You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Trade war concerns are back on the table now that FOMC and ECB are out of the way. Most participants still believe the negative news on the trade front presents buying opportunities - they expect a last minute withdrawl on behalf of Trump which should ease the tensions. China surprisingly included US energy exports in their retaliatory tariffs, which could have an impact on the US shale energy sector. Trump is on a slippery slope here, and if a trade war does escalate, expect significant “risk-off” moves.
Beyond trade wars, the Bank of England meets Thursday, but is expected to remain on hold. Draghi will speak in Sintra, Portugal, but shouldn't disclose anything new after Thursday's dovish taper. OPEC and other large producers start a two-day meeting on Friday where they are expected to agree to an increase in production.
Regarding regular macro data, this week only sees NZD GDP and Cad Retail Sales & CPI.
Going into the week, Aud & Cad are weak vs. USD, Jpy, Gbp. This is driven by trade war fears and is the reason why Eur isn't as popular a short. The US tech sector (Nasdaq) remains resilient despite everything and is biased long. Crude Oil is biased short.
domenica 17 giugno 2018
domenica 10 giugno 2018
Weekly Game Plan 11.6.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
There wasn’t any progress at the leaders G7 Summit in Canada, as Trump arrived late and left early. The most representative quote is possibly "We’re Like the Piggy Bank that Everybody is Robbing". The G7 managed to send out a communique after the meeting ended, which was more an agreement to disagree on trade.
Possibly the best picture taken during the recent G7 meeting.
Fortunately the markets were not expecting anything different, and the broad consensus is still that there will not be a full-blown trade war. So there shouldn't be much commotion as Wellington opens up tonight. Moreover, Australian markets will also be closed which will further dampen participation.
So it should be a dull start to a volatile week, with FED, ECB & BOJ meetings due. Analysts actually expect the ECB meeting to be the most influential this time round (and we will be trading it live - reserve your spot!) after recent hawkish comments by Praet & co. Instead, the FED should stick to script and raise rates (which is already fully discounted by the market) so the focal point will be the statement (hawkish/dovish) and the dot plot (3 hikes or 4 in 2018?). The BOJ will possibly come & go without being noticed.
Beyond central banks, there will also be a meeting between Trump and NKorea leader Kim Jong-Un and the Brexit Bill Amendments vote in the UK. The markets have underestimated the risks here: bullish risk is that PM May will be forced towrads a softer brexit stance; bearish risk is that the delta of an internal leaderhip challenge rises. The vote takes place across 2 days (June 12-13) so GBP could prove to be volatile until that's settled.
Regarding macro data, the key releases will be US CPI& Retail Sales, UK CPI & Employment Change, AU Employment change and some Chinese data.
Going into a week like this, I feel like short-term positions may be the way to go ahead of the key central bank meetings. Attempting to establish core positions ahead of these events is risky business so my stance will be to remain flexible into the events, and possibly get a foot in the door as soon as possible after the events. So the initial watchlist this week might not mean much. WIth that said:
I remain bullish on Dow/SP500 and Copper, and there is some weakness in the Aussie coming through. I still like Italian Btp shorts. Everything else is still in the middle of nowhere.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
There wasn’t any progress at the leaders G7 Summit in Canada, as Trump arrived late and left early. The most representative quote is possibly "We’re Like the Piggy Bank that Everybody is Robbing". The G7 managed to send out a communique after the meeting ended, which was more an agreement to disagree on trade.
Possibly the best picture taken during the recent G7 meeting.
Fortunately the markets were not expecting anything different, and the broad consensus is still that there will not be a full-blown trade war. So there shouldn't be much commotion as Wellington opens up tonight. Moreover, Australian markets will also be closed which will further dampen participation.
So it should be a dull start to a volatile week, with FED, ECB & BOJ meetings due. Analysts actually expect the ECB meeting to be the most influential this time round (and we will be trading it live - reserve your spot!) after recent hawkish comments by Praet & co. Instead, the FED should stick to script and raise rates (which is already fully discounted by the market) so the focal point will be the statement (hawkish/dovish) and the dot plot (3 hikes or 4 in 2018?). The BOJ will possibly come & go without being noticed.
Beyond central banks, there will also be a meeting between Trump and NKorea leader Kim Jong-Un and the Brexit Bill Amendments vote in the UK. The markets have underestimated the risks here: bullish risk is that PM May will be forced towrads a softer brexit stance; bearish risk is that the delta of an internal leaderhip challenge rises. The vote takes place across 2 days (June 12-13) so GBP could prove to be volatile until that's settled.
Regarding macro data, the key releases will be US CPI& Retail Sales, UK CPI & Employment Change, AU Employment change and some Chinese data.
Going into a week like this, I feel like short-term positions may be the way to go ahead of the key central bank meetings. Attempting to establish core positions ahead of these events is risky business so my stance will be to remain flexible into the events, and possibly get a foot in the door as soon as possible after the events. So the initial watchlist this week might not mean much. WIth that said:
I remain bullish on Dow/SP500 and Copper, and there is some weakness in the Aussie coming through. I still like Italian Btp shorts. Everything else is still in the middle of nowhere.
domenica 3 giugno 2018
Weekly Game Plan 4.6.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one place here. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It might be a volatile start to the week as the risk-on sentiment from Friday might reverse as trade tensions escalate after the US persisted with tariffs on Japan, Canada, Mexico and the EU and led to retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, Secretary Ross is in Beijing to urge China to buy more American goods to reduce the trade deficit the US has with China and secure greater intellectual property protection. The tensions seen at the Whistler G7 FinMin conference may be a tell-tail for the G7 Leaders Summit which will take place this week.
In other news, Italy has avoided the need to call another election that would have created great uncertainty. However, many analysts still question how populist parties on the right and left will maintain a government that will abide by the strict EU budget rules. For the time being, all is well and the markets will likely focus on the brewing international trade war.
Regarding data, Australia is the protagonist this week. The RBA will likely be a non-event, but Australia also has Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance. Canada will only have the Employment Report. China will release Caixin Services PMI and trade data.
Going into the week I remain biased long on Nasdaq, short on Crude, and although there's much confusion in FX at the moment, it seems that GBP is gaining some favour vs. USD, JPY & CAD.
Be sure to check our TradingView page for updates as the week evolves.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
It might be a volatile start to the week as the risk-on sentiment from Friday might reverse as trade tensions escalate after the US persisted with tariffs on Japan, Canada, Mexico and the EU and led to retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, Secretary Ross is in Beijing to urge China to buy more American goods to reduce the trade deficit the US has with China and secure greater intellectual property protection. The tensions seen at the Whistler G7 FinMin conference may be a tell-tail for the G7 Leaders Summit which will take place this week.
In other news, Italy has avoided the need to call another election that would have created great uncertainty. However, many analysts still question how populist parties on the right and left will maintain a government that will abide by the strict EU budget rules. For the time being, all is well and the markets will likely focus on the brewing international trade war.
Regarding data, Australia is the protagonist this week. The RBA will likely be a non-event, but Australia also has Retail Sales, GDP and Trade Balance. Canada will only have the Employment Report. China will release Caixin Services PMI and trade data.
Going into the week I remain biased long on Nasdaq, short on Crude, and although there's much confusion in FX at the moment, it seems that GBP is gaining some favour vs. USD, JPY & CAD.
Be sure to check our TradingView page for updates as the week evolves.
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