So retail sales surprised to the upside across the board and even had a few upward revisions. Atlanta Fed GDP Now is 1.9% for Q2 (up from 1.1% estimate before retail sales), following -0.7% in Q1.
And yet...the market response was tepid. Why? Because as we were saying yesterday, market participants are not evaluating the data at face value. What counts is whether the FOMC will have the proof it needs to raise rates in September (or December?). And with thesse GDP figures, teh Q1 weakness is still not being offset to a large enough degree. So the market is left with more uncertainty...something humans hate.
So, luckily enough our GbpUsd position is still in the black although EurGbp was stopped out.
GbpUsd 4H chart with upside targets
Looking ahead:
USD slightly bid, holding down Euro and Gbp pairs.
Indicies rejected the topside yesterday and closed
with rather intimidating movement for bulls.
Maybe the recovery has finished?
Crude continues to find sellers around 61s and
buyers around 56s...range still in play.
So while I don't see any great setups this morning, something to watch for a deeper pullback should be GbpNzd:
GbpNzd Daily
And onto the calendar for today:
not much risk event for Europe,
but some US data out. I don't recommend opening fresh positions
on a Friday afternoon so I don't expect much action today.
Of course a Greek resolution would definitely liven things up!
Good Luck!
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