Seasons Greetings

Seasons Greetings!

Another year of trading is coming to an end, and 2018 is knocking on the door. Markets are now into position-squaring mode and in our own trading we should be acting accordingly - reducing activity and not forcing trades. 

It's important not to act like the "miracle clients" in gyms: those people that enroll between April & May and by the end of June expect to have lost 10kgs, put on muscle and be ready to hit the beaches. Any sustainable endeavour is about consistency and longevity - a long run focus.  

I would like to add a few thoughts that stem from the work we've done at FXRenew this year. Our community has continued to grow this year and that's a direct result of feedback and contributions via email and in the Trading Tribe chatroom.

As a result, we have studied, tested and implemented 2 new trading models this year:

• End of Day Signals
• Newsflow Signals

which have been rolling along nicely thus far and which allow for much better diversification from a portfolio perspective. We're had good feedback so far, and it's always rewarding to see appreciation for our efforts. 

I will continue to help traders to the best of my ability in 2018 through our Signal Programs, our Education pathways, our Blog posts, Webinars and random rants!

A few blog posts that you may want to ready/study over the holidays:

Into the Abyss and Back Again: Lessons From Our Maximum Drawdown
A Lesson in Consistency and Profitability Through 36 Trades
What We Learned About Trade Management After 4 Simulations On 200 Trades

Basic Economics for Traders: How Policymakers Influence The Economy
Basic Economics for Traders: Forecasting with Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Trading With The Business Cycle
What Ray Dalio Can Teach Us About Economic Success

Enjoy the Holiday Season, and see you back here for Jan 8th 2018!

Weekly Game Plan 11.12.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With limited news over the weekend, expect a calm start to and eventful week. Given the time of year, markets might consolidate ahead the FOMC. The rate hike has already been discounted so the USD's fate rests upon the statement, dot-plot, forecasts and Yellen presser.  ECB & BOE are also due this week, but analysts do not expect either to deviate from current script. Beyond CB meetings we also see US CPI & Retail Sales; UK CPI, UK employment and Retail Sales; Australian Employment. 

USD:  busy week in the US as the Federal Reserve will meet and release its quarterly economic projections. We will be hosting the last Live Webinar of the year during the event. Beyond that, he most important releases will be: inflation rate; retail trade; industrial output; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; producer prices; the government's budget statement.

GBP: busy week across the pond as well. The Bank of England will also be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Beyond that,  inflation data, retail sales, unemployment and wages will also be watched.

EUR: the ECB will also meet, with markets anticipating no changes. Markit PMIs will be released for the Eurozone, Germany and France.  Germany ZEW Economic sentiment index will likely attract more attention.

AsiaPac: In Japan, the Tankan is the highlight. China, will release retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment. During the weekend, China inflation data for November came in slightly below expectations. In Australia, the most important releases will be the NAB business confidence & employment data.


Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities, bearish but cautious on bullion, bearish on Aud and Jpy.

Weekly Game Plan 4.12.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

If you were confused by the volatility late into Friday's session, know that it was just another round of fake news by ABC. And more importantly, US Senate Republicans narrowly passed tax reform early Saturday by a narrow 51/49 margin. Marketswill likely react positively to the huge corporate tax cut from 35% to 20%, which will increase the attractiveness of US companies. Treasury yields will likely rise in the short-term at least and the USD would likely benefit from rising US yields.

Australian assets might also get a positive inflow as former deputy PM Barnaby Joyce wins by-election in coalition boost. Exit polls show “largest swing to government in the history of Australia by-elections" according to the PM.

RBA and BOC decisions are due and we might get some hawkish comments from the latter. The week ends with Non Farm Payrolls.

USD: In the US, the most important releases will be NFP, trade balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. But the market will be swayed much more by the political developments (tax bill, debt ceiling).

GBP: The UK will issue foreign trade, industrial production, construction output, Markit PMIs. Brexit talks seem to be proceeding well and can always throw a wrench into proceedings.

EUR: in continental Europe, final GDP growth estimates will be released alongside final services PMI for the Eurozone. Germany will release industrial production, factory orders and trade balance.

CAD: the BOC interest rate decision and foreign trade will be in focus after a strong jobs report last Friday.

AsiaPac: China will release figures for trade balance, consumer and producer prices, and Caixin Services PMI. In Australia, the RBA meets but we also have GDP, trade balance,  retail trade, AIG Services Index and AIG Construction Index.


Going into the week I remain bullish on US stocks, bearish on EU stocks, bullish on Crude and bearish on Silver. It seems bullion, equities, bonds and crude are reacting in sync whereas FX remains muted.  In FX space, I favour CAD longs and possibly AUD longs - while the USD still has to show us where it wants to go.