venerdì 18 settembre 2015

European Open: USD on Sale

Today we must start with the key takeaways from the FOMC.

(here is the link to the full statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm)

- International conditions weighing heavily
- Financial market volatility, stronger, USD, volatility etc weighing against hikes
- Labor market one of several indicators, but less dominant than it seemed in July
- Inflation softness and drop in inflation expectations given higher profile
- Yellen suggests that her NAIRU is below current levels
- Dots the only thing pointing to 2015 now
- 2% not a ceiling will move before 2% but no timing on when
- General message is things are getting better but we are not there and are more focused on the risks.

This is definitely dovish for Risk Assets & USD (scenario C from yesterday's note). Shorting into rallies on equities, and buying into GbpUsd (after a solid CPI print) & AudUsd (after bullish comments from Stevens o/n) dips seems like a solid play for now. See the charts for more.

Charts for today:




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