Weekly Game Plan - 24.4.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

French election turnout has been strong (70% at 17.00 CET) which, according to previous speculation, would favour Macron. Initial exit polls put LePen at 25% and Macron at 22%. This was largely expected so the markets will be rather relax if this is confirmed. All bank reports expect Macron to win over LePen on May 7th. Expect Euro strength (vs. Jpy in particular) & Cac40 strength. In other news, big week ahead with 190 US companies reporting earnings, BOJ and ECB (no change expected but BOJ might taper).

USD: quiet start to the week for US data. FED’s Kashkari will speak on Monday; US Building Permits (Wed) will be followed by Durable Goods, US trades, Pending Home Sales and weekly jobless claims (Thur) but the key US data will be Friday’s Q1 advance GDP, along with Chicago PMI.

EUR: German IFO (Mon) followed by EZ sentiment data (Thur) and inflation data (Fri).

GBP: only data print is on Friday with Q1 prelim GDP.

CAD: after softer CPI data on Friday, and the large drop in Crude, the Loonie will take it’s cue from Retail Sales and Crude Oil Inventories (Wed), and GDP (Fri).

Asia: Aussie & Kiwi markets will be closed for ANZAC day so movement to recommence on Wednesday with Aus Q1 CPI. Below target inflation has been a major concern for the RBA and the focus will be on the underlying CPI data. RBA’s Lowe will be on the wires Thursday. Other Aus data will be Export and Import prices (Thur), Private Sector and Housing Credit (Fri).

BoJ (Thurs) will release it’s monetary policy statement and press conference. There is speculation about a stealth taper going on. No official move is expected but keep ears open.

Going into the week I remain bullish on GBP and bearish on CAD. GbpCad, GbpAud are all standout candidates as are CadJpy short, Crude short, FTSE short. Given what we know thus far about the French exit polls, Euro may become a strong candidate, as will Cac40.


Good Luck!