Themes for the week and potential opportunites
- Remember the Holiday on Good Friday and Easter Monday
- Central Bank efforts sustain risk-assets
- Dollar and US rate hike expectations fall after FOMC; the FedSpeak this week will most likely shed more light on the recent developments. We'll also see US durable goods (Thu) which are expected to drop, and US GDP 3rd estimate (Fri) expected to remain stable.
- Super Tuesday for the Eurozone: activity indicators will be watched for signs of policy-assisted improvement. On the same day we will have German IFO &ZEW (Tue), Eurozone ‘flash’ PMIs (Tue) and expectations are for a modest increase is expected in all indicators.
- In the UK, CPI (Tue) is expected to grind higher whereas Public finances (Tue) will mostly go unwatched; Retail sales (Thu) instead are poised for a drop.
- Eyes on Jpy crosses: we are nearing intervention territory and the BoJ was already "checking prices" last Thursday.
I continue to favour longs on US indices & Crude, and also will watch CadJpy longs for the same reason. USD weakness continues to be the dominant theme in FX space, so UsdCad shorts/AudUsd longs continue to be in favour. A short term dip into EurUsd and GbpUsd might also be viable ahead of key data this week.
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