Weekly Game Plan 5 Aug 19

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces. Our best pieces can be found in one placehere. If you want to get an idea for how I trade trends, this webinar will help. If you want to know how I Trade the News, this plan will help. 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

No further news was issued over the weekend so the drivers will likely be the same as where we left off on Friday: Trump smacking further tariffs on China, and China pledging to retaliate. In other news, Brexit fears continue as a close advisor to Boris Johnson said that Brexit cannot be stopped. As a reminder, we’re going into the summer doldrums so traders’ risk appetites will be decreasing, and the markets will probably slow down a tad. The only volatility will be caused by news events and these particular themes.

Themes for the Week:

• Trade War: all eyes will be on China’s retaliation (if/how it is deployed) after Trump’s abrupt tariff increase. All the while Trump has been saying “things are going well with China”…This took precedence over NFP numbers which were not great to be honest.
• RBA and RBNZ: the RBA is expected to remain on hold with a dovish statement, and the RBNZ is expected to cut. The prevailing consensus is that central banks cannot really remain idle when the FED is cutting.
• GBP: the Pound will remain under pressure so long as the prospects of a no-deal Brexit remain on the table. Weekend papers haven’t provided any further clues on this. PMI and GDP data will be influential.

Data in the week ahead:

• ISM Non-Manuf. PMI (expected to be stronger)
• NZ Employment Change (tough call)
• RBA Decision (market expecting a dovish tone)
• RBNZ Decision (market expecting a rate cut)
• UK GDP (Expected weaker)
• CAD Unemployment

On the Radar:

Going into the week I am biased short on Dax and Nasdaq, and biased long on Jpy and Chf vs. Aud & Nzd weakness.