You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
North Korea launched another successful ICBM, but the markets are largely ignoring the rising nuclear threat. After all, the US has already invented lazer guns. Political shenanigans continue in Washington and have further delayed any possible progress on tax reforms or healthcare bills. The USD is still in jeopardy. Main events in FX are the RBA & BOE ahead of the all-important NFP-Friday.
USD: busy week for US data with Chicago PMI and Pending Homes Sales (Mon), ISM Manuf & core PCE Price Index (Tue), ADP (Wed), ISM non-manuf-Factory Orders-Durable Goods (Thurs), and US non-farm payrolls for July (Fri). The USD is starting the week on the back foot however.
EUR: we get EU Flash CPI readings (Mon), EU Manuf PMI and Q2 GDP (Tue), EU Services PMI and Retail Sales (Thur), Ger Industrial Orders (Fri). The market still maintains a bullish slant on the Euro.
GBP: beyond Super Thursday (BOE + Inflation Report) we get UK Manuf PMI (Mon), Constr PMI (Tue) and Services PMI (Wed).
CAD: Employment & IVEY PMI both come out on Friday
AsiaPac: China official MFG and non-MFG PMI (Mon), Caixin MFG PMI (Tue), Caixin Services PMI (Wed). It will be a busy week in Australia with Housing data (Mon), RBA (Tue), Building Approvals (Wed), Trade Data (Thur), Retail Sales and RBA minutes (Fri).
Going into the week I remain bullish on Dow & Crude, bearish on the USD. The USD is a basket case but I think one of the clearest fundamentally driven moves is on the Canadian dollar.
domenica 30 luglio 2017
domenica 23 luglio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 24.7.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Not much news on the weekend to move markets early this week. President Trump is most likely considering his options if the investigations do not turn out the way he hopes, by talking about "the power to pardon". Focus this week will be on FOMC but it will likely be a non-event. RBA's Lowe speaks on Wednesday and will likely reiterate the theme of Debelle's comments on Friday. US earnings season kicks into high gear with nearly 200 companies making up the S&P 500 reporting. So this week has the potential to be a big week for US stocks, the USD and AUD.
USD: main focus will be whether the FOMC (Wed) will escalate concern over recently soft inflation figures or reinforce guidance that it is expected to be transitory. Earnings will also take center stage, as will Q2 GDP (Fri).
EUR: busy week ahead with earnings out in Europe, PMIs (Mon), IFO (Tue).
GBP: dull week apart from Brexit talks and GDP (Wed). BOE's Haldane speaks (Tue)
CAD: GDP (Fri) will be the only expected macro development that could affect Canadian markets. Earnings reports and external risks will also be factors.
AsiaPac: Australia in focus near the beginning of the week with CPI & Lowe's speech (Tue).
Going into the week I am bearish on Dax, bullish on Gold, bullish on Eur, Nzd, Cad vs USD & GBP.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Not much news on the weekend to move markets early this week. President Trump is most likely considering his options if the investigations do not turn out the way he hopes, by talking about "the power to pardon". Focus this week will be on FOMC but it will likely be a non-event. RBA's Lowe speaks on Wednesday and will likely reiterate the theme of Debelle's comments on Friday. US earnings season kicks into high gear with nearly 200 companies making up the S&P 500 reporting. So this week has the potential to be a big week for US stocks, the USD and AUD.
USD: main focus will be whether the FOMC (Wed) will escalate concern over recently soft inflation figures or reinforce guidance that it is expected to be transitory. Earnings will also take center stage, as will Q2 GDP (Fri).
EUR: busy week ahead with earnings out in Europe, PMIs (Mon), IFO (Tue).
GBP: dull week apart from Brexit talks and GDP (Wed). BOE's Haldane speaks (Tue)
CAD: GDP (Fri) will be the only expected macro development that could affect Canadian markets. Earnings reports and external risks will also be factors.
AsiaPac: Australia in focus near the beginning of the week with CPI & Lowe's speech (Tue).
Going into the week I am bearish on Dax, bullish on Gold, bullish on Eur, Nzd, Cad vs USD & GBP.
domenica 16 luglio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 17.7.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
No real market moving events over the weekend, so expet a calm start to the week. More difficulties for Trumponomics ahead: healthcare bill might never pass given Republican defections. Markets seem immune to the stalemate in Washington so if per chance the bill passes, expect a strong revival of the Trump trade. US earnings season heats up this week with the tech sector in the spotlight. ECB and BoJ will be the main focus in FX this week, and both likely to sit pat.
USD: despite Yellen saying "nothing suggests that the expansion will die anytime soon.", retail sales and CPI make it tough to believe her. So dollar weakness may continue into the week, with a fairly bare calendar. Housing data (WEd), Philly Fed (Thur) the only interesting points.
EUR: on the contrary, EU data has been strong with retail sales, manufacturing and service sector activity improving. Inflation is the only weak spot but might surprize higher this week. We also have GER ZEW (Tue) and Current Account (Thur). The market believes Draghi may indicate a scaling back of QE efforts in September (Thur).
GBP: Pound strength has recently come from a weaker USD but also hawkish rhetoric from Mcafferty. This week we have the all important CPI, PPI and RPI (The), and Retail Sales (Thur).
CAD: again a top performer after BoC delivered a “hawkish hike” – suggesting the hike may be the start of a tightening cycle rather than a tweaking or adjustment. This week we have Manuf. Sales (Wed), then CPI & Retail Sales (Fri) which will be closely watched for confirmation of the Bank's stance. earnings season also starts in Canada.
AsiaPac:
Aussie data has been healthy recently but the RBA speakers (Heath, Debelle and Bullock) might try to talk down the currency this week. The RBA minutes are scheduled for release along with Australia's employment report which may underwhelm as there has been slower job growth in manufacturing and construction vs. stronger growth services.
Kiwi has benefitted from carry trade demand but local data has disappointed. This week we get the influential CPI print which should also underwhelm.
China data will also influence the region with GDP, retail sales and industrial production.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on the Dow and cautiously on Copper; in FX, I remain bullish on Cad, Aud & Gbp vs. USD.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
No real market moving events over the weekend, so expet a calm start to the week. More difficulties for Trumponomics ahead: healthcare bill might never pass given Republican defections. Markets seem immune to the stalemate in Washington so if per chance the bill passes, expect a strong revival of the Trump trade. US earnings season heats up this week with the tech sector in the spotlight. ECB and BoJ will be the main focus in FX this week, and both likely to sit pat.
USD: despite Yellen saying "nothing suggests that the expansion will die anytime soon.", retail sales and CPI make it tough to believe her. So dollar weakness may continue into the week, with a fairly bare calendar. Housing data (WEd), Philly Fed (Thur) the only interesting points.
EUR: on the contrary, EU data has been strong with retail sales, manufacturing and service sector activity improving. Inflation is the only weak spot but might surprize higher this week. We also have GER ZEW (Tue) and Current Account (Thur). The market believes Draghi may indicate a scaling back of QE efforts in September (Thur).
GBP: Pound strength has recently come from a weaker USD but also hawkish rhetoric from Mcafferty. This week we have the all important CPI, PPI and RPI (The), and Retail Sales (Thur).
CAD: again a top performer after BoC delivered a “hawkish hike” – suggesting the hike may be the start of a tightening cycle rather than a tweaking or adjustment. This week we have Manuf. Sales (Wed), then CPI & Retail Sales (Fri) which will be closely watched for confirmation of the Bank's stance. earnings season also starts in Canada.
AsiaPac:
Aussie data has been healthy recently but the RBA speakers (Heath, Debelle and Bullock) might try to talk down the currency this week. The RBA minutes are scheduled for release along with Australia's employment report which may underwhelm as there has been slower job growth in manufacturing and construction vs. stronger growth services.
Kiwi has benefitted from carry trade demand but local data has disappointed. This week we get the influential CPI print which should also underwhelm.
China data will also influence the region with GDP, retail sales and industrial production.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on the Dow and cautiously on Copper; in FX, I remain bullish on Cad, Aud & Gbp vs. USD.
domenica 9 luglio 2017
Weekly Game Plan - 10.7.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
G20 not likely to stir up any volatility when the markets open. Mostly talk about climate change. More importantly, anti-establishment riots have been as violent as ever in Hamburg. Then, Saturday, an estimated 70.000 peaceful protestors took to the streets. There is quite a large amount of discontent.
On Saturday, ECB's Villeroy said "...next fall, we will go on adapting the intensity of monetary policy". Policy adjustments in the fall are consistent with the market's expectations - but this may also be an excuse for some profit-taking in Eur longs.
BoC and Fed Chair Yellen's testimony will be the main attractions this week.
USD: fairly busy week for the US. Brainard speaks (Tues/Thurs), Fed's Yellen Testimony (Wed/Thurs), PPI (Thurs), Evans speaks (Thurs), CPI & Retail Sales (Fri), UoM (Fri), Kaplan speaks (Fri).
EUR: quiet week. Ger Trade Balance & EUR Sentix (Mon), Eur Ind.Prod (Tue), Ger final CPI (Thur).
GBP: a few influential prints with MPC's Haldane & Broadbent speak (Tues), Unemployment (Wed), Credit Conditions (Thur).
CAD: one of the focal points this week. Housing starts (Tue), BOC (Wed), New Home Price (Thur). To note, BOC's 25 bps hike is basically discounted. The accompanying statement will thus be the focal point.
AsiaPac: China has CPI & PPI (Mon) along with Trade Balance (Thur). Aussie has NAB business Confidence (Tue) and Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Wed). Nzd only has Biz manufacturing index (Fri).
Going into the week, I will be biased short on Crude, Gold & Silver. I will be biased Long CAD vs. Aud, Gbp, Jpy and Short JPY vs. Cad & Eur.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
G20 not likely to stir up any volatility when the markets open. Mostly talk about climate change. More importantly, anti-establishment riots have been as violent as ever in Hamburg. Then, Saturday, an estimated 70.000 peaceful protestors took to the streets. There is quite a large amount of discontent.
On Saturday, ECB's Villeroy said "...next fall, we will go on adapting the intensity of monetary policy". Policy adjustments in the fall are consistent with the market's expectations - but this may also be an excuse for some profit-taking in Eur longs.
BoC and Fed Chair Yellen's testimony will be the main attractions this week.
USD: fairly busy week for the US. Brainard speaks (Tues/Thurs), Fed's Yellen Testimony (Wed/Thurs), PPI (Thurs), Evans speaks (Thurs), CPI & Retail Sales (Fri), UoM (Fri), Kaplan speaks (Fri).
EUR: quiet week. Ger Trade Balance & EUR Sentix (Mon), Eur Ind.Prod (Tue), Ger final CPI (Thur).
GBP: a few influential prints with MPC's Haldane & Broadbent speak (Tues), Unemployment (Wed), Credit Conditions (Thur).
CAD: one of the focal points this week. Housing starts (Tue), BOC (Wed), New Home Price (Thur). To note, BOC's 25 bps hike is basically discounted. The accompanying statement will thus be the focal point.
AsiaPac: China has CPI & PPI (Mon) along with Trade Balance (Thur). Aussie has NAB business Confidence (Tue) and Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Wed). Nzd only has Biz manufacturing index (Fri).
Going into the week, I will be biased short on Crude, Gold & Silver. I will be biased Long CAD vs. Aud, Gbp, Jpy and Short JPY vs. Cad & Eur.
domenica 2 luglio 2017
Weekly Game Plan 3.7.17
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It will be a busy week data wise, despite the July 4th US holiday and NFP-Friday. Expect Monday's US session to be slow also as many will take advantage of the long weekend. On Saturday, ECB's Weidmann stated the ECB has started discussions on moving away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. The central bank convergence theme will likely persist this week ahead with the RBA meeting and Fed/ECB Minutes.
US: main event will be NFP-Friday, with participants wondering if the data will justify the FED's hawkish guidance. Beyond that, we will have Fed Minutes from the June meeting. ISM Manufacturing (Mon), Durable Goods and Factory Orders (Wed), ADP/ US trade/ISM non-manufacturing (Thurs) will also help shape up expectations. On Friday we'll also have the July 2017 Monetary Policy Report to Congress which might gather some attention.
EU: less influential data from EU this week with the exception of ECB minuted (Thur). EZ Manufacturing PMI and EZ unemployment (Mon), Services PMI and Retail Sales (Wed), German Industrial Orders (Thur), German IP (Fri).
UK: while PM May attempts to hang on to her post, markets will look to Manufacturing PMI (Mon), Services and Construction PMI (Wed), IP and UK Trade data (Fri) in order to gauge Carney's recent hawkish tilt. Carney will also be on the wires on Friday.
Cad: holiday on Monday, then we only have Trade Balance (Thur) and Employment (Fri).
AsiaPac: China data in the week ahead includes Caixin PMI (Mon) & Caixin Services PMI (Wed). Watch also the Tankan survey for Japan (Mon).
For Australia, there are a growing number of market participants looking for a hawkish tilt in the RBA's statement. However, most analysts expect the RBA to acknowledge improving employment, but fall short of moving away from a “neutral” bias. Other data includes Building Approvals and job ads (Mon), then Retail Sales (Tue) and Trade Data (Thur).
Going into the week, I am bearish on Dax/Eurostoxx; I remain bullish on GBP & CAD vs. USD & JPY; I remain bullish on Crude.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It will be a busy week data wise, despite the July 4th US holiday and NFP-Friday. Expect Monday's US session to be slow also as many will take advantage of the long weekend. On Saturday, ECB's Weidmann stated the ECB has started discussions on moving away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. The central bank convergence theme will likely persist this week ahead with the RBA meeting and Fed/ECB Minutes.
US: main event will be NFP-Friday, with participants wondering if the data will justify the FED's hawkish guidance. Beyond that, we will have Fed Minutes from the June meeting. ISM Manufacturing (Mon), Durable Goods and Factory Orders (Wed), ADP/ US trade/ISM non-manufacturing (Thurs) will also help shape up expectations. On Friday we'll also have the July 2017 Monetary Policy Report to Congress which might gather some attention.
EU: less influential data from EU this week with the exception of ECB minuted (Thur). EZ Manufacturing PMI and EZ unemployment (Mon), Services PMI and Retail Sales (Wed), German Industrial Orders (Thur), German IP (Fri).
UK: while PM May attempts to hang on to her post, markets will look to Manufacturing PMI (Mon), Services and Construction PMI (Wed), IP and UK Trade data (Fri) in order to gauge Carney's recent hawkish tilt. Carney will also be on the wires on Friday.
Cad: holiday on Monday, then we only have Trade Balance (Thur) and Employment (Fri).
AsiaPac: China data in the week ahead includes Caixin PMI (Mon) & Caixin Services PMI (Wed). Watch also the Tankan survey for Japan (Mon).
For Australia, there are a growing number of market participants looking for a hawkish tilt in the RBA's statement. However, most analysts expect the RBA to acknowledge improving employment, but fall short of moving away from a “neutral” bias. Other data includes Building Approvals and job ads (Mon), then Retail Sales (Tue) and Trade Data (Thur).
Going into the week, I am bearish on Dax/Eurostoxx; I remain bullish on GBP & CAD vs. USD & JPY; I remain bullish on Crude.
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