Weekly Game Plan - 14.06.2015

1. Event Risk and Themes in play:

- Fed policy to be unchanged, but a September rate rise remains in the cards
- Greece deadline approaches with June 18th the next key date
- Expected rises in headline inflation will help to further alleviate deflation concerns
- In the UK, the focus is on MPC minutes, wage growth and the unemployment rate

- US growth rebounding as expected putting Fed on track for September hike
- US bond yields have more upside over the summer
-  Stock market overvalued, choppy & nervous, but many still calling for further upside.


2. Calendar for Monday

source: investing.com

3. Look around the markets:

Vix is rebounding from the lows once more...easier to see higher volatility than lower volatility. Usually in the stock markets this means higher odds of declines than rallies.

Crude still inside the range, but holding.

Bond market showing the long end pushed down by increased inflation expectations wheras the short end is much higher still - sign that the market is not yet convinced of a September hike. The short end will have much catching up to do if/when Yellen makes her move.

In FX space, just like the past week, we continue to favour long Gbp vs. USD and NZD; we also favour short NZD vs USD. Not much else looking trendy yet.

Oh, and Deutsche Bank issues a note on the current increase in Volatility in FX. The attempt to establish who the culprit is...I'll give readers 3 guesses...but you'll only need to remember who the heavy hitters are, in FX, to get it right:

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Good Luck this week!