You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Jawboning is likely to be the dominant influence this week.
USD: President Trump will be addressing Congress on Tuesday at 9PM EST and while influential, it's not clear what the tone will be. The Fed has work to do, in order to convince markets that March is live. During the week we get speeches from FED's Kaplan (Mon), Williams, Bullard. On Friday FED's Yellen speaks before the Executives Club of Chicago & FED's Fischer speaks in New York (12.30 PM EST), while FED's Evans, Mester & Lacker follow. On the data front we have Durable goods (Mon), GDP (Tue), ISM (Wed & Fri).
EUR: Market jitters surrounding upcoming European elections remain at the forefront of market concerns. Focus will be on CPI (Thur), GER Unemployment & CPI (Wed) and EU Services PMI & Retail Sales (Fri).
GBP: This week’s House of Lords committee stage examination of the ‘Brexit’ Bill and Northern Ireland Assembly elections are not expected to derail the UK government’s timetable to activate Article 50 by the end of March. As such, PMIs (Wed-Fri) could be more influential.
CAD: The Loonie will be influenced by earnings reports, but mainly by the BoC (Wed) & GDP (Thurs). Expect a generally dovish tone from the BoC's statement, as nothing much has changed since the last meeting.
Asia: China PMIs for manufacturing and services sectors as well as the composite PMIs will be released along with Caixin manufacturing PMI (Wed).
We also get Q4 GDP from Australia (Wed) and before that, NZD Trade Balance & ANZ business confidence (Mon/Tue).
Going into the week, I remain cautious and expect conditions to be tricky. As of Friday's close we seem to have some risk-aversion creeping through the markets, keeping Gold & Silver bid & the Jpy currencies sold. It is yet to be seen if this will continue into the new week.
Good Luck!
domenica 26 febbraio 2017
domenica 19 febbraio 2017
Weekly Game Plan - 19.2.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Going into this week, remember US & CAD markets will be closed on Monday. There is little meaningful data on the calendar this week and when that's the case, expect surprizes.
USD: FOMC Minutes should be irrelevant given Yellen's “spoiler” from her testimony last week. The only thing to pay attention to will be whether or not there have been signs of internal division on policy stances. Beyond that we will hear from 3 Fed officials: Lockhart (Thur), Mester (Sunday), Kashkari (Tue), Harker (Tue).
EUR: Focus will be on PMIs (Tue), Ger IFO (Wed). We might get some jitters on Greece during the Eurogroup meeting Monday.
GBP: BoE's Carney and MPC's Haldane, Vlieghe and McCafferty will testify to the Treasury Select Committee (Tue) on the February Inflation Report. Beyond that, the second estimate for Q4 GDP is out on Wednesday.
CAD: The Loonie will be influenced by earnings reports, Retail Sales (Wed) & CPI (Fri). BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins participates in a panel on “Regulations in the financial services sector”
(Tue) but market risk is fairly low.
Asia: RBA minutes will be released (Tue) & later in the day Lowe will be on the wires. Lowe is also testifying to the Parliament Committee (Thur).
Going into the week, I remain bullish on the Dow & on bullion. Within FX it's slim pickings. Marginal downside seems to be returning in GBP vs. Cad & Aud, and Euro vs. Jpy. AudNzd remains bullish.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Going into this week, remember US & CAD markets will be closed on Monday. There is little meaningful data on the calendar this week and when that's the case, expect surprizes.
USD: FOMC Minutes should be irrelevant given Yellen's “spoiler” from her testimony last week. The only thing to pay attention to will be whether or not there have been signs of internal division on policy stances. Beyond that we will hear from 3 Fed officials: Lockhart (Thur), Mester (Sunday), Kashkari (Tue), Harker (Tue).
EUR: Focus will be on PMIs (Tue), Ger IFO (Wed). We might get some jitters on Greece during the Eurogroup meeting Monday.
GBP: BoE's Carney and MPC's Haldane, Vlieghe and McCafferty will testify to the Treasury Select Committee (Tue) on the February Inflation Report. Beyond that, the second estimate for Q4 GDP is out on Wednesday.
CAD: The Loonie will be influenced by earnings reports, Retail Sales (Wed) & CPI (Fri). BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins participates in a panel on “Regulations in the financial services sector”
(Tue) but market risk is fairly low.
Asia: RBA minutes will be released (Tue) & later in the day Lowe will be on the wires. Lowe is also testifying to the Parliament Committee (Thur).
Going into the week, I remain bullish on the Dow & on bullion. Within FX it's slim pickings. Marginal downside seems to be returning in GBP vs. Cad & Aud, and Euro vs. Jpy. AudNzd remains bullish.
Good Luck!
domenica 12 febbraio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 13.2.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Going into this week, markets will need to digest the apparently benign outcome of the Trump/Abe meeting and, more importantly, FED President Fischer’s “Significant Uncertainty” statement.
USD: Fed Chair Yellen delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Panel (Tue) and the House Financial Services Committee (Wed). Whether the Fed will evaluate incoming data “over coming months” or not will be carefully watched to reaffirm that the Fed is on hold until June or whether the scenario has changed. Retail sales (Wed) could dip. CPI (Wed) will also be quite influential. Other macro reports will concentrate upon the industrial sector: Empire State (Wed), Philly Fed (Thur), industrial production (Wed) and producer prices (Tue).
Finally, 5 regional Fed Presidents also speak during the week including voters (Harker, Kaplan) alternates (Lacker, Lockhart) and a nonvoting FOMC member (Rosengren).
EUR: Ger & EU GDP (Tue) are scheduled for release along with EU trade and current account, as well as Ger ZEW (Tue) and CPI. But politics should be more influential as French politics takes center stage & the odds of outsider Marine Le Pen (far-right candidate) are very similar to those of Trump or Brexit. Greece is also back in the headlines
GBP: Busy week for the Pound as well. CPI (Tue) should rise, but unemployment data (Wed) should be more influential based on Carney’s latest statement. Finally Retail Sales (Thur) are expected to rise.
CAD: PMTrudeau will meet US President Trump in Washington (Mon) regarding NAFTA & risks will likely be dovish in terms of potential market influences. Manufacturing sales (Wed) probably slowed also. We also have a decent amount of earnings releases in Canada so the risks to the Loonie are mostly external.
Asia: The global “reflation” theme will be under scrutiny early Tuesday as China reports CPI (expected higher). Japanese GDP will likely disappoint.
For Australia, we have the Unemployment report (Thur) and for Nzd we have Retail sales (Thur).
Going into the week, Aud remains clearly bid against Eur, Nzd, Jpy. Dow, Silver & Copper are also behaving well for now. Things will get interesting after Yellen’s testimony as we might (finally) get the next move in the USD.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Going into this week, markets will need to digest the apparently benign outcome of the Trump/Abe meeting and, more importantly, FED President Fischer’s “Significant Uncertainty” statement.
USD: Fed Chair Yellen delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Panel (Tue) and the House Financial Services Committee (Wed). Whether the Fed will evaluate incoming data “over coming months” or not will be carefully watched to reaffirm that the Fed is on hold until June or whether the scenario has changed. Retail sales (Wed) could dip. CPI (Wed) will also be quite influential. Other macro reports will concentrate upon the industrial sector: Empire State (Wed), Philly Fed (Thur), industrial production (Wed) and producer prices (Tue).
Finally, 5 regional Fed Presidents also speak during the week including voters (Harker, Kaplan) alternates (Lacker, Lockhart) and a nonvoting FOMC member (Rosengren).
EUR: Ger & EU GDP (Tue) are scheduled for release along with EU trade and current account, as well as Ger ZEW (Tue) and CPI. But politics should be more influential as French politics takes center stage & the odds of outsider Marine Le Pen (far-right candidate) are very similar to those of Trump or Brexit. Greece is also back in the headlines
GBP: Busy week for the Pound as well. CPI (Tue) should rise, but unemployment data (Wed) should be more influential based on Carney’s latest statement. Finally Retail Sales (Thur) are expected to rise.
CAD: PMTrudeau will meet US President Trump in Washington (Mon) regarding NAFTA & risks will likely be dovish in terms of potential market influences. Manufacturing sales (Wed) probably slowed also. We also have a decent amount of earnings releases in Canada so the risks to the Loonie are mostly external.
Asia: The global “reflation” theme will be under scrutiny early Tuesday as China reports CPI (expected higher). Japanese GDP will likely disappoint.
For Australia, we have the Unemployment report (Thur) and for Nzd we have Retail sales (Thur).
Going into the week, Aud remains clearly bid against Eur, Nzd, Jpy. Dow, Silver & Copper are also behaving well for now. Things will get interesting after Yellen’s testimony as we might (finally) get the next move in the USD.
Good Luck!
domenica 5 febbraio 2017
Weekly Game Plan - 6.2.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Markets are between Scilla and Charybdis, waiting for good US policy actions to surpass expectations, yet hoping that bad US policy options will not be carried out. Watch out for RBA, RBNZ.
USD: Tweeting from President Trump will be the highlight of the week, if we explude the FOMC Minutes (which ought to be more influential than last week's decision). We also have Fedspeak to look out for.
EUR: Draghi (Mon) will be watched as he defends stimulus measures and Weidmann (Tue & Fri) will most likely bring out the counter-arguments later in the week. Beyond that we have Ger Ind.Prod. (Tue) and Trade Balance (Thur) are the only other highlight this week.
GBP: Attention might be directed at the A-50 parliamentary debate (Mon-Wed) and markets expect Article 50 to be triggered by end of March. Beyond that, we have Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Construction Output (all Friday).
CAD: Fairly boring week with Trade data (Tue), Housing (Wed), Employment (Fri). Externalities to dominate.
Asia: Reserve Bank of Australia (Tue) Is expected to remain on hold, as is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wed). China releases Caixin ServicesPMI (Mon) and then Trade figures later in the week.
Going into the week, Aud & Nzd are strongest vs. Usd & Gbp but things might change depending on the Central Bank decisions, so keep an eye out for those. US equities are bullish, along with Gold.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Markets are between Scilla and Charybdis, waiting for good US policy actions to surpass expectations, yet hoping that bad US policy options will not be carried out. Watch out for RBA, RBNZ.
USD: Tweeting from President Trump will be the highlight of the week, if we explude the FOMC Minutes (which ought to be more influential than last week's decision). We also have Fedspeak to look out for.
EUR: Draghi (Mon) will be watched as he defends stimulus measures and Weidmann (Tue & Fri) will most likely bring out the counter-arguments later in the week. Beyond that we have Ger Ind.Prod. (Tue) and Trade Balance (Thur) are the only other highlight this week.
GBP: Attention might be directed at the A-50 parliamentary debate (Mon-Wed) and markets expect Article 50 to be triggered by end of March. Beyond that, we have Trade Balance, Industrial Production, Construction Output (all Friday).
CAD: Fairly boring week with Trade data (Tue), Housing (Wed), Employment (Fri). Externalities to dominate.
Asia: Reserve Bank of Australia (Tue) Is expected to remain on hold, as is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wed). China releases Caixin ServicesPMI (Mon) and then Trade figures later in the week.
Going into the week, Aud & Nzd are strongest vs. Usd & Gbp but things might change depending on the Central Bank decisions, so keep an eye out for those. US equities are bullish, along with Gold.
Good Luck!
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