Weekly Game Plan - 6.3.2016

Themes for the week and potential opportunities

- Risk still bought after better US data, higher oil prices and potential future policy easing. 

- ECB (Thur) is expected to ease this week: market participants are expecting a deposit rate by at least 10bps to -0.4% and a potential expantion of its asset purchase programme. Leading up to the event, we have Ger factory orders (Mon) & industrial production (Tue).

- China to announce 2016 GDP target and ramp up government spending. Market participants want to see conditions for a stable yuan and some kind of formal plan for the currency’s exchange rate against a basket of currencies.

- BoE’s Carney (Tue) will testify in front of the TSC on the pros and cons of the UK’s EU membership, which has the potential to impact markets.  

- In the US Fed’s Fischer and Brainard are scheduled to speak (Mon) and markets will be looking for their reaction to the more recent positive economic data.

- BoC and RBNZ rate decisions (both Wed). Nobody expects BoC to change it's stance ahead of  the Federal Budget on March 22nd. As for the RBNZ,  the market is expecting no cut in March but a

substantially increased chance of cuts as the year progresses.

I seek continued strength in Crude and in the comm-dolls in the coming week. UsdCad shorts, GbpNzd, EurAud shorts and potentially AudUsd longs look like the best places to get seated into before the main events of the week.