1. Themes for the Week
The markets are obviously 100% concentrated on the Greek drama. The real deadline is approaching. Also, Greek withdrawls are continuing at elevated rates. Tsipras has called a referendum. The referendum question is not whether to stay in the Euro or not, but whether to accept the deal proposed by creditors. At this point we cannot ignore the possibility that they are more interested in a debt writedown and economic stimulus than in staying in the EU.
Both Greece, Europe and the market will be watching for ECB comments on what they will do for the other peripheral countries as contagion is in the air.
Elsewhere:
- US payrolls report to show labour market is continuing to tighten
- June PMIs to highlight the strength of the UK economy
GMT time - souce: FXStreet
3. Look around the markets
Indices chopping up & down...upside in the EU indices will
hinge on Greece most likely. Russell & Nikkei potentially easier
to play.
Bonds showing increasing belief in a rate hike soon...
FX waiting for Greece to get it's act together or lose it alltogether.
I still like Gbp longs and Nzd Shorts going into the week.
But the Euro could also prove to be active & volatile this week.
Most likely hit & run mode is best suited.
Good Luck!
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