EU Open Report - 26.06.2015

TGI-F!

The Kiwi was caught in 2-way traffic overnight. The initial dip happened on comments from the RBNZ that the exchange rate remains at unjustifiable levels. The subsequent bounce was partly driven by the positive surprise on the trade balance.

Little of substance to report on the Euro. Still no major progress towards an agreement between Greece and its creditors. Since the discussions will continue into the weekend, producing a substantial gap risk for the open on Sunday, we might see more substantial position trimming into the NY close today.

1. Who Said What

- From the menu of crises, Greece eats into Europe’s agenda – Reuters.

-  German Chanc Merkel – Saturday EuroGroup decisive for Greek debt deal – RTRS.

- Japan May core CPI +0.1% y/y

- Japan May unemployment 3.3%, as expected

- RBNZ Statement of Intent – To explore macro-prudential policies, bank stress  testing, central bank reiterates NZD still too high.

- NZ May trade surplus NZ$350 mln, to-day deficit NZ$2.57 bln, NZ$100 mln and NZ$2.9 bln eyed, May imports NZ$4.01 bln, exports NZ$4.36 bln

2. Calendar

Not much on the docket today

3. Asian Equity & FX roundup

Asian equities ended the week down, with Shanghai leading down 4%. Nikkei was flat on the session, while the ASX was hit by commodity prices and ended up -1.5%.  Jpy crosses were in demand almost across the board on Greece jitters and risk off sentiment prevailing. The Euro complex was also on the back-foot in Asia, with pre-weekend position closing. Gbp better bid. Nzd offered on RBNZ statement of intent.

GbpNzd 1H chart - momentum is back, looking for a long.

GbpUsd 1H chart - momentum not there yet, but stalking it

Good Luck today!