You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
Friday closed with solid USD strength following the Senate approval of a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year – that is seen as clearing the way for Republicans to pursue a tax-cut package. This week the market will be hoping for further evidence that Republicans will fast-track tax reform. On top of this, speculation on the next Fed Chairman will also be doing the rounds with Powell, Taylor as main candidates.
The political crisis in Spain continues to escalate as Rajoy announced on Saturday he would invoke special constitutional powers to fire the regional government and force a new election to counter the region's move towards independence. Catalan President Puigdemont called Rajoy's moves the "worst attacks against the people of Catalonia" since Spain's military dictatorship. The Euro hasn't responded to the political crisis yet, but capital has started to leave Europe.
PM Abe is en-route to secure his "supermajority" again in Japanese elections. This could provoke a knee-jerk reaction to sell JPY due to one of the cornerstones of “Abenomics” is a weak currency.
USD: In the US, the most important release will be the advance estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter.
EUR: the ECB decision is the main focus this week, beyond flash PMI data.
GBP: in the UK, investors will be closely watching the preliminary estimate of GDP growth.
CAD: the Bank of Canada policy decision is the main event, along with the accompanying press conference.
AsiaPac: in Australia, consumer price inflation, producer inflation and foreign trade prices will be in the spotlight. New Zealand releases the trade balance numbers instead.
Going into the week I remain bullish on the Dow and bearish on the US10YR bond. In FX, I'm bearish NZD, JPY and CAD vs USD.
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