Themes for the week and potential opportunities
- US on Holiday Monday, but big week ahead: CPI (Fri) is expected to rise, as Crude stops falling; Empire State and Philly Fed (Tue and Thur, respectively) will also show how much the economy is suffering from a strong USD. But most importantly we will see the FOMC minues (Wed)
- Draghi's testimony to EU parliament on Monday and ECB minutes (Thur) will be the highlights for the Euro.
- Chinese market opens after week-long holiday; trade data (Sun/Mon) will be watched and will contribute to risk on/off sentiment.
- Busy week for UK: inflation data (Tue) expected weak m/m and slightly higher y/y; wage growth (Wed) expected to rise slighly and unemployment might drop slightly. Finally, Retail Sales (Fri) are expected to rise. All of these data points however will not likely shift perceptions at the BoE.
- EU summit (Thurs-Fri) expected to pass verdict on PM Cameron’s renegotiation efforts. Early Referendum date: June 23rd; September at the latest if no deal is reached.
- Some analysts think we are drawing close to another market meltdown as US HY, US Banks, EM assets, EU banks and EU Credit markets are all under pressure.
For now, I continue to look for shorts on EU indices & Crude. I continue to look for longs on Gold. In FX, EurUsd longs & UsdJpy (or other Jpy crosses) shorts continue to be the favoured plays.
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