Weekly Game Plan - 19.7.2015

Greek banks will reopen this week, following the modest boost in ELA late last week. Any further adjustments in ECB support for Greek banks or local Political chaos will trigger further volatility, but the market is most likely happy to move on, focus on other themes and/or finally take a break and enjoy the above average summer heat.

What events can the market look forward to this week? The Aussie sits close to its cyclical lows ahead of the release of Q2 CPI and a key speech by RBA Governor Stevens. The outlook remains bearish for the time being. More in the "Themes for the week" section.

1. Themes for the Week

- Greece to meet ECB payment on Monday and a further parliamentary vote is scheduled.
- Markets to refocus on global divergence in monetary policy. Euro remains a sell on rallies from this perspective.
- UK retail sales, BoE minutes and China/euro area PMIs in spotlight.
- More weak Japanese data continues to leave the door open to further BoJ easing
- Some analysts still calling for a RBNZ rate cut.

2. Who Said What

-  Spot Gold Falls more than 3% to lowest since March 2010

-  Germany's Merkel Says on German TV Channel ard Schaeuble's Proposal for Temporary Grexit was on table but we chose another Option; Says Capital Controls are still in Place in Greece, That's not a Normal Life so have to Negotiate Quickly; Regarding Speculation about Possible Schaeuble Resignation, No one has asked me to be relieved of their Duties; Can't have a Classic Haircut in Currency Union but this is Possible outside Currency Union

- China V/Finmin Zhu Guangyao says China must Learn Lessons from Stock Market Rout, To Focus on Supervision; Quota of 2 Trillion Yuan for Debt Swap Program Should be Sufficient for now

3. Calendar

4. Look around the Markets

Tough to fight the "complacent" rally in equities

USD strength quite evident in FX, and best played vs. Cad, Nzd or Aud at current levels.

Good Luck this week!