You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
More delays on the horizon for Trumponomics: Republican Senator Heller on Saturday outright rejected the Senate healthcare bill – making it five Republican Senators who have come out against the bill. Expect a fairly quiet week ahead with little in the way of event risk to push markets around. Watch out for comments out of the “Forum on central banking” (June 26/28 in Portugal). Fed Chair Yellen will also be speaking on Tuesday in London. Crude remains in a tough spot as oil inventories don’t seem to be drawing down, even with cuts from OPEC. US shale activity is rising and making OPEC efforts worthless at the moment.
USD: we’ll see the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a rush to strike a health care agreement, and some Fed speak early in the week.
EUR: Ger IFO, EU CPI & Consumer Readings will be under scrutiny this week, alongside any comments from the Central Bankers' Conference.
GBP: Markets remain weary on GBP. Hawkish BOE rhetoric vs. Brexit consequences make for unclear sentiment at the moment despite a bearish overall backdrop. The Queen's speech has created a deadline (10 days) after which there will be a vote of confidence for the current government. If May loses this vote of confidence, Corbyn would have approximately 2 weeks to form a government (unlikely). The other scenario is yet another round of elections, right when political stability is needed most (Brexit Talks).
CAD: BoC speakers and a pair of quarterly updates to the BoC’s surveys of business and lender attitudes will be the main focus.
NZD: May trade report, BNZ business confidence survey & May building consents this week will be in play after the less dovish RBNZ.
Slim pickings this week. I remain bearish on Crude Oil and bullish on Nzd vs. Gbp, Jpy, Aud.
domenica 25 giugno 2017
domenica 11 giugno 2017
Weekly Game Plan - 12.6.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The focus in the coming week will be on central banks with the Fed, BOE and BOJ policy decisions on tap. A side note on the Nasdaq: tech shares tumbled Friday after a Goldman Sachs report pointed out that Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet may be facing a valuation air pocket. Alongside this, BAML reported that the tech sector is now the most overweight it has ever been and even surpassed the position overloading prior to the “dot com crash” in 2001. The Dow didn't follow suit as bank shares cheered the bill to gut the Dodd-Frank act.
USD: It's all about FOMC (Wed) and we will probably have another dovish hike if the Fed is truly data dependent, given the uncertainty surrounding the Trump trade and inflation expectations. On the same day as the Fed, CPI and retail sales for May are unlikely to influence the meeting’s outcome, but will enhance the market's forward expectations.
EUR: Macron’s looks set to win the first round of parliamentary elections with a landslide and if forecasts are correct, he might obtain one of the biggest majorities in nearly fifty years. This will no doubt be a focal point for the Euro in the coming week alongside Ger ZEW (Tue), employment and ind.prod. (Wed), and inflation data (Fri).
GBP: the GBP will likely continue to jump around, as the market decides just how negative the surprise UK election result is for the UK economy and the GBP. The bear case is more compelling given the political and economic uncertainty. Data will also have an impact in the coming week with UK CPI and PPI (Tue), UK employment (Wed), Retail Sales & BOE (Thur).
AsiaPac: China Retail Sales & Ind. Prod. (Wed) will influence the AUD alongside domestic data prints: NAB Business Survey (Tue) followed by employment data (Thur). RBA's Debelle also speaks this week. New Zealand’s Q1 GDP report (Wed) may post quickened growth. Finally we enter the BOJ (Fri): the debate is whether the central bank is lessening bond purchases in a mini-taper of sorts. CPI wouldn't justify this stance at all.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Dow, bearish on Crude & Gold. I remain bullish on Nzd & Aud vs. GBP, USD and EUR. As usual, updates will be available daily in the Cause & FX note.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The focus in the coming week will be on central banks with the Fed, BOE and BOJ policy decisions on tap. A side note on the Nasdaq: tech shares tumbled Friday after a Goldman Sachs report pointed out that Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet may be facing a valuation air pocket. Alongside this, BAML reported that the tech sector is now the most overweight it has ever been and even surpassed the position overloading prior to the “dot com crash” in 2001. The Dow didn't follow suit as bank shares cheered the bill to gut the Dodd-Frank act.
USD: It's all about FOMC (Wed) and we will probably have another dovish hike if the Fed is truly data dependent, given the uncertainty surrounding the Trump trade and inflation expectations. On the same day as the Fed, CPI and retail sales for May are unlikely to influence the meeting’s outcome, but will enhance the market's forward expectations.
EUR: Macron’s looks set to win the first round of parliamentary elections with a landslide and if forecasts are correct, he might obtain one of the biggest majorities in nearly fifty years. This will no doubt be a focal point for the Euro in the coming week alongside Ger ZEW (Tue), employment and ind.prod. (Wed), and inflation data (Fri).
GBP: the GBP will likely continue to jump around, as the market decides just how negative the surprise UK election result is for the UK economy and the GBP. The bear case is more compelling given the political and economic uncertainty. Data will also have an impact in the coming week with UK CPI and PPI (Tue), UK employment (Wed), Retail Sales & BOE (Thur).
AsiaPac: China Retail Sales & Ind. Prod. (Wed) will influence the AUD alongside domestic data prints: NAB Business Survey (Tue) followed by employment data (Thur). RBA's Debelle also speaks this week. New Zealand’s Q1 GDP report (Wed) may post quickened growth. Finally we enter the BOJ (Fri): the debate is whether the central bank is lessening bond purchases in a mini-taper of sorts. CPI wouldn't justify this stance at all.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Dow, bearish on Crude & Gold. I remain bullish on Nzd & Aud vs. GBP, USD and EUR. As usual, updates will be available daily in the Cause & FX note.
domenica 4 giugno 2017
Weekly Game Plan 5.6.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Saturday night saw another incident in London. My thoughts go to the victims and their families and friends, and my appreciation is with the police, who seem to have reacted incredibly fast. These incidents will most likely reinforce Theresa May's influence, as the Conservative Manifesto is much tougher on immigration. But May is right: enough is enough. These events need to stop.
This week we have a trifecta of risk events - and they're all on Thursday! Core EU markets will be closed Monday for a bank holiday so flows will be tough to read until London comes fully online.
USD: FBI's Comey will testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee (apparently Thursday), and that will take center stage since ISM Services & Factory Orders (Mon) will be the only other event this week.
EUR: it's ECB week. No policy change is expected but Draghi's conference will be closely watched. Business & Consumer data justify a hawkish stance, but inflation is still below hawkish levels. A neutral stance - with no big changes - is most likely what the market is expecting.
UK: It's all about Thursday's Election and the Pound will zig-zag based on polls. We'll be discussing this more in our UK Election webinar tomorrow morning, at 12 Noon CET. Services PMI (Mon) & Manuf. Production (Fri) will have less influence than usual.
CAD: busy week for the Loonie as well, with Ivey PMI (Tue), Building Permits (Wed), New House Price Index (Thur) and Employment (Fri).
AsiaPac: busy week for Australia with RBA (Tue) but also Q1 GDP (Wed), trade balance (Thur) and PMI. China's trade balance (Thur) and Caixin PMI (Mon) will also affect Aussie. Since the last meeting, labor market conditions, inflation, manufacturing and trade conditions deteriorated. Improvements were only seen in retail sales and housing. Expect a dovish RBA, but with no rate adjustment.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities and US bonds; I remain bullish on Gold as well. In FX, NZD & Euro are the leaders, while USD and AUD are the laggards. Watch your step on GBP prior to the elections.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Saturday night saw another incident in London. My thoughts go to the victims and their families and friends, and my appreciation is with the police, who seem to have reacted incredibly fast. These incidents will most likely reinforce Theresa May's influence, as the Conservative Manifesto is much tougher on immigration. But May is right: enough is enough. These events need to stop.
This week we have a trifecta of risk events - and they're all on Thursday! Core EU markets will be closed Monday for a bank holiday so flows will be tough to read until London comes fully online.
USD: FBI's Comey will testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee (apparently Thursday), and that will take center stage since ISM Services & Factory Orders (Mon) will be the only other event this week.
EUR: it's ECB week. No policy change is expected but Draghi's conference will be closely watched. Business & Consumer data justify a hawkish stance, but inflation is still below hawkish levels. A neutral stance - with no big changes - is most likely what the market is expecting.
UK: It's all about Thursday's Election and the Pound will zig-zag based on polls. We'll be discussing this more in our UK Election webinar tomorrow morning, at 12 Noon CET. Services PMI (Mon) & Manuf. Production (Fri) will have less influence than usual.
CAD: busy week for the Loonie as well, with Ivey PMI (Tue), Building Permits (Wed), New House Price Index (Thur) and Employment (Fri).
AsiaPac: busy week for Australia with RBA (Tue) but also Q1 GDP (Wed), trade balance (Thur) and PMI. China's trade balance (Thur) and Caixin PMI (Mon) will also affect Aussie. Since the last meeting, labor market conditions, inflation, manufacturing and trade conditions deteriorated. Improvements were only seen in retail sales and housing. Expect a dovish RBA, but with no rate adjustment.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities and US bonds; I remain bullish on Gold as well. In FX, NZD & Euro are the leaders, while USD and AUD are the laggards. Watch your step on GBP prior to the elections.
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