You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. My new Coaching Page is also online.
Here is this week's Game Plan:
More delays on the horizon for Trumponomics: Republican Senator Heller on Saturday outright rejected the Senate healthcare bill – making it five Republican Senators who have come out against the bill. Expect a fairly quiet week ahead with little in the way of event risk to push markets around. Watch out for comments out of the “Forum on central banking” (June 26/28 in Portugal). Fed Chair Yellen will also be speaking on Tuesday in London. Crude remains in a tough spot as oil inventories don’t seem to be drawing down, even with cuts from OPEC. US shale activity is rising and making OPEC efforts worthless at the moment.
USD: we’ll see the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a rush to strike a health care agreement, and some Fed speak early in the week.
EUR: Ger IFO, EU CPI & Consumer Readings will be under scrutiny this week, alongside any comments from the Central Bankers' Conference.
GBP: Markets remain weary on GBP. Hawkish BOE rhetoric vs. Brexit consequences make for unclear sentiment at the moment despite a bearish overall backdrop. The Queen's speech has created a deadline (10 days) after which there will be a vote of confidence for the current government. If May loses this vote of confidence, Corbyn would have approximately 2 weeks to form a government (unlikely). The other scenario is yet another round of elections, right when political stability is needed most (Brexit Talks).
CAD: BoC speakers and a pair of quarterly updates to the BoC’s surveys of business and lender attitudes will be the main focus.
NZD: May trade report, BNZ business confidence survey & May building consents this week will be in play after the less dovish RBNZ.
Slim pickings this week. I remain bearish on Crude Oil and bullish on Nzd vs. Gbp, Jpy, Aud.
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