You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Going into the week, take note of some significant comments from Fed voter Dudley. Some of the previously dovish Fed voters were started to become concerned about falling behind the inflation curve (positive for USD if market obliges). The GBP will likely remain slightly pressured ahead of Wednesday when UK PM May triggers article 50. Expect a buy rumour/sell fact sort of reaction. Finally, recall that conditions might be tricky as we are approaching Quarter end & month end.
USD: Plenty of key US data this week with CB Consumer Confidence (Tue), Final GDP (Thur), PCE & Chicago PMI (Fri). A number of Federal Reserve Presidents are also due to speak so traders need to pay attention to any market moving comments.
EUR: Fairly quiet week for EZ data with only Ger IFO (Mon), Ger CPI (Thur), Ger Retail Sales & Unemployment (Fri), EU CPI (Fri).
GBP: U.K. Prime Minister May expected to trigger Article 50 in the next few days, formalizing the U.K.'s divorce from the European Union. UK data in the week ahead includes Final GDP, Nationwide House Prices and Current Account – all out on Friday.
CAD: Strong retail sales on Friday will likely improve the BoC’s outlook. GDP is the only influential data print (Fri) along with a speech from BoC’s Poloz on Tuesday.
Asia: Japanese data in the week ahead includes Retail Sales (Wed) then CPI, unemployment, IP, Construction Orders and Housing Starts (all on Fri).
China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI will be released on Friday.
I expect things to be shaken up, but for now at least I remain bearish on comm-dolls vs. Eur, Gbp, Jpy. Dax is the best looking index.
Good Luck!
domenica 26 marzo 2017
domenica 19 marzo 2017
Weekly Game Plan 20.3.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
After two busy weeks, we should now have a relatively quiet one. G-20 developments were highly expected and should not be market moving. Expect less action than usual until the London cash open on Monday since there is a Bank holiday in Japan.
USD: Speeches are the highlight for the USD, with no data output due. Fomc's Evans (Mon), Pres. Trump (Tue), FOMC'S Dudley (Tue), Yellen & Kashkari (Thur), Kaplan (Fri)
EUR: Slightly more on tap in the EU: a speech from Weidmann & wage growth (Mon), Current Account (Wed), Consumer Confidence (Thur) and finally on Friday there will be the closely eyed Flash PMI surveys.
GBP: UK inflation will be in focus on Tuesday when Feb CPI, PPI and RPI will be released. Other key UK data next week includes Thursday’s Retail Sales. However, PM May will be “Brexiting” anytime in the next 2 weeks so be on guard for that.
CAD: More of an interesting week for the Loonie with Wholesale sales (Mon), Retail Sales (Tue), BoC's Schembri speech (Wed), and CPI (Fri).
Asia: Sentiment has improved in Asia and this will potentially assist the AUD. In Australia this week look out for the RBA Minutes (Tue) along with speeches from Deputy Governor Guy Debelle and Assistant Governor Luci Ellis.
For the Kiwi, the RBNZ meets (Wed) and although no change is expected for the OCR, we might see some effort to talk down the Nzd. The Global Dairy Auction (Tue) and February international trade numbers (Thur) are also due.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Aud vs. Usd, Nzd, Cad. I remain bearish on Nzd vs. Jpy. I remain bearish on Cad vs. Gbp & Jpy. In other markets, Eurostoxx still looks strong while Crude is still weak and Copper is moving back up the ladder.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
After two busy weeks, we should now have a relatively quiet one. G-20 developments were highly expected and should not be market moving. Expect less action than usual until the London cash open on Monday since there is a Bank holiday in Japan.
USD: Speeches are the highlight for the USD, with no data output due. Fomc's Evans (Mon), Pres. Trump (Tue), FOMC'S Dudley (Tue), Yellen & Kashkari (Thur), Kaplan (Fri)
EUR: Slightly more on tap in the EU: a speech from Weidmann & wage growth (Mon), Current Account (Wed), Consumer Confidence (Thur) and finally on Friday there will be the closely eyed Flash PMI surveys.
GBP: UK inflation will be in focus on Tuesday when Feb CPI, PPI and RPI will be released. Other key UK data next week includes Thursday’s Retail Sales. However, PM May will be “Brexiting” anytime in the next 2 weeks so be on guard for that.
CAD: More of an interesting week for the Loonie with Wholesale sales (Mon), Retail Sales (Tue), BoC's Schembri speech (Wed), and CPI (Fri).
Asia: Sentiment has improved in Asia and this will potentially assist the AUD. In Australia this week look out for the RBA Minutes (Tue) along with speeches from Deputy Governor Guy Debelle and Assistant Governor Luci Ellis.
For the Kiwi, the RBNZ meets (Wed) and although no change is expected for the OCR, we might see some effort to talk down the Nzd. The Global Dairy Auction (Tue) and February international trade numbers (Thur) are also due.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Aud vs. Usd, Nzd, Cad. I remain bearish on Nzd vs. Jpy. I remain bearish on Cad vs. Gbp & Jpy. In other markets, Eurostoxx still looks strong while Crude is still weak and Copper is moving back up the ladder.
Good Luck!
domenica 12 marzo 2017
Weekly Game Plan 13.3.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
FOMC, BOE, BOJ, Dutch elections, Article-50, G20 all condensed in a very busy week
The G-20 meeting (from Fri) takes place in Germany. New US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be in attendance. The meeting will be watched for any changes to the draft communique which rejects protectionism and commits to refraining from competitive devaluations. Earlier in the week (Tue), US President Trump will host German Chancellor Merkel at the White House.
USD: It’s clear that the FED will raise by 0.25% (Wed) but the USD will take cue from forward guidance: is June in the cards or not? So far the market is not convinced of a June hike and unless Yellen appears overly hawkish, the USD might deflate somewhat. Beyond the FED we have the debt ceiling resolution to be aware of, and data: CPI (Wed), Retail Sales (Wed), Building Permits & Philly Fed (Thur).
EUR: Dutch elections (Wed) might not be that influential. Rutte (moderate candidate) is the top contender with Wilders (anti-EU) following in the polls. However, the winning candidate will face a highly fractured Dutch parliament so passing legislation, in any case, will prove slow and as such, the markets have little interest.
Draghi will be on the wires Monday afternoon and may provide further clarity after his hawkish Q&A last week. Ger ZEW (Tue) also due.
GBP: Employment data (Wed) might confirm the BOE’s comments on more subdued wage growth. BOE (Thur) to keep policy unchanged.
CAD: The Loonie will most likely take it’s cue from external developments, such as the recent drop in Crude oil & the FOMC.
Asia: Chinese retail sales and industrial production (Tue) are expected to show momentum continuing in early 2017.
BOJ to remain still as well. In Japan, core inflation remains close to zero, which means the BoJ is unlikely to step back from its ultra-accommodative policy.
In Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Bullock will speak on Tuesday morning, and Employment data is due on Thursday.
New Zealand will see Current Account data (Tue), GDP (Wed) and Business Manufacturing data (Thur).
Going into the week, I remain bearish on NZD vs Eur & Aud. I remain bearish on GBP vs. Eur & USD. I remain bearish on Cad vs. Euro. Crude Oil remains a sell on rallies, as do Gold & Silver.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
FOMC, BOE, BOJ, Dutch elections, Article-50, G20 all condensed in a very busy week
The G-20 meeting (from Fri) takes place in Germany. New US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be in attendance. The meeting will be watched for any changes to the draft communique which rejects protectionism and commits to refraining from competitive devaluations. Earlier in the week (Tue), US President Trump will host German Chancellor Merkel at the White House.
USD: It’s clear that the FED will raise by 0.25% (Wed) but the USD will take cue from forward guidance: is June in the cards or not? So far the market is not convinced of a June hike and unless Yellen appears overly hawkish, the USD might deflate somewhat. Beyond the FED we have the debt ceiling resolution to be aware of, and data: CPI (Wed), Retail Sales (Wed), Building Permits & Philly Fed (Thur).
EUR: Dutch elections (Wed) might not be that influential. Rutte (moderate candidate) is the top contender with Wilders (anti-EU) following in the polls. However, the winning candidate will face a highly fractured Dutch parliament so passing legislation, in any case, will prove slow and as such, the markets have little interest.
Draghi will be on the wires Monday afternoon and may provide further clarity after his hawkish Q&A last week. Ger ZEW (Tue) also due.
GBP: Employment data (Wed) might confirm the BOE’s comments on more subdued wage growth. BOE (Thur) to keep policy unchanged.
CAD: The Loonie will most likely take it’s cue from external developments, such as the recent drop in Crude oil & the FOMC.
Asia: Chinese retail sales and industrial production (Tue) are expected to show momentum continuing in early 2017.
BOJ to remain still as well. In Japan, core inflation remains close to zero, which means the BoJ is unlikely to step back from its ultra-accommodative policy.
In Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Bullock will speak on Tuesday morning, and Employment data is due on Thursday.
New Zealand will see Current Account data (Tue), GDP (Wed) and Business Manufacturing data (Thur).
Going into the week, I remain bearish on NZD vs Eur & Aud. I remain bearish on GBP vs. Eur & USD. I remain bearish on Cad vs. Euro. Crude Oil remains a sell on rallies, as do Gold & Silver.
Good Luck!
domenica 5 marzo 2017
Weekly Game Plan 6.3.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
ECB, RBA & NFP the highlights of an otherwise calm week.
USD: We are in Fed blackout mode now ahead of the March 15 FOMC decision – with the markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike. In this light, unless NFP is dismal, the markets will not care all that much. On the other hand, good numbers will seal the deal. Nothing else on the calendar can challenge the bullish USD view.
EUR: Enter the ECB. Given recent data output, upward revisions to growth forecasts are likely and a turn toward a more neutral if not slightly hawkish tone from Draghi is logical. However, we might very well get “uncertainty” mentioned, due to the French & Dutch elections. Obviously no change to policy is expected.
GBP: Not too much to look out for. MPC's Hogg speaks (Mon), UK Chancellor Hammond will deliver his first spring Budget (Wed), Manuf. PMI is out (Fri).
CAD: Soft wage gains, export weakness, and a bubble in the housing market have kept the BoC cautious. We get updates on these sectors this week: Trade Balance & Ivey PMI(Tue), Housing Starts/Building permits (Wed), Employment (Fri).
Asia: China reports Trade data (Wed) and CPI (Thurs) which can influence global risk appetite (via indices & Jpy pairs) as well as AsiaPac FX (Aussie, Kiwi).
The RBA also meets (Tue) but Retail Sales (Mon) will make things interesting leading into the event. Governor Lowe was relatively hawkish last time, but recent data has been mixed with a downwards tilt. With this new information, the RBA's tone may be more cautious. Retail Sales will play into this picture.
Nzd only has the GDT Auction on Tuesday, around 3 PM CET.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Indices & AudNzd. Euro longs are also back in vogue, against everything except USD. Cad remains weak-ish vs. Usd also.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
ECB, RBA & NFP the highlights of an otherwise calm week.
USD: We are in Fed blackout mode now ahead of the March 15 FOMC decision – with the markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike. In this light, unless NFP is dismal, the markets will not care all that much. On the other hand, good numbers will seal the deal. Nothing else on the calendar can challenge the bullish USD view.
EUR: Enter the ECB. Given recent data output, upward revisions to growth forecasts are likely and a turn toward a more neutral if not slightly hawkish tone from Draghi is logical. However, we might very well get “uncertainty” mentioned, due to the French & Dutch elections. Obviously no change to policy is expected.
GBP: Not too much to look out for. MPC's Hogg speaks (Mon), UK Chancellor Hammond will deliver his first spring Budget (Wed), Manuf. PMI is out (Fri).
CAD: Soft wage gains, export weakness, and a bubble in the housing market have kept the BoC cautious. We get updates on these sectors this week: Trade Balance & Ivey PMI(Tue), Housing Starts/Building permits (Wed), Employment (Fri).
Asia: China reports Trade data (Wed) and CPI (Thurs) which can influence global risk appetite (via indices & Jpy pairs) as well as AsiaPac FX (Aussie, Kiwi).
The RBA also meets (Tue) but Retail Sales (Mon) will make things interesting leading into the event. Governor Lowe was relatively hawkish last time, but recent data has been mixed with a downwards tilt. With this new information, the RBA's tone may be more cautious. Retail Sales will play into this picture.
Nzd only has the GDT Auction on Tuesday, around 3 PM CET.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on Indices & AudNzd. Euro longs are also back in vogue, against everything except USD. Cad remains weak-ish vs. Usd also.
Good Luck!
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