Weekly Game Plan - 28.3.16

Themes for the Week and potential opportunities


- Most markets closed Monday, flows to return Tuesday. Also end of Q1 and Japanese Fiscal Year End (watch for repatriation flows). Friday is April Fool's day...watch for pranks!

- US data brings halt to dollar run as last week’s hawkish Fedspeak now a memory. On Friday, NFP is expected to print above 200k but don't forget average hourly earnings, expected to remain firm at 2.2%. Eyes will be on Yellen's speech tomorrow at the NY Economic Club (Tue, 16.30 GMT) and then on Evans (Wed) &  Dudley (Thur).


- In the UK, we'll see the BoE minutes (Tue), manufacturing PMI and GfK consumer confidence (Thur), along with Carney speaking in Tokyo (Thur) and GDP (Thur).

- Eurozone CPI will be watched for signs of a bottom (Thur) and German CPI will be the tell-tail (Wed).

- Risk appetite will be swayed by China PMI surveys (Fri) which  might show improvements, despite worse expectations for Japan Tankan index (Fri).

 - Downunder,  NZD has its global dairy auction tomorrow and we also have Australian  PMIs.

AudJpy, CadJpy, EurJpy seem like the best looking movers so far given the weak Jpy and weak Usd but we'll get a better read tomorrow (Tuesday) as London gets going.

Good Luck!

Weekly Game Plan - 20.3.16

Themes for the week and potential opportunites

- Remember the Holiday on Good Friday and Easter Monday

- Central Bank efforts sustain risk-assets

- Dollar and US rate hike expectations fall after FOMC; the FedSpeak this week will most likely shed more light on the recent developments. We'll also see US durable goods  (Thu) which are expected to drop, and US GDP 3rd estimate (Fri) expected to remain stable.

- Super Tuesday for the Eurozone: activity indicators will be watched for signs of policy-assisted improvement. On the same day we will have German IFO &ZEW (Tue), Eurozone ‘flash’ PMIs (Tue) and expectations are for a modest increase is expected in all indicators.


- In the UK, CPI (Tue) is expected to grind higher whereas  Public finances (Tue) will mostly go unwatched; Retail sales (Thu) instead are poised for a drop.

- Eyes on Jpy crosses: we are nearing intervention territory and the BoJ was already "checking prices" last Thursday.

I continue to favour longs on US indices & Crude, and also will watch CadJpy longs for the same reason. USD weakness continues to be the dominant theme in FX space, so UsdCad shorts/AudUsd longs continue to be in favour. A short term dip into EurUsd and GbpUsd might also be viable ahead of key data this week.

Weekly Game Plan - 13.3.2016

Themes for the week and best looking opportunities

- ECB measures to keep a positive tone in EU equities and credit markets.

- Chinese data might spark another round of risk-aversion after disappointing retail sales and industrial production on Saturday.  PBoC Governor Zhou might balance the bad news however, after saying that the PBoC will maintain a prudent monetary policy and that the Yuan is getting back to normal. 

- FOMC (Wed) to stand pat. Retail Sales (Tue) will build up expectations for the event. To note, recent US data has been buoyant and gives Yellen excuses to keep a positive tone during her Presser. This is without a doubt the main event of the week even though a rate hike is not likely.

- UK Chancellor George Osborne (Wed) to deliver Budget Statement amidst softer economic conditions. On the same day we will also get the Labour Market report, which is however expected to show moderate growth in both employment and wages. Then we have the BoE (Thu) which will certainly leave rates unchanged, but should acknowledge the recent drop in economic activity.

- Bank of Japan (Tue) and Swiss National Bank (Thu) are expected to keep  rates unchanged at -0.1% and -0.75%, respectively. 

- OPEC Monthly Report (Mon) will also be worth watching since the IEA has recently said "prices may have bottomed out" and an output freeze is still in the cards.

Going into the week I continue to privilege Long Aud and Cad positions vs. Jpy, Gbp and Usd. 

Weekly Game Plan - 6.3.2016

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

- Risk still bought after better US data, higher oil prices and potential future policy easing. 

- ECB (Thur) is expected to ease this week: market participants are expecting a deposit rate by at least 10bps to -0.4% and a potential expantion of its asset purchase programme. Leading up to the event, we have Ger factory orders (Mon) & industrial production (Tue).

- China to announce 2016 GDP target and ramp up government spending. Market participants want to see conditions for a stable yuan and some kind of formal plan for the currency’s exchange rate against a basket of currencies.

- BoE’s Carney (Tue) will testify in front of the TSC on the pros and cons of the UK’s EU membership, which has the potential to impact markets.  

- In the US Fed’s Fischer and Brainard are scheduled to speak (Mon) and markets will be looking for their reaction to the more recent positive economic data.

- BoC and RBNZ rate decisions (both Wed). Nobody expects BoC to change it's stance ahead of  the Federal Budget on March 22nd. As for the RBNZ,  the market is expecting no cut in March but a

substantially increased chance of cuts as the year progresses.

I seek continued strength in Crude and in the comm-dolls in the coming week. UsdCad shorts, GbpNzd, EurAud shorts and potentially AudUsd longs look like the best places to get seated into before the main events of the week.