Here is this week's Game Plan:
Welcome to the first “real” week of trading in 2017.
USD: Earnings season and Fedspeak (Yellen and a spate of regional Presidents) will be the main focus. On Friday we will get JP Morgan, BofA, BlackRock, Wells Fargo and PNC Financial’s Q4 and full-year results. But watch out also for the multinationals that might start to feel the pressure of a stronger USD. Beyond that, Retail Sales (also on Friday) will be closely watched. Before that, there are rumours of a “general news conference” from President-Elect Trump (Wed).
EUR: politics will be again on stage, as Italy’s Constitutional Court reviews a request to hold yet another referendum – this time on labour market reforms passed by former PM Renzi. The words “referendum” or “elections”, and “Europe” in the same sentence is beginning to spook market participants. Beyond this, we’ll see Industrial Production figures, and German Q4 Economic growth.
GBP: The market will most likely need to factor in PM May’s thoughts from Sunday’s interview. As Sky reports: Theresa May hints that Britain may leave the single market as part of Brexit saying the UK cannot hold on to "bits of membership". November industrial production and construction output (both Wed) will give further indications of the pace of Q4 GDP growth.
CAD: Canadian data on Friday was quite good. Along with steady Crude Oil Prices, this week the Loonie might remain bid ahead of next week’s BoC meeting.
Asia: Chinese CPI and PPI (Tue) will be under scrutiny this week, along with import/export data (Fri).
My initial watchlist for this week includes: Cad longs vs. Jpy, Gbp, Nzd. Potentially GbpUsd shorts, and longs in indices (Dow, Dax).
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