European equity markets showing some caution ahead of the last NFP report before the much-anticipated September FOMC meeting. Asian markets also lower Friday.
On NFP: muted reaction topside likely, unless it is 250k or more; consensus stuck between 190k and 205k; bad news would be a sub 170k number.
On the upcomming G20: looks unlikely to produce a market moving outcome judging by the draft statement. Draft showed no mention of recent revaluation by China and attendant volatility in asset markets. However, policymakers appear to take the start of the tightening cycle in the US for granted as the draft simply notes that "some countries are likely to tighten and should be as transparent as possible to mitigate spillover". Since the draft statement usually provides a good indication of later official statements, it is not clear that anything further will emerge from the meeting.
Charts for this morning:
Euro weakness still evident post-ECB. Shorts worth a shot around key levels. No entries after EU lunchtime. Don't gamble on the NFP print.
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