Weekly Game Plan - 10.4.17

You can always find my weekly analysis in the FXRENEW Blog each week, along with articles and thought leadership pieces 

Here is this week's Game Plan:

Not much concrete information from Trump/Xi summit: just an agreement to work together to narrow disagreements and find common ground for cooperation. More importantly, US Q1 earning season kicks off in the week ahead and could put the post-US election Trump rally to the test. Also, a US navy strike group is heading towards he Korean peninsula. FED’S Dudley was quite hawkish Friday and assisted the reversal in USTs.

USD: Regarding NFP, consensus is that the report wasn’t bad enough to change Fed expectations and could confirm to some Fed members that the US is moving very close to full employment. Fed expectations will be in focus when Yellen speaks (Mon), then we have Kashkari (Tue). Then we have PPI and UoM sentiment (Thur); CPI & Retail sales (Fri).

EUR: Light calendar this week. GER ZEW (Tue), Ger CPI (Thur) so expect polls/news regarding French elections to be more influential.

GBP: Influential data prints out with CPI (Tue) and Unemployment (Wed)

CAD: Key week for the Loonie with the BOC decision, mon.pol. report & presser (Wed), Crude Inventories (Wed), Manuf. Sales (Thur). Regarding the BoC, the risks lean toward a clearer dovish bias.

Asia: Watch out for China CPI (Wed), Trade balance (Thur)

Busier week for Aussie as well: NAB business confidence (Tue), Aud Unemployment (Thur), RBA financial stability review (Thur),

Going into the week I remain bullish on the USD given the reversal in Yields. As such, USD strength vs. GBP, AUD, EUR are likely candidates. But Cad, into last week’s close, was also showing strength and as such, CAD strength vs. GBP, AUD, NZD is also on the list. In other markets, Crude Oil continues it’s ascent which might prove more difficult with USD strength. Cac40 & FTSE still look bullish also.


Good Luck!