Elections IN Sicily will be a tell-tail regarding next year's vote in Italy: will we see another country go anti-establishment and attempt to leave the EU?

UK: Industral production is the only thing on the calendar.

AsiaPac: busy week for China with trade balance, consumer and producer prices. In Australia, the RBA meets; across the ditch, the RBNZ meets.


Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities & Crude Oil and bearish on Aussie, Euro and Gbp mainly vs. USD.

Weekly Game Plan 30.10.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no influential developments over the weekend, we should see a quiet start to trading this week. Main focus will be on central banks with the Fed, BOE and BOJ holding policy meetings and the usual NFP-Friday. In other news the market awaits Trump's decision on who will be the next Fed Chair since Yellen is out of the race.

USD: It will be a busy week in the US with FOMC, NFP, wage growth, trade balance, PCE price index, factory orders, construction spending and ISM PMIs.

GBP: the Bank of England will also be deciding on monetary policy and be sure to reserve your spot for our webinar on the day.  We also get the 3 PMI readings during the week.

EUR: continental Europe will see it's third-quarter GDP estimates and flash inflation alongside German retail trade and unemployment.

CAD:  after the BOC's decision last week, we will get speeches by Poloz, employment, trade balance and monthly GDP figures.

AsiaPac: In Japan, the Bank of Japan will meet and release its quarterly outlook report, but no changes in the monetary policy are expected. In Australia, the most important release will be retail sales. New Zealand will have it's quarterly unemployment data. From China we'll get the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. The Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs will also be watched.


Being end of month/start of new month, this week may be challenging for swing strategies and shorter-term models might be more adequate. I remain bullish on Dow; I'm also bullish on Crude Oil; I'm bearish on Euro, Cad & Aussie.

Weekly Game Plan 23.10.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Friday closed with solid USD strength following the Senate approval of a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year – that is seen as clearing the way for Republicans to pursue a tax-cut package. This week the market will be  hoping for further evidence that Republicans will fast-track tax reform. On top of this, speculation on the next Fed Chairman will also be doing the rounds with Powell, Taylor as main candidates.

The political crisis in Spain continues to escalate as Rajoy announced on Saturday he would invoke special constitutional powers to fire the regional government and force a new election to counter the region's move towards independence. Catalan President Puigdemont called Rajoy's moves the "worst attacks against the people of Catalonia" since Spain's military dictatorship. The Euro hasn't responded to the political crisis yet, but capital has started to leave Europe.

PM Abe is en-route to secure his "supermajority" again in Japanese elections. This could provoke a knee-jerk reaction to sell JPY due to one of the cornerstones of “Abenomics” is a weak currency. 

USD: In the US, the most important release will be the advance estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter.

EUR:  the ECB decision is the main focus this week, beyond flash PMI data.

GBP: in the UK, investors will be closely watching the preliminary estimate of GDP growth.

CAD: the Bank of Canada policy decision is the main event, along with the accompanying press conference.

AsiaPac: in Australia, consumer price inflation, producer inflation and foreign trade prices will be in the spotlight. New Zealand releases the trade balance numbers instead.


Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow and bearish on the US10YR bond. In FX, I'm bearish NZD, JPY and CAD vs USD.

Weekly Game Plan 16.10.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Over the weekend, FED's Yellen sketched a bright outlook for the U.S. economy and for inflation prospects.  A bit less enthusiasm from BOJ's Kuroda who believes markets are underestimating geopolitical risk. He also said the BOJ's inflation target is still far from being achieved. 

Meanwhile, in Spain, Rajoy has given Puigdemont until tomorrow to clearly state whether he has declared independence from Spain. Recall that Puigdemont had suspended the independence process, wanting to discuss with Rajoy - but was ignored. It's not Puigdemont that's in a bad position: it's Rajoy because unilaterally ceising control of Catalonia will demonstrate to the whole world that Spain has returned to a dictatorship.

Across the Channel, a powerful cross-party group of MPs is drawing up plans that would make it impossible for Theresa May to allow Britain to crash out of the EU without a deal in 2019. 

USD: dull calendar for the US this week, so focus will likely be elsewhere. In China, the focus will be on China's National Party Congress and GDP growth, inflation, industrial production and retail trade figures. Investors will also be waiting for: UK retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages; Eurozone inflation and trade balance; Australia employment data and results of general election in Japan.

EUR: the main focus in Europe this week will be Ger ZEW. Beyond that, keep an eye on Spanish politics, Brexit talks and banking sector woes. Much is still "background" sentiment for now, but there are many straws that could break the camel's back so to speak.

GBP: investors will be closely watching retail sales, inflation, unemployment and wages in an attempt to guesstimate the next move at the BOE. We will also have a speech by Carney (Wed).

CAD: we will have to wait until Friday to get retail sales and inflation data.

AsiaPac: In China, the focus will be the 19th national congress of the Communist Party and the release of GDP. Other key data include consumer and producer prices, industrial production, retail trade and fixed asset investment.  Japan will come into focus as the general election will take place at the end of the week. In Australia, RBA meeting minutes and employment data will be in the spotlight. NZD will release the Quarterly CPI print.


Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow. I'm now bullish on Aud vs. USD, EUR and potentially GBP depending on the Brexit negotiations. 

Weekly Game Plan 9.10.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Some political news from the weekend that will be in focus when the markets open:

• Tensions in Catalonia are on the rise and political leaders in Barcelona and Madrid remain in a deadlock. The Euro hasn't suffered much pressure yet, but this is a theme to keep tabs on.
• After counting the 17%  “special votes” in NZD, the incumbent National party has lost two seats to Labour and the Greens. Peters (NZ First) has said he will make a decision which party to back to form a coalition government by October 12th. 
• Late on Friday there were jitters about a possible NKorea missle test over the weekend which caused some safe-haven purchasing. Nothing happened as of yet, so the markets are likely to undo those positions.
• UK PM May's position is weakening by the day. Reports say that her Brexit plans have been rejected by France & Germany.

This week will mostly be about FOMC minutes and fedspeak following the surge in average hourly earnings in the latest NFP report. Other market moving events will be Draghi's speech on Thursday and US Retail Sales/CPI duo on Friday.

USD:  the main event will be FOMC minutes, which are expected to provide further details of the central bank's plan to unwind its asset purchases. But watch out for Retail Sales and CPI as well on Friday, which will be interesting to watch as a confirmation of the jump in wages.

EUR: beyond Draghi's speech on Thursday, nothing else is worth mentioning.

GBP: markets will focus on industrial production, construction and trade data.

AsiaPac: China opens for business after being absent for a week and will provide Caixin services PMI, trade and foreign investment.

In Australia, the RBA will publish its Financial Stability Review. NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence are tier 2 events that will offer more insight into how the Australian economy is holding up.


Going into the week I will remain bullish on US equities, bearish on GBP & NZD vs. USD. 

Weekly Game Plan 2.10.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Welcome to the start of Q4 trading. This week will probably be better traded with short-term models as geo-politics and key data will keep volatility high. Markets will need to digest Rajoy's reaction to the referndum result in Catalonia; and markets will also be on the lookout for details of Trump's tax plans. Meanwhile on Saturday,  China's Manuf. PMI data was unambiguously strong as large manufacturers raised production.  The main scheduled market movers in the week ahead will be the RBA decision, ECB Minutes, and NFP.

USD: busy week ahead that culminates with NFP-Friday. Ahead of the big event we get trade balance, factory orders. construction spending, ISM PMIs.

GBP: In the UK we get the PMI figures which will be market-moving. UK PM May is under pressure and is losing confidence as a leader, ahead of the Conservative Party conference this week.

EUR: we need to wait & see how the Euro will digest the referendum outcome in Spain. Main market moving events will be ECB meeting minutes and final PMI data for the Eurozone & Germany. Markets will also focus on the Eurozone unemployment and retail trade; and Germany factory orders.

CAD: couple of decent events for the Loonie as well: employment and trade balance.

AsiaPac: for Japan, analysts are eyeing Tankan's quarterly business condition results. Australia has a busy week with the RBA policy decision,  AIG Services Index and retail sales. Meanwhile in China, markets will be closed to celebrate the National Day Golden Week.


Going into the week, things aren't exactly clear. From a monthly perspective,it would seem that further losses for Cad, Aud & Jpy are possible, against a more positive outlook for the USD. So I'll maintain that bias with caution this week.

Weekly Game Plan 25.9.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

A few political notes going into the week:

• The German elections are under way, and Merkel is almost guaranteed to win. However, she will also need to forma new "grand coalition" in order to form a government and the AfD are poised to take 15% of votes and as such it will be the first time in decades that a far right movement will make it into the bundestag. I wouldn't expect the Euro to be too excited until the actual coalition is formed. Also, the German election campaign has been disappointing to many voters apparently, given the lack of any discussion surrounding major issues like the Euro crisis, disintegration of the EU, refugee crisis, pension crisis, taxation.

• NZD may be vulnerable into the week, due to a hung parliament. The NZ National Party secured 58 seats in the parliament while Labour secured 45.  All Parties fell short of the 61 seats needed to form government in New Zealand’s 120-seat Parliament. New Zealand First will take on the role of kingmaker, as both Labour and the National Party will need his backing to form government. 

• GBP might also see more weakness after PM May’s Florence speech was seen by many as a betrayal of Brexit. A longer transition period and the fact that  Europeans will still be able to come and work in Britain were not welcome.

• Finally, Bloomberg reports Spain Rebuffed in Boosting Control Over Catalonia’s Police.  While sending in troops demonstrates just how much the central government can turn against it's people, we need to remember that the Spanish Constitution does not contemplate independence referendums. So what Catalonia is doing is, actually, anti-constitutional but the government is definitely overreacting.

• Finally, the "war of words" between NoKorea and the US has heated up so keep your squawk active.

USD: busy week in the US.  “Fed-speak” in the week ahead will be influential. Also, markets await the outline of the Republican tax reform plans due Wednesday.  Important data to be released include the final estimate for Q2 GDP growth; personal income and spending; PCE inflation; Chicago PMI and final figures for Q2 corporate profits.


EUR: GER & EU CPI, GER IFO and GER Retail Sales are due.

GBP: we only get the final GDP growth for Q2.

CAD: we will only see the monthly GDP and PPI figures.

AsiaPac: China will release figures for official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Caixin manufacturing PMI will also be closely watched.


Going into the week I remain cautiously bullish on EU equities, bullish on Crude Oil, bearish on Silver & bearish CAD. USD still needs to decide where it wants to go.

Weekly Game Plan 18.9.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no significant news over the weekend, market should be muted into the Wellington open also considering the bank holiday in Japan. The main event this week is the FOMC decision (statement/dot plot/press conference) on Wednesday. The other main focus will be BoJ and UK PM May's speech on Brexit in Florence. Influential macro data out is: UK Retail Sales, NZD GDP, CAD CPI & Retail Sales.

Before going into the usual market mover list, a few words on the political debates heating up:

• Catalan independence vote on October 1st: PM Rajoy is doing everything he can to stop this vote because of course the central government would lose quite a slice of taxes in the case of Catalonia's independence. The only thing left he can do is send in the military, but will it really come to that? Voting intentions are strongly in favour of independence, in search of increased autonomy, a belief that Catalonia would be better off on it's own, and a desire for a new model for running a country.
• German elections: violent protests are rising in Germany against Merkel and this is unusual. Merkel will likely win the vote given her lead in polls over Schulz, but in order to form a government she will definitely need to make back-door deals. The fact is that neither Merkel nor Schulz are confronting the key issues that are at top of mind for the population: lack of integration of immigrants, pension sustainability, social equality.
• New Zealand Elections: a change of government is entirely possible given the flip flops in polls. The main scenario is a coalition between National/NZ First with likely tightening of immigration rules, more focus on retional development, tougher law enforcement and minor/no change to RBNZ policy. The National party has governed since 2008, and the main opposition comes from Labour.

USD:  it's all about FOMC, where the markets are expecting  the Fed to announce it will begin reducing its balance sheet (“quantitative tightening”) in October.

EUR: we get final CPI readings, Ger ZEW and the Flash PMIs. These are not expected to be overly market moving.

GBP:  Carney gives a speech on Monday, Retail Sales are out on Wednesday, and PM May speaks in Florence on Friday.

CAD: the influential data points are CPI & Core Retail Sales on Friday.

AsiaPac: On Tuesday we get RBA minutes; on Thursday we get NZD GDP and the BOJ decision & statement. Friday we get the elections in Nzd.


Going into the week I'll be looking to follow the risk-on theme from last week, with a bullish bias on Dow, Dax & Crude Oil and a bearish view on JPY. I thing GBP has run a bit much so I'll only be looking to pick it up on deep pullbacks.

Weekly Game Plan 11.9.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

On Saturday, China inflation data came in better than expected, despite the recent strength in the Yuan. Higher PPI reflects some underlying strength in the economy and higher commodity prices. No news is good news: NoKorea didn't launch any missles (yet) but the tensions are far from over. US political developments will continue to be a focal point with Congress debating the debt ceiling and (lack of) progress surrounding tax reform. We'll also continue to hear about the impact of Hurricane Irma. Some decent market moving events this week including BoE, Aud Employment and US CPI/Retail Sales.

USD: busy week with CPI, retail sales, industrial production and the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

EUR: Dull week for EU data, perhaps only the ECB speakers this week will attract attention, after the ECB's decision last week.

GBP: the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision. Other important releases include CPI, unemployment rate and wage growth.

CAD: Nothing useful on the Loonie, which may take it's cue from Crude this week and broader USD dynamics.

AsiaPac: In China, analysts are eyeing industrial production, retail trade, fixed asset investment and foreign direct investment.  In Australia, we will get the unemployment rate, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence.


Going into the week I remain bullish on GBP&JPY vs USD&NZD. Interesting action on the Dow...we may be in for a correction.

Weekly Game Plan 4.9.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The only piece of potentially market-moving news over the weekend was North Korea saying it has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. The response from USA, South Korea, China, France was harsh. Trump said "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea".There may be scope for an escalation of these tensions yet. Going onto the usual market moving events due this week, we have the RBA, BOC & ECB rate announcements. Just don't expect much from Monday with the US closed for Labour day.

USD: In the United States, investors will be listening to Fedspeakers in order to better understand the implications of Friday's dismal NFP report. We also get Trade Balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

EUR: The ECB will provide an update on its monetary policy, but we will also see Germany factory orders and industrial production, foreign trade and construction PMI.

GBP: This week we get the 3 big PMI reports (Construction, Services & Manufacturing).

CAD:  All eyes will be on the BoC interest rate decision, but don't forget the other influential data points: Trade Balance, Ivey PMI and unemployment rate.

AsiaPac: In China, participants will be watching external trade, inflation rate, producer prices and Caixin services PMI.  But more action will come from Australia. We get the RBA rates decision, GDP, balance of trade, current account, retail sales. For New Zealand we get the usual GDP auction.


Going into the week, pending any distraction from North Korea, I will remain bullish on Nasdaq, Crude Oil and Gold. I remain bullish on the Loonie and bearish on Nzd.