You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The weekend has passed without any market moving events, so the Sydney open should be fairly quiet. Tomorrow should be a key day for NAFTA talks and many US farmers are on edge - they know the US has much to lose by withdrawing from NAFTA. The Loonie will also be under scrutiny obvsiouly. President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday night at 9pmET, and US earnings will also continue to be watched. In Europe, keep an eye on the continuing coalition talks between Merkel and the SPD.
This week will be quite influential for the USD with the FOMC Rates Decision (join us Live to trade through it) and NFP-Friday which will put all other releases on the back burner. In the UK we get Markit PMIs while Europe will issue the flash GDP growth figures and inflation. Canada will issue it's GDP number.
China will release figures for both official and Caixin manufacturing PMI. Australia will issue the most recent CPI.
Going into the week, I remain bullish on US indices & Crude Oil; I remain bullish on the AUD and bearish on NZD and USD (although the USD stance in particular might change given the risk event).
domenica 28 gennaio 2018
lunedì 22 gennaio 2018
ESMA Will Kill Retail FX Trading in Europe: We Need to Act Quickly
YOUR OPINION AND INTERVENTION IS ESSENTIAL IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN A VIABLE TRADING ENVIRONMENT FOR RETAIL TRADERS IN EUROPE AND IN THE UK.
The ESMA has brought fourth further regulatory implementations and the most influential change is the amount of leverage available to retail traders in spot FX and CFD trading, that will be brought down to any amount between 5:1 and 30:1. This would effectively curtail retail FX trading, as it raises margin requirements and naturally reduces the "low cost appeal" that spot FX and CFD trading has had up till now.
To make this practical: right now in order to buy 10.000 EURUSD, brokers usually require €50 in margin. With the ESMA's new rules, you would need to put up €333.
There will be negative effects on brokers as well but for now, as a retail trader, I think we need to voice our thoughts and try to stop these regulators in their tracks. The ESMA has opened a consultation period for the next 3 weeks, within which time they will analyze any feedback recieved through their site.
Here is what I will be writing to the ESMA: while I am in favour of reducing the leverage for retail accounts, the ESMA should simply seek to harmonize Europe with the NFA and CFTC, hence limiting the leverage to 50:1 and nothing less.
This would mean that for a 10.000 EURUSD operation, you would be required to put up €200 for margin. It's still more than is required now, but it's a fair compromise given what the EMSA wants to do (eliminate retail trading basically).
How to Give Your Feedback to ESMA
L'ESMA ha requisiti molto specifici per inviare le tue opinioni. Di seguito sono riportati i passaggi:
1. Go to the ESMA page
2. Download the Call for Evidence document within "Related Documents".
3. Use Microsoft Word to insert your feedback.
4. Copy/paste the questions from page 9 into Microsoft Word. You are not forced to answer all questions, but at least answer “B” and “I”.
5. Save the word document.
6. Upload your word document under "Reply Module" and insert your data.
7. Click on "Reply".
Hopefully the ESMA will see reason.
The ESMA has brought fourth further regulatory implementations and the most influential change is the amount of leverage available to retail traders in spot FX and CFD trading, that will be brought down to any amount between 5:1 and 30:1. This would effectively curtail retail FX trading, as it raises margin requirements and naturally reduces the "low cost appeal" that spot FX and CFD trading has had up till now.
To make this practical: right now in order to buy 10.000 EURUSD, brokers usually require €50 in margin. With the ESMA's new rules, you would need to put up €333.
There will be negative effects on brokers as well but for now, as a retail trader, I think we need to voice our thoughts and try to stop these regulators in their tracks. The ESMA has opened a consultation period for the next 3 weeks, within which time they will analyze any feedback recieved through their site.
Here is what I will be writing to the ESMA: while I am in favour of reducing the leverage for retail accounts, the ESMA should simply seek to harmonize Europe with the NFA and CFTC, hence limiting the leverage to 50:1 and nothing less.
This would mean that for a 10.000 EURUSD operation, you would be required to put up €200 for margin. It's still more than is required now, but it's a fair compromise given what the EMSA wants to do (eliminate retail trading basically).
How to Give Your Feedback to ESMA
L'ESMA ha requisiti molto specifici per inviare le tue opinioni. Di seguito sono riportati i passaggi:
1. Go to the ESMA page
2. Download the Call for Evidence document within "Related Documents".
3. Use Microsoft Word to insert your feedback.
4. Copy/paste the questions from page 9 into Microsoft Word. You are not forced to answer all questions, but at least answer “B” and “I”.
5. Save the word document.
6. Upload your word document under "Reply Module" and insert your data.
7. Click on "Reply".
Hopefully the ESMA will see reason.
domenica 21 gennaio 2018
Weekly Game Plan 22.1.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
This week, we might see some volatility straight from the open. A partial US government shutdown was triggered at midnight on Friday as the Senate failed to pass the funding bill. The dysfunctional nature of DC politics could negatively impact markets in the short-term.
In Europe, senior members of Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) said on Saturday they were confident in initiating coalition talks with Merkel's conservatives. The condition is more concessions on labour, health and migration policies. The Euro could remain upbeat.
Onto the main data risk this week.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US indices and bearish on Bonds; I see Cad weakness appearing, alongside the more evident USD weakness. I'll be looking for continued weakness as the week opens, and will match it with GBP & Aud strength if we continue where we left off last week.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
This week, we might see some volatility straight from the open. A partial US government shutdown was triggered at midnight on Friday as the Senate failed to pass the funding bill. The dysfunctional nature of DC politics could negatively impact markets in the short-term.
In Europe, senior members of Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) said on Saturday they were confident in initiating coalition talks with Merkel's conservatives. The condition is more concessions on labour, health and migration policies. The Euro could remain upbeat.
Onto the main data risk this week.
- Both the BOJ and ECB meet. The BOJ is worried about the JPY surging higher after recent optimism on inflation led the market to believe in policy normalization. The ECB faces a similar challenge after the latest Minutes had a hawkish tilt, with ECB members showing concern over the economic implications of a stronger Euro.
- NAFTA talks will commence in Canada on Tuesday and will affect the Loonie no doubt, along with it's own event risk: CPI and Retail Sales.
- US earnings season continues, but don't forget advance Q4 US GDP.
- In the UK we will see employment data and preliminary Q4 GDP.
- In NZD we have CPI.
Going into the week I remain bullish on US indices and bearish on Bonds; I see Cad weakness appearing, alongside the more evident USD weakness. I'll be looking for continued weakness as the week opens, and will match it with GBP & Aud strength if we continue where we left off last week.
Good Luck!
domenica 14 gennaio 2018
Weekly Game Plan 15.1.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The Sunday Telegraph is quoting a report by Fitch saying the Fed Funds rate could rise much faster than the market is expecting end even faster than the Fed’s own forecasts. Fitch believes the Fed will hike four times in 2018. If the market buys into this, it could breathe some life into the USD. Looking ahead, key China data and earnings reports from US banks and multi-national companies will be in focus. In this context, the Euro's rally seems suspect given ECB's Weidmann has recently played down risk of imminent rate hike. Beyond these themes, the main data risk is represented by the Bank of Canada's Rates decision, UK CPI & Retail Sales and AU Employment.
Don't expect much volatility into Monday given the US bank holiday and no real market moving news released over the weekend.
My initial watchlist this week has Dow & S&P long, Crude Long, and a basket of Eur/Gbp/Aud/Nzd vs. USD. Cad will be observed opportunistically following the BOC decision.
Good Luck!
Here is this week's Game Plan:
The Sunday Telegraph is quoting a report by Fitch saying the Fed Funds rate could rise much faster than the market is expecting end even faster than the Fed’s own forecasts. Fitch believes the Fed will hike four times in 2018. If the market buys into this, it could breathe some life into the USD. Looking ahead, key China data and earnings reports from US banks and multi-national companies will be in focus. In this context, the Euro's rally seems suspect given ECB's Weidmann has recently played down risk of imminent rate hike. Beyond these themes, the main data risk is represented by the Bank of Canada's Rates decision, UK CPI & Retail Sales and AU Employment.
Don't expect much volatility into Monday given the US bank holiday and no real market moving news released over the weekend.
My initial watchlist this week has Dow & S&P long, Crude Long, and a basket of Eur/Gbp/Aud/Nzd vs. USD. Cad will be observed opportunistically following the BOC decision.
Good Luck!
domenica 7 gennaio 2018
Weekly Game Plan 8.1.18
You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Welcome to 2018 markets!
Over the weekend, Fed's Williams was upbeat on Trump's Tax Cuts and eyes 3 hikes in 2018. This week will mark the return of many participants to the markets and by mid Jan we should start to see the first trends of the year take off. We are still in a low volatility/strong growth situation worldwide, which is benefitting carry trades. US equities are strong and still "fairly priced" if we look at P/Es.
USD: Main market movers will be CPI and PPI but this will be a heavy week for Fed speak with all of the emphasis placed upon regional Fed Presidents. The market will be sensitive to additional hawkishness.
EUR: In Europe watch for the ECB minutes and Ger Factory Orders & Ind. Prod.
GBP: industrial production, construction output will be the focal points
AsiaPac: In Australia, retail sales is the main focus. China has a busy week with balance of trade, consumer and producer prices and foreign direct investment.
Going into the week I am bullish on US equities and Crude; I'm also bullish comm-dolls vs. USD and JPY.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Welcome to 2018 markets!
Over the weekend, Fed's Williams was upbeat on Trump's Tax Cuts and eyes 3 hikes in 2018. This week will mark the return of many participants to the markets and by mid Jan we should start to see the first trends of the year take off. We are still in a low volatility/strong growth situation worldwide, which is benefitting carry trades. US equities are strong and still "fairly priced" if we look at P/Es.
USD: Main market movers will be CPI and PPI but this will be a heavy week for Fed speak with all of the emphasis placed upon regional Fed Presidents. The market will be sensitive to additional hawkishness.
EUR: In Europe watch for the ECB minutes and Ger Factory Orders & Ind. Prod.
GBP: industrial production, construction output will be the focal points
AsiaPac: In Australia, retail sales is the main focus. China has a busy week with balance of trade, consumer and producer prices and foreign direct investment.
Going into the week I am bullish on US equities and Crude; I'm also bullish comm-dolls vs. USD and JPY.
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