Weekly Game Plan 2 Dec 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

We enter quite a busy week with central bank meetings, NFP and other data coming up above and beyond the usual US/China trade war and the upcoming UK Elections. GBP was the strongest mover last week on the YouGov polls putting Johnson in the lead with a strong advantage, which diminishes uncertainty and points to a clear Brexit resolution.  Risk appetite remained strong last week with stocks hitting new highs and Jpy weakening.

Over the weekend China official manufacturing PM posted 50.2, back into expansion for the first time since April this year. Hence, risk appetite may continue into the week although we still have to see the Caixin PMI early Monday.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• CRUDE OIL: December 5th will be a big day for oil markets. OPEC gathers for a policy meeting and the same day, OPEC's biggest producer Saudi Arabia will give the final pricing for the IPO of state oil firm Aramco. The IPO will be the elephant in the OPEC meeting room because the oil price at the time will be key to the listing, expected in mid-December.
• US/China Trade War: headlines on the trade war will continue to dictate risk appetite, as the December 15th tariff-deadline approaches, and Trump has allowed the Hong Kong bill to pass. Markets thus far are discounting no additional tariffs and no intervention in Hong Kong...but with Trump anything can happen.
• Central Banks: neither the RBA nor the BOC are expected to cut rates this week, so guidance will be key.
• NFP-Friday: as usual the Payroll data will garner attention. As the GM strike is over, there may be a natural rebound this month in the headline.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• Caixin PMI
• ECB's Lagarde (Monday)
• US ISM Numbers (Mon, Wed)
• RBA Decision
• AU GDP
• Bank of Canada Decision
• AU Retail Sales
• OPEC
• Cad Employment Change
• US NFP

On the Radar:

Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities, bullish on GBPJPY and GBPAUD and I will be watching Crude Oil post-OPEC.

Weekly Game Plan 25 Nov 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Last week was a cautious one, with risk assets generally finishing the week lower. Despite kind words from Trump and Xi, the relations between the US and China are still not clear: arguments over human rights, Hong Kong and U.S. support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan continue to drag on, and over the weekend Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi added gas to the fire saying that the US is the strongest source of instability!  However, sources reported China will raise penalties for violations of intellectual property rights and look into lowering the threshold for those who steal IP, according to new government guidelines released Sunday.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• It’s almost all about the US/China Trade Debate: as a Dec. 15 deadline for U.S. tariff hikes approaches, Beijing has reportedly invited top U.S. negotiators to talks. But it might call those off if President Trump signs into law a bill supporting Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters or if U.S. warships keep sailing near islands it claims in the South China Sea.
• HK Elections: this election is for District Council positions that wield little power or influence. The significance of the election lies in the context of recent protests against China’s incursions into Hong Kong’s administration. There has been a record turnout (63%).

Data in the Week Ahead:

• GER IFO
• NZD Retail Sales Q/Q
• RBA Lowe Speech
• RBNZ Financial Stability Report
• RBNZ Orr Speech
• US GDP Q/Q
• CAD GDP

On the Radar:

Once again this week everything will hinge on US/China news output. Equities closed the week rather neutral, but especially US equities have attempted to forme a base and so I am not bearish just yet. Aud, Cad and Euro weakness vs. USD and (trade war depending) vs Jpy seem like the clearest bets in FX space. But keep your eyes on the wires again.

Weekly Game Plan 18 Nov 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Last week showed decoupling between US equities (boosted by optimism on the Trade War front) and AsiaPac equities (lower on HK unrest). However, no safe-haven flows were seen just yet. With no developments over the weekend, the markets will likely pick up from where they left off on Friday.

Themes for the Week:

• Trade War: any headlined and developments on the trade war front will take center stage in an otherwise calm week. While equity markets are latching onto any positive headline, the mixed messages from the White House, the mood changes of the US president and the shifting demands from Chinese officials have created an air of uncertainty. With equities sky high, the sensitive side is the downside, if we get negative headlines.
• GBP Sentiment: finally it seems that the Pound is becoming tradable again. From what I'm reading, it seems that so long as Johnson continues to hold his lead in the polls, the Pound will continue it's ascent as traders believe a clear win by the Conservatives should ensure the passage of Johnson’s Brexit deal and end the uncertainty that has plagued the GBP over the past few years.
• Hong Kong: the US Senate could pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act this week that would review Hong Kong’s special status annually. Thus far, Trump has demonstrated no tangible support for Hong Kong’s protestors but if Trump decides to back the bill, it would be seen by China as interference in internal affairs and would potentially imperil trade cooperation.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• RBA Minutes
• CAD CPI
• FOMC Minutes
• ECB Minutes
• BOC's Poloz Speaks
• ECB'S Lagarde Speaks
• EU PMIs
• CAD Retail Sales

On the Radar:

Going into the week, the most evident trade (as it has been for a few weeks now) remains long US equities and EU equities. The recent downside action in AUDNZD may also continue, and small GBP longs vs. Jpy, Eur and Aud may be in favour. Finally, keep an eye on Crude, attempting another break upwards.

Weekly Game Plan 11 Nov 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Trade optimism was the main theme driving the financial markets last week but with conflicting headlines over the weekend, things may be different with Asia opens.  After the markets closed on Friday, White House advisor Navarro told Yahoo Finance that Trump will not roll back tariffs as part of a phase one trade deal. Navarro said the Chinese are trying “to use the western press” to box the US into agreeing to a rollback of some of the existing tariffs, and that “the president is having none of that”. To further complicate the outlook for this week, China inflation data was mixed, with headline CPI rising more than expected while PPI fell more than expected.

Remember that US bond markets  and Canadian markets are closed on Monday.

Themes for the Week:

• Focus remains on fluid status of US-China talks.
• The RBNZ meets this week and the market is pricing in around a 65% chance of a 25 Bp cut to 0.75%.
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivers the annual Economic Outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of the US
  Congress on Wednesday. Fedspeak will be abundant this week, above & beyond Powell.
• Bank of Canada Governor Poloz delivers a key note address at the San Francisco Federal Reserve on Thursday night (10pmET) with remarks available fifteen minutes beforehand.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• UK GDP
• NZD Inflation Expectations
• UK Employment Change
• GER ZEW
• RBNZ Decision
• UK CPI
• US CPI
• AU Employment Change
• GER GDP Q/Q
• UK Retail Sales
• US Retail Sales

On the Radar:

Going into the week I remain bullish on US equities in particular. I remain bullish on Crude Oil. I'm bearish on Gold. I'm bullish USD vs Eur and Kiwi.

Weekly Game Plan 4 Nov 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start to the week with Tokyo on holiday and no market moving news out over the weekend. Last week ended with a risk-on tone after the  "Goldilocks" NFP report...which overshadowed the worse  ISM manufacturing data. Equities closed at the highs, US yields rose but FX was rather muted and the USD eased. The Loonie was the worst performer after a dovish BOC opened the door to a rate cut. In contrast, the Aussie was the best performer after rate cut expectations were diminished.

Themes for the Week:

• US/China Trade War: the US-China trade talks appear to be going well enough to maintain optimism a phase one deal will be agreed to. Just watch out for any tape bombs...
• RBA: the market is giving virtually no chance of another cut so the focus will be on the statement.
• BOE: markets are expecting another non-event as we all await the December election turnout.

Data in the week ahead:

• AU Retail Sales
• RBA Decision
• NZ Employment Q/Q
• BOE Decision
• CAD Employment
• China Trade Balance

On the Radar

Going into this week (a quiet from from a news perspective) I continue to favour longs on Nasdaq, SP500, Dax even...and Crude if we break last week's highs. In FX, I like AUD & NZD longs against USD and Cad. We seem to have broad USD weakness so perhaps Eur longs and Gbp longs might be viable as well.

Weekly Game Plan 28 Oct 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Last week ended on a strong note for risk assets and the Loonie after speculation that US and China are on track to complete the easier phase 1 trade deal in November. These reports were confirmed on Saturday by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. So the risk appetite may continue this week as well, ahead of key event risk. Beyond this, the Brexit situation remains fluid as the EU is said to agree to another Brexit extension, but hold back to the announcement, awaiting UK’s vote on a December election, which Johnson called for.

It will be a very busy week, which could result in a pick-up in volatility and volumes, with a plethora of risk events such as key US earnings, central bank meetings, and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Themes for the week:

• Brexit: extension, elections, or else? The situation remains fluid...what happens next is anyone's guess.
• US/China trade debate will continue to sway markets.
• FOMC: a rate cut is priced in, and the market is also expecting some hawkish commentary. So, it appears Powell's presser will be the core focus.
• BOJ:  Kuroda says the BOJ could “certainly” cut rates further, in order to face the slower economy. Analysts reckon a move to -0.2% or even -0.3% are possible from the current -0.1%. But no one is quite sure what it would take to make that cut.
• BOC: No change is expected but there will be new forecasts, the risks to the monetary policy report, and the press conference.
• US Earnings:  Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, GM and Starbucks among the many companies reporting.
• Civil Unrest: From Hong Kong to Beirut to Santiago, protests and civil unrest have been raging, posing a headache for investors as well as governments. This has yet to take it's toll on equites worldwide, but is still holding back money managers from committing to larger positions. It would seem that governments will make concessions going foward, in order to calm the masses.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• RBA's Lowe Speaks
• AU CPI
• US GDP Q/Q
• Bank of Canada Decision (no change expected) & Presser
• FOMC Decision & Presser (hawkish 0.25% cut expected)
• CNY PMI
• Bank of Japan Decision & Presser
• CAD GDP
• US PCE
• Non Farm Payrolls
• US ISM

On the Radar:

Equities closed on a strong note last week, so I remain biased long, always keeping an eye on earnings. There was also a revival in Crude last week, which could very well continue. In FX, with so much event risk due it's logical to expect some volatility, but for now we need to base our initial watchlist on Friday's closing prices. That would put Cad at the top vs Jpy & Chf.

Weekly Game Plan 21 Oct 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Once again, what should have been a defining moment for Brexit was instead a non-event. There was no meaningful vote on Saturday and Boris Johnson was forced to request an extension to the EU...however, he didn't sign the letter(!). Instead he sent another letter (signed) saying that an extension was against his own will. It is likely that the UK PM will declare he has been coerced, hence  blocking any further progress.

In the meantime the clock is ticking. Parliament could have avoided a No Deal by voting for Johnson's deal. Now, it's either No Deal or a delay + new elections (which Boris Johnson would win, and then he would pull a quick Brexit).

What we are witnessing is truely the end of Democracy as we knew it in the West. Political parties are no longer working towards common ground. Indeed, as Ray Dalio has been saying for some time now, there is political polarization and extremism. And since common citizens see their leaders bickering against each other, this whole polarization and extremism filters through the population and spreads hatred and violence.

Themes for the Week:

• Brexit: it is unclear what will go down this week. Surely we will see more debates, possibly another Meaning(less) vote, more bickering. GBP influenced all of FX last week with it's tremendous ascent on speculation/hopes of a Deal. That might fade or at least pause after yet another stalemate over teh weekend. The EU's response to Johnsons's 2 letters will be key.
• ECB: There are no influential measures to be released or debated at this Thursday's ECB meeting, but it will be Draghi's last.
• US Earnings: more than 130 S&P 500 companies and over one-third of the Dow industrials will be reporting results, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Reports flow in from many corners of Corporate America, from industrial bellwethers Boeing and Caterpillar to internet retailing titan Amazon.com. Biotech leaders Biogen and Gilead Sciences and carmaker Ford are among others to post results.
• EU Earnings: Europe's Q3 season too opens in earnest next week and is likely to again elicit unfavourable comparisons with corporate America. Thursday will see some infliuential German companies report.
• Canada Elections: while much calmer and cleaner than Brexit, Canada  kicks the week off with political developments. Voters head to the polls to elect a new Federal government. Significant data risk will ensue but could get lost in the reporting of the election results. A minority Liberal government is expected. The count will start at 10PM EST tomorrow, so as London opens up on Tuesday the results should be confirmed.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• CAD Retail Sales
• CAD Business Outlook Survey
• EU & Ger PMIs
• GER IFO
• ECB Decision

On the Radar:

It's quite tough to have any convinction in the moves seen up to Friday, which were mostly GBP-inspired. We saw evident USD weakness vs. Eur, Gbp, Chf and Cad. Whether this will continue or not is yet to be seen.

Weekly Game Plan 14 Oct 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Global markets were boosted strongly last week on the back of positive developments on both Brexit and the US/China trade war. With no other influential news out over the weekend, we should pickup where we left off on Friday.

Themes for the Week:

US/China: phase 1 negotiations went well. For now the markets are trading with a risk-on tone. The trade-war is far from over however, but for now let's enjoy the moment of truce.

Brexit: the situation  took a dramatic step forward with the meeting between UK PM Johnson and Irish PM Varadkar on Thursday. However, a big question forward is that Johnson would need support from Northern Ireland DUP to secure enough votes in the parliament. Here are the key dates and events this week that will sway the Pound:

• Oct. 13 -  Merkel and  Macron meet to prepare for upcoming summits where Brexit will top the agenda.
• Oct 13-14 - The 27 EU ambassadors are briefed by EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier after a weekend of intensive, so-called “tunnel” talks with Britain.
• Oct. 14 – British parliament reconvenes, setting the stage for further attempts by lawmakers to ensure the Oct. 31 deadline for withdrawal is extended.
• Oct. 15 - European affairs ministers from the EU27 discuss the state of play of Brexit with an update from Barnier to prepare the leaders’ summit of Oct. 17-18.
• Oct. 17-18 - EU government leaders meet in Brussels for a European Council summit. If a Brexit agreement is struck, it will have to be approved by the British parliament.

Earnings: the biggest U.S. banks are expected to kick off the earnings season on a sour note due to falling interest rates, which may have pressured net interest margins enough to cause the sector’s first year-over-year earnings per share decline in three years. Tuesday brings third quarter profit reports from Citigroup Inc, Wells Fargo and Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Goldman Sachs. Bank of America reports on Wednesday.

Turkey: watch out for any escalation between Turkey and Syria. Ergodan launched a military campaign against Kurdish forces to which Trump replied: "I say hit Turkey very hard financially & with sanctions if they don't play by the rules! I am watching closely".

Data in the Week Ahead:

• RBA Minutes
• BOE's Carney Speech
• UK Employment Change
• NZ CPI
• UK CPI
• CAD CPI
• US Retail Sales
• AU Employment Change
• UK Retail Sales
• CNY GDP

On the Radar:

Going into the week I will cautiously bet on GBP strength and Cad strength vs. Jpy and Chf. I will also remain biased long on equities until we see the colour of US earnings.

Weekly Game Plan 7 Oct 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

With no influential news released over the weekend, the open in Wellington tonight should be smooth. Friday saw markets react positively to the "goldilocks" NFP report: it's not bad enough to scare policymarkers, and not good enough to generate much enthusiasm. However, FED rate cut probabilities for October fell to 76% from over 80% on Thursday.

I personally think the risk-recovery was driven more by Trump's positivity regarding the coming week's US/China trade talks than NFP. We now know that headlines on trade will be influential. At the same time, Brexit news will also impact the markets as the EU has rejected PM Johnsons' latest plan.

Themes for the Week:

• US/China trade talks: on Oct. 10-11 President Xi Jinping's top economic adviser, Vice Premier Liu He, will be in Washington. Investors' expectations are low, given Trump's unpredictability.
• FOMC Minutes and Powell: markets will also be following Powell's speeches and FOMC minutes closely. The Minutes may be less influential this week since Powell will be speaking on Tuesday.
• Brexit: October 11th is the deadline for the UK to deliver an acceptable proposal..so there probably won't be one. Investors generally think that British lawmakers' move to force Johnson to seek an extension will be enough to avert a no-deal Brexit at the end of this month. What The situation remains fluid.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• Powell Speeches
• Carney Speeches
• FOMC Minutes
• UK GDP
• ECB Minutes
• US CPI
• Cad Employment

On the Radar:

I don't have a lot of convinction on anything going into the week since there really wasn't a whole lot of directionality in last week's closes. Jpy maintains it's strength despite the recovery in stocks, and Cad had a bad week. This would suggest CadJpy shorts. But the risk-on/risk-off dynamic will be decided by the US/China trade news. Crude Oil remains in a downtrend despite having bounced a tad and we need to see a return to sub-52.00 prices to have faith in another leg down.

Basically, this week don't be in any rush to put on positions. Keep your ears on the wires instead!

Short Coaching Video Series

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Have a great weekend!

Weekly Game Plan 16 Sep 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

The first thing that will be on everyone's mind tonight at the open will be the attack on the Saudi Arabia Oil fields. This will be bullish for oil, bearish for equities and global growth. In other news, UK PM Boris Johnson said huge progress had been made on resolving the Northern Irish backstop sticking point in Brexit talks.

Themes for the week:

• Crude Oil: the attack on Saudi Arabia will disrupt oil production in the near term. Expect a large gap up in Crude, and other energy prices. Also, higher inflation (from oil prices) might inflate global growth issues (since higher prices are a drag on consumption & savings) and send indices lower. Expect Cad to outperform.
• FED: the market is expecting a 0.25% cut already, so the more important parts will be the dot-plot (will there be enough voters to hypothesize a third cut by the end of 2019?) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (will the Fed be data-dependant - the hawkish case - or will the Fed be preemptive - dovish case?).
• BOJ:  the markets are expecting the BOJ to keep their powder dry, but equally there is a consensus that more easing is due this year. So the BOJ could actually surprize markets on Thursday if it wants to.
• BOE: the Bank of England also meets on Thursday, but it should be a non-event, as the Brexit drama will keep the MPC sidelined.
• Brexit: the situation remains fluid but BoJo spoke about significant progress regarding the Irish backstop, which could further enhance the odds of a deal with the EU.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• China Industrial Production, Retail Sales
• RBA Minutes
• GER ZEW
• UK CPI
• CAD CPI
• FOMC
• NZD GDP
• AU Employment Change
• BOJ
• UK Retail Sales
• BOE
• CAD Retail Sales

On the Radar:

Things will be much different when we approach the markets tomorrow, after the weekend developments. Last week we closed with risk-on, strong equity markets and a weak JPY; instead this week may open with the opposite: risk-off, strong crude oil prices, weak equity markets, strong CAD and stronger Jpy.  The only continuation may be seen in GBP and Euro (on the long side) going into the week.

Weekly Game Plan 9 Sep 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Last week closed with a muted reaction to NFPs and the speech from Powell. The US payroll report was mixed with the headline jobs number coming in slightly worse than expected, while the average hourly earnings was slightly better. Investor sentiment was boosted by news that US/China will talk in October, as well as the move by the PBOC on Friday to cut the RRR by 50 BPs to all banks provided an added boost to EM assets and currencies.

Over the weekend China's exports unexpectedly fell 1% and copper imports also fell in August. So there may be a bit less optimism when markets open tonight.

In the week ahead, we will have more volatility on the Pound, but the big event will be the ECB decision.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• Brexit:  The UK political scene remains fluid and uncertain. The markets are trading as usual: no Brexit/delay = pro Pound; hard Brexit/BoJo having his way = negative Pound. It does seem difficult that a Brexit can be avoided...but in politics anything can happen.
• ECB: The market is expecting the ECB to cut the lending rate by 0.1% while also announcing a resumption of their asset purchase programme (APP) and a tiered reserve system. The question becomes: will Draghi exceed (as usual) or will the governing council remain more conservative?
• US/China trade debate: always relevant, but nothing new is to be expected this week.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• UK GDP
• UK Employment
• ECB Decision
• US CPI
• US Retail Sales

One the Radar:

Last week's closing information was all about risk-on and as such going into the week, Dow & Dax longs look good, as well as Aud & Cad strength vs. Eur and Jpy. GBP will remain headline-driven. 

Weekly Game Plan 12 Aug 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start to the week with Asia on holiday and no influential news out over the weekend. It will be a data-filled week, with the focus being on GBP and the US/China trade war, as well as the Italian political scene.

Themes for the Week:

• US/China Trade War: continue to monitor the wires for progress/lack of progress, Trump tweets and the CNY fixing (above/below 7.0). For the moment, there is no indication that the US wants to back down from playing hardball.
• GBP: An extremely poor UK GDP print last week heightened anxiety over the highly possible hard UK Brexit. The Pound is liable to decline further this week as the BOE might need to start planning cuts.
• Italian Issues: PM Conte and his Deputy Salvini are locked in a contest for power with Salvini demanding elections and
  threatening to bring down the government. Salvini heads the xenophobic League party. An interim guarantee government is being explored before possible elections in October or November. Developments will require close monitoring. Hanging in the balance is Italy’s sizeable structural deficit  and heavily front-loaded debt maturity profile. Italian assets are likely to remain under pressure.
• EUR: We get a reading of EUR GDP this week and with the current focus on growth issues, it might be more market-moving than usual.

Data in the week ahead:

• UK Employment
• US CPI
• EU ZEW
• UK CPI
• AU Employment
• UK Retail Sales
• US Retail Sales

On the Radar:

The recovery in risk assets has been powerful but we’re not out of the water yet. I will actually seek two-way opportunities this week in equities. In FX, I remain bearish on GBP going into a data-filled week, and I like stacking it against Jpy and Chf. I also continue to be biased long on Gold, and I’ll be biased short on the FTSE MIB (Italy).

Weekly Game Plan 5 Aug 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

No further news was issued over the weekend so the drivers will likely be the same as where we left off on Friday: Trump smacking further tariffs on China, and China pledging to retaliate. In other news, Brexit fears continue as a close advisor to Boris Johnson said that Brexit cannot be stopped. As a reminder, we’re going into the summer doldrums so traders’ risk appetites will be decreasing, and the markets will probably slow down a tad. The only volatility will be caused by news events and these particular themes.

Themes for the Week:

• Trade War: all eyes will be on China’s retaliation (if/how it is deployed) after Trump’s abrupt tariff increase. All the while Trump has been saying “things are going well with China”…This took precedence over NFP numbers which were not great to be honest.
• RBA and RBNZ: the RBA is expected to remain on hold with a dovish statement, and the RBNZ is expected to cut. The prevailing consensus is that central banks cannot really remain idle when the FED is cutting.
• GBP: the Pound will remain under pressure so long as the prospects of a no-deal Brexit remain on the table. Weekend papers haven’t provided any further clues on this. PMI and GDP data will be influential.

Data in the week ahead:

• ISM Non-Manuf. PMI (expected to be stronger)
• NZ Employment Change (tough call)
• RBA Decision (market expecting a dovish tone)
• RBNZ Decision (market expecting a rate cut)
• UK GDP (Expected weaker)
• CAD Unemployment

On the Radar:

Going into the week I am biased short on Dax and Nasdaq, and biased long on Jpy and Chf vs. Aud & Nzd weakness.

Weekly Game Plan 29 Jul 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

It should be a quiet start when the markets open tonight, unless the weak China data released over the weekend weighs on sentiment. This week is full of data, but outside of the data-driven boosts I wouldn’t bet on much movement as we face month end and the summer doldrums. Moves are likely to be concentrated around FOMC and NFP. We enter the week on the back of a better GDP report/stronger USD, and stronger equities after decent earnings.

Themes for the Week:

• FOMC: this will be the main focus. Consensus is for a 0.25% cut and a dovish statement and presser. If we do get relatively benign US data plus an accomodative FOMC, expect the risk rally in equities to continue.
• Earnings: we will get results from 164 firms listed on the S&P500. Breadth deepens and some of the names will include Apple, Merck and Pfizer.
• BOJ is expected to be a non-event, with no changes expected (not that the previous stimumus did anything to help the Japanese economy…).
• BOE: no change is expected but the meeting will be watched for policymakers’ assessment of the British economy’s current downturn, and how they might respond should the UK exit the EU without a transition deal under Boris Johnson.
• US/China Trade War: U.S. and Chinese chief trade negotiators will lock horns on Tuesday in Shanghai in what will officially be their 12th round of meetings.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• BOJ Decision
• US PCE
• CNY PMIs
• AU CPI
• EUR CPI
• CAD GDP
• FOMC Decision
• BOE Decision
• US ISM
• AU Retail Sales
• US Non-Farm Payrolls

On the Radar:

Volatility in FX has been dropping further, and that does not inspire much action outside of data-driven moves. With that said, there have been directional closes last week and the best looking candidates for continuation are AUD,GBP,NZD (weakness) vs. USD & CAD (strength). Equity performance will hinge on earnings and the SP looks like the main candidate for longs.

Weekly Game Plan 22 Jul 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

There wasn’t any fresh news on the weekend, but the escalation of tensions between Iran and the west following the seizure of a British flagged tanker may start to weigh on risk assets and encourage some safe-haven flows. Crude Oil has been falling o sour global growth outlook but escalating tensions should start to affect prices sooner or later. Key events this week will be the ECB decision, US GDP and the UK leadership contest.

Themes for the Week:

• US Q1 GDP will be the main event this week and will shape market expectations ahead of the FOMC decision next week. Remember that the market is pricing in a 0.25% cut after Fed's Williams' speech.
• The ECB meeting will also be a key event. ECB expectations have turned extremely dovish over the past few weeks with banks starting to price in rate cuts and the return to bond buying sometime this year. It will be tough for the ECB to meet these expectations but we shall see.
• Watch the Pound between Tuesday and Wednesday: Boris Johnson is expected to get the PM job and the market is watching to see if he softens his stance regarding negotiating with the EU on a Brexit plan if he gets the job. If he remains steadfast committed to a no-deal Brexit, GBP should continue it's descent.
• Earnings: Netflix kicked off earnings for FAANG stocks on a bleak note. Of course it doesn't mean shares of Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet will do the same but it's a worry. Markets will be watching closely.
• Summer Doldrums: as we approach August, expect less volatility in FX outside of major news releases.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• EUR PMIs (expectations are dovish)
• ECB Rates Decision (Expectations are dovish)
• US GDP (Expectations are dovish)

On the Radar:

Going into the week, the more decisive signals seems to be on equities with Nasdaq or SP500 shorts, Dax shorts and perhaps Gold longs still (gold has been a great trading vehicle of late with it's volatility).  There isn't much to write home about in FX. Some weakness in the Euro and strength in CHF is all that seemed evident into Friday's close. But the Euro's fate will be decided by the ECB this week.

Weekly Game Plan 15 Jul 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Growth issues remain at top of mind with central banks easing and PMIs slowing down across the globe. Risk assets remain bid on Central bank support and a lower US dollar. After a dull weekend, we will have a busy week with US company earnings in focus alongside central bank guidance and decisive event risk. The USD should remain offered ahead of the July 31 FOMC meeting, and UsdJpy (short) will come into focus if/when the growth issues start to affect risk assets.

Themes for the Week Ahead:

• Data dependancy: a plethora of data is due in the week ahead and it all comes back to growth concerns and inflation. Are central banks correct in their cautious stance or not?
• Earnings: Fifty-seven S&P500 firms release earnings over the coming week. It’s not expected to be a robust season, with the consensus estimate for a 2% year-ago drop in earnings. Among the key names are Citigroup, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, eBay, Netflix, Microsoft, BlackRock, United and Amex.  With valuations stretched and lingering worries about the economic impact of protracted U.S.-China trade tensions, disappointing results could pour cold water on the rally.
• Tariff Threats: last week French lawmakers approved a tax on big tech companies, potentially creating more tension on the trade front. Trump has ordered an investigation into the French tech tax plans, a probe that could lead to the U.S. imposing new tariffs or other trade restrictions. The trade war continues and Europe has entered the battle field it seems...

Data in the Week ahead:

• China GDP
• NZD CPI (should be better)
• RBA Minutes (could be dovish)
• UK Employment change (tough call)
• Ger ZEW (tough call)
• US Retail Sales (could be lower)
• Powell Speech
• UK CPI (tough call)
• CAD CPI (could be lower)
• AU Employment Change (could be lower)
• UK Retail Sales (could be lower)
• CAD Retail Sales (could be higher)

On the Radar:

Dow (longs), Crude (longs), UsdCad shorts, EurCad shorts, NzdUsd longs, EurNzd shorts, perhaps EurJpy shorts.

Weekly Game Plan 1 Jul 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Back after a short break.

Over the weekend China data was slightly lower than expected, but there was good news from the Trump/Xi front. The leaders agreed to call a temporary truce to the trade war: no further tariffs, more talks, and Trump will go easier on Huawei. Expect some risk-on (buying the rumour) into Monday. Also, Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend by six to nine months a deal with OPEC on reducing oil output. The news will likely take precence over the formal OPEC+ meeting that starts on Monday.
Finally, remember that the US will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day.

Themes for the Week: 

Central Bank Watch: the US-China trade truce might reduce the Fed's easing bias a tad. With bonds and gold pricing in bad news, we might see some respite (lower bonds, lower gold and higher USD). However, watch the ISM this week as traders will be quick to price in easing again if the PMI drops further. The NFP numbers will also play into FED expectations.
RBA: the market is expecting a cut on Tuesday and the data would justify it. This also means that any surprize reluctance to cut will result in a much higher AUD.

Data in the Week Ahead:

• CNY PMIs
• US ISM
• RBA decision
• UK PMI
• AU Retail Sales
• Cad Emloyment Report
• US Non-Farm Payrolls

On the Radar:

With the weekend news, I would expect risk-assets to receive a boost. I like Dax & SP500 longs; I like NZDJPY & CADJPY longs. I also like NZD strength vs. GBP & Eur weakness. USD will likely be exploited via news trades this week.