You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
US, UK & CHN markets will be closed to start the week, so the week effectively starts on Tuesday. Top-tier data and FBI Director James Comey’s hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee (no date set as yet) will keep US developments in the global market spotlight. As usual, nothing came out of the G7 meeting so it should be a dull start to the week.
USD: Key data this week with PCE Deflator & CB Consumer Confidence (Tue), ISM-Manuf. (Thur) and finally Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri).
EUR: Draghi Speaks on Monday, then we have Ger CPI (Tue), EU CPI & Ger Unemployment (Wed), Manuf. PMIs (Thur).
GBP: Manuf. PMI (Thur) and Construction PMI (Fri)
CAD: Q1 GDP (Wed) and Trade Data (Fri)
AsiaPac: Building Approvals (Tue), CAPEX & Retail Sales (Thur) are the key data points for AUD. NZD has the RBNZ Financial Stability Report (Tue) & ANZ Business Conference (Wed). China has PMIs (Wed) and Caixin PMI (Thur).
Given the holiday on Monday and NFP on Friday, alongside Comey's potential testimony, this week will be tricky. Until new information is released, we need to stick to the trendy instruments as they closed on Friday. As such, I remain bullish on Nasdaq & SP500, and on the FTSE. I remain bullish on bullion. In FX, GBPNZD & AUDNZD short are decent bets on NZD strength, whereas GBPCAD & EURGBP are alternative plays on GBP weakness. As usual, updates will follow in the morning Cause & FX sentiment report (subscribers only).
domenica 28 maggio 2017
domenica 21 maggio 2017
Weekly Game Plan - 22.5.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Political risks may once again be at the forefront of traders minds this week. On Wednesday, former FBI Director James Comey has been invited to testify by House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz on the same day that the FBI is to provide requested documents regarding Comey–Trump communications. Also Oil markets will be keeping a keen eye on the OPEC meeting Thursday.
USD: enter the FED Minutes from May 3rd. In particular, market participants will seek more explicit indications of a June hike, the degree of confidence in infltion views, the weight of the Q1 data soft patch and the reinvestment reduction pace. Beyond this we have a decent amount of FedSpeak: Harker, Evans, Kashkari (speaks three times), Kaplan (voting) andBullard (nonvoting). Regarding data prints, we only have some housing data (Tue, Wed) to look out for.
EUR: continued strength expected in the near term with USD weakness. On the calendar we have Eurogroup meetings (Mon), PMIs & Ger Ifo (Tue), Draghi speech (Wed), Bank Holiday (Fr/Ger/Ch) on Thursday.
GBP: Inflation report hearings (Tue) & Second GDP estimate are the only things on the docket for this week.
CAD: Local market closed Monday for Victoria Day. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement (Wed), along with bank earnings, will get the most attention. But also, be aware of the OPEC meeting on the 25th. Cuts to production should be extended, maintaining Crude (and thus the Loonie) supported.
AsiaPac: no major economic reports scheduled, but RBA's Debelle speaks a few times. New Zealand releases its trade balance report.
Going into the week I remain bullish on Euro, Jpy, Cad vs. USD. I also remain bullish on Crude Oil & FTSE.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Political risks may once again be at the forefront of traders minds this week. On Wednesday, former FBI Director James Comey has been invited to testify by House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz on the same day that the FBI is to provide requested documents regarding Comey–Trump communications. Also Oil markets will be keeping a keen eye on the OPEC meeting Thursday.
USD: enter the FED Minutes from May 3rd. In particular, market participants will seek more explicit indications of a June hike, the degree of confidence in infltion views, the weight of the Q1 data soft patch and the reinvestment reduction pace. Beyond this we have a decent amount of FedSpeak: Harker, Evans, Kashkari (speaks three times), Kaplan (voting) andBullard (nonvoting). Regarding data prints, we only have some housing data (Tue, Wed) to look out for.
EUR: continued strength expected in the near term with USD weakness. On the calendar we have Eurogroup meetings (Mon), PMIs & Ger Ifo (Tue), Draghi speech (Wed), Bank Holiday (Fr/Ger/Ch) on Thursday.
GBP: Inflation report hearings (Tue) & Second GDP estimate are the only things on the docket for this week.
CAD: Local market closed Monday for Victoria Day. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement (Wed), along with bank earnings, will get the most attention. But also, be aware of the OPEC meeting on the 25th. Cuts to production should be extended, maintaining Crude (and thus the Loonie) supported.
AsiaPac: no major economic reports scheduled, but RBA's Debelle speaks a few times. New Zealand releases its trade balance report.
Going into the week I remain bullish on Euro, Jpy, Cad vs. USD. I also remain bullish on Crude Oil & FTSE.
domenica 14 maggio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 15.5.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Sentiment in France & Germany is quite positive regarding Macron as French President. However, the Euro has yet to react and the USD remained buoyant based on hawkish fedspeak, despite disappointing data. US Politics will be in focus this week, as Trump's decision to fire FBI Chief Comey gives opposition excuses to delay reforms.
USD: fairly quiet week for US data. NY Fed Manuf. and NAHB (Mon), Housing Market Index; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Ind. Prod. (Tue), Philly Fed Index (Thur).
EUR: a few key releases this week with EZ Q1 Flash GDP and Ger ZEW (Tue); EU CPI (Wed); EU Current Account (Fri).
GBP: watch out for CPI (Tue), key employment data (Wed), Retail Sales (Thur).
CAD: Manuf. Sales & Crude Oil Inventories (Wed), CPI & Retail Sales (Fri).
Asia: China Ind. Prod, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales (all Mon), House Price data (Thur). Australia will see Home Loans (Mon), RBA's minutes (Tue), Wage Prices (Wed), Unemployment (Thur).
Finally, NZD starts off the week with Retail Sales, then has GDT auction (Tue) and PPI ( Wed).
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Nasdaq and bearish on Cad & Nzd. I have a feeling dynamics will change during the week, since the established trends are pausing. Patience will be key.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Sentiment in France & Germany is quite positive regarding Macron as French President. However, the Euro has yet to react and the USD remained buoyant based on hawkish fedspeak, despite disappointing data. US Politics will be in focus this week, as Trump's decision to fire FBI Chief Comey gives opposition excuses to delay reforms.
USD: fairly quiet week for US data. NY Fed Manuf. and NAHB (Mon), Housing Market Index; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Ind. Prod. (Tue), Philly Fed Index (Thur).
EUR: a few key releases this week with EZ Q1 Flash GDP and Ger ZEW (Tue); EU CPI (Wed); EU Current Account (Fri).
GBP: watch out for CPI (Tue), key employment data (Wed), Retail Sales (Thur).
CAD: Manuf. Sales & Crude Oil Inventories (Wed), CPI & Retail Sales (Fri).
Asia: China Ind. Prod, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales (all Mon), House Price data (Thur). Australia will see Home Loans (Mon), RBA's minutes (Tue), Wage Prices (Wed), Unemployment (Thur).
Finally, NZD starts off the week with Retail Sales, then has GDT auction (Tue) and PPI ( Wed).
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Nasdaq and bearish on Cad & Nzd. I have a feeling dynamics will change during the week, since the established trends are pausing. Patience will be key.
Good Luck!
domenica 7 maggio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 8.5.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Macron has secured the victory of the French Presidential elections. This week will be initially dominated by the result, which will be positive for risk-assets and for the Euro FX. We also have G7 starting at the end of the week.
USD: last week closed with decent Jobs data, but this week will be less eventful. CPI ,US Retail Sales, Business inventories and Univ of Mich consumer sentiment are all released on Friday. FOMC's Kaplan (Tue) and Dudley (Thur) the only highlights earlier in the week. FOMC'S Evans & Harker wrap up the week.
EUR: bit more action compared to US. Ger Industrial Orders (Mon), Ger IP and trade data (Tue), Draghi on the wires (Wed), Ger Q1 flash GDP and EZ IP (Fri).
GBP: all data is released on Super Thursday. UK IP & trade data along with BOE policy decision and Inflation Report.
CAD: Crude Oil will dictate the Loonie's movements in the absence of any influential data.
Asia: fairly busy week for China with Trade data (Mon), PPI and CPI (Wed).
Australian data in the week ahead includes Building Approvals (Mon), NAB Business Survey and Retail Sales (Tue)
Nzd is also in for a big week with RBNZ (Wed) with ensuing presser by Wheeler. On Friday we'll have NZ Manuf. Index.
Going into the week I remain bullish on global equities, bearish Silver & Gold, bullish Eur & GBP, bearish Jpy. NZD will also be interesting to watch, in anticipation of the RBNZ.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Macron has secured the victory of the French Presidential elections. This week will be initially dominated by the result, which will be positive for risk-assets and for the Euro FX. We also have G7 starting at the end of the week.
USD: last week closed with decent Jobs data, but this week will be less eventful. CPI ,US Retail Sales, Business inventories and Univ of Mich consumer sentiment are all released on Friday. FOMC's Kaplan (Tue) and Dudley (Thur) the only highlights earlier in the week. FOMC'S Evans & Harker wrap up the week.
EUR: bit more action compared to US. Ger Industrial Orders (Mon), Ger IP and trade data (Tue), Draghi on the wires (Wed), Ger Q1 flash GDP and EZ IP (Fri).
GBP: all data is released on Super Thursday. UK IP & trade data along with BOE policy decision and Inflation Report.
CAD: Crude Oil will dictate the Loonie's movements in the absence of any influential data.
Asia: fairly busy week for China with Trade data (Mon), PPI and CPI (Wed).
Australian data in the week ahead includes Building Approvals (Mon), NAB Business Survey and Retail Sales (Tue)
Nzd is also in for a big week with RBNZ (Wed) with ensuing presser by Wheeler. On Friday we'll have NZ Manuf. Index.
Going into the week I remain bullish on global equities, bearish Silver & Gold, bullish Eur & GBP, bearish Jpy. NZD will also be interesting to watch, in anticipation of the RBNZ.
Good Luck!
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